本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-10-26 14:00 编辑
【原文标题】India to outperform China by 2013
【中文标题】2013年：印度超越中国
【译者】土鳖连长
【登载媒体】CNN 经济博客
【原文链接】http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/25/india-to-outperform-china-by-2013/?&hpt=hp_c2
记者：CNN, Saga McFarland
根据安永会计师事务所（Erns & Young)最新的一项报告显示，印度被认为会在2013年度的GDP增长数据中超越亚洲的发电机--中国。
印度预计会取得9.5%的增长率，和中国的9%相比很接近。
这两个国家都在一个由25个国家组成的被称为新兴市场（RGMs）的联盟中扮演着榜样作用，起着同样作用的还包括巴西和俄国。
该报告以牛津经济增长模型为基础，对贯穿这些急速增长的市场的宏观经济趋势进行了演算，结果表明中印两国面对全球经济低迷对其庞大的国内市场和低油价以及商品价的格影响显得相当有韧性。
但他们仍需对通货膨胀保持警惕，印度八月份的通货膨胀率增至10.9%，急需控制。
报告中写道：“一旦控制住通货膨胀，利率将不会继续上升，人们将会更愿意花钱消费，商业环境就会普遍好转，并会在2012年期间继续快速稳定的增长“。
该报告同时提醒说，如果欧元区的债务危机迟迟得不到解决，潜在的欧洲经济衰退所产生影响将会带来一个严酷的未来。
该报告断言称，新兴市场国家2013年的平均GDP增长率将降至3.2%，估计几乎只有今年同期6.2%的一半。
【原文】
India to outperform China by 2013 Posted by:
CNN, Saga McFarland India is expected to overtake fellow Asian powerhouse China in terms of GDP growth in 2013, according to a new report from Ernst and Young.India is forecast to achieve 9.5% growth, compared with China’s expected 9%. Both countries remain among the top performers in the group of 25 so called Rapid Growth Markets (RGMs), which also includes Brazil and Russia. The report, which is based on the Oxford Economics Growth Model and offers insight on macroeconomic trends across these fast-growing markets, attributes China and India’s relative resilience in the face of global economic turmoil to their large domestic markets and low oil and commodity prices . But it cautions that inflation, which rose to 10.9% in India in August, needs to be reined in. “Once inflation is in check, and interest rates are no longer rising, consumers will be more willing to spend, supporting a general improvement in the business environment, with growth steadily accelerating during 2012,” the report said. The report also warns of a grim future in the aftermath of a potential European recession if the Eurozone debt crisis is not resolved. Average GDP growth among RGMs would stagnate to 3.2% in 2013, the report predicts, almost half of the current 6.2% estimate for the same year.
【网友评论】
- Vikram Singh
Outperform China by 2013 in what? Bribery? Scams? Unholy political dalliances? Get a reality check CNN – it is only the upper crust of people that are doing better in India; the poor remain as they were many centuries ago. Honestly, this article is a joke and one of the crude perceptions Western countries have of the East.October 25, 2011 at 7:58 am 2013年什么地方超越中国？贿赂？诈骗？邪恶的政治游戏？CNN应确认一下现实：在印度仅仅只有上层社会的人活得滋润，穷人仍旧像是活在数个世纪之前。老实说，这篇文章是个笑话，并且只是西方国家对东方的拙劣认识之一。
- AJ
If all of India were to be thinking like Vikram singh.. commentor above, India would have never achieved what it has achieved today. Macroeconomy is not as simple as you think Mr.Vikram.October 25, 2011 at 8:26 am |
如果所有的印度人都认同楼上的想法...印度就不永远不会取得今天所取得的成就。宏观经济也并非如您所想的那样简单。 - arjay
If you look at the population and if the bottom line is improvement in human life, GDP,etc may offer the best gauge. Fact is, wealth distribution is still amassive problem but in all India overtaking China is a feat itself.October 25, 2011 at 8:32 am
如果你着眼于考虑人口、改善民生的最低标准以及GDP之类，就可能会得到最佳结论。事实是：财富的分配仍是一个巨大的问题，印度全方面超过中国其实是王婆卖瓜。
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