【纽约时报111115】争端岛屿影响中菲关系走向

weater76

Dispute Over Islands Underscores Philippines’ Rocky Relations With China


PALAWAN, Philippines — The rhetorical missiles fired by a state-owned Chinese newspaper late last month landed squarely on the shores of this westernmost province and a few dozen kilometers from the coral reefs and scrub-covered islets claimed by China, the Philippines and a number of other nations.

“If these countries don’t want to change their ways with China, they will need to prepare for the sound of cannons,” wrote the unapologetically nationalistic Global Times, referring to the 750 islands and spits of land in the South China Sea, known as the Spratly Islands, which are also contested by Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.

The following day, a riposte of sorts crackled on the sugar-white sands of Palawan as hundreds of American and Philippine Marines scurried from rubber dinghies and stormed into the adjacent jungle with machine guns blazing. It may have been a drill, but the symbolism was not lost on the throng of Filipino journalists on the beach for the occasion.

Although both militaries said the location and timing were coincidental, the Philippine commander, Maj. Gen. Juancho Sabban, appeared to relish the show of force at a time when China’s growing assertiveness has rattled Manila and neighboring countries with claims to the islands.

“The mere deployment of missiles or sound of cannons will not scare us from protecting our own territory,” General Sabban said as the drill got under way.

China’s increasingly muscular claims over the Spratlys and two other island groups — one off the coast of Vietnam and another closer to Japan — have also unnerved the United States, which in recent weeks has been telegraphing plans to strengthen its presence in the region. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton made a stopover in Manila on Tuesday to observe the 60th anniversary of the defense treaty that binds the two countries.

But even as it takes comfort in its longstanding alliance with the United States, the Philippines, a former American colony, is eager to find common ground with its giant neighbor to the north, whose growing economic pull it is finding impossible to resist.

Although still relatively modest, Chinese investment in the Philippines doubled last year to $86 million, and bilateral trade, at $30 billion, was up 35 percent. During his first state visit to Beijing in August, President Benigno S. Aquino III brought along 200 business leaders and courted investment in the hope that Chinese largess might buoy long-neglected infrastructure projects.

In the months after his June 2010 election, Mr. Aquino made some striking concessions to China. The Philippines was one of the few democratic counties last year to hold back its ambassador from the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony honoring the jailed Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. A few months later, Manila angered Taiwan by honoring Beijing’s request to deport to mainland China 14 fraud suspects who hailed from Taiwan.

But the limits of Manila’s influence were revealed shortly after Mr. Aquino’s visit, when the mainland Chinese authorities executed three Filipinos accused of drug trafficking despite Mr. Aquino’s clemency pleas. The executions, and an increase in skirmishes between fishermen and naval vessels from both countries, have fueled Philippine determination to stand up to Beijing.

Walden Bello, a congressman who made a symbolic touchdown on one of the contested islands last summer, said the Philippines was grappling with the realization that China’s economic prowess would probably eclipse that of United States.

“Everybody has been affected by the sense that American power is on the wane and that China’s is on the rise,” he said. “But the fact that China would make such a brash and astounding claim to the entire South China Sea is disconcerting. I think there’s a feeling that we can’t allow our economic dependence on China let them trample all over us.”

China does not claim that the entire South China Sea is under its sovereignty. But it does make disputed claims to island territories in the sea that would, if recognized, give it sway over developing resources in large parts of the sea, which are among the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

The sea has substantial oil and gas reserves that, if fully developed, could someday rival those of Kuwait. Also at stake are rich fishing grounds that by some estimates supply about a tenth of the world’s commercial seafood.

In injecting itself into the dispute — beginning last year when Mrs. Clinton declared the issue a matter of “national interest” — the United States has emphasized the area’s crucial role as a conduit for maritime trade.

Despite its vulnerable economy and a weak military that relies on warships from World War II, the Philippines has not shied away from confrontation. In a gesture of patriotic bravado, government officials and the news media have taken to calling the region the West Philippine Sea, and Mr. Aquino has been vocally asserting the country’s claims to the Spratlys.

“Our message to the world is clear: What is ours is ours. Setting foot on Recto Bank is no different from setting foot on Recto Avenue,” he said in a recent state of the union address, referring to an oil-rich area 80 miles from Palawan and a prominent thoroughfare in Manila.

Mr. Aquino has ordered increased Coast Guard patrols in Recto Bank, and he has been avidly cementing ties with Vietnam and Japan. He has also been pushing a multilateral approach to resolving the Spratlys dispute, despite China’s insistence that each country’s claim be tackled through one-on-one negotiation.

Filipinos and the Chinese have ties that reach back centuries. Many of the country’s most prominent businessmen are ethnic Chinese, and Mr. Aquino’s mother, former President Corazon Aquino, traced her roots to coastal Fujian Province.

Few analysts expect the two countries to go to war over the Spratlys issue, but increasingly frequent skirmishes have kept the issue at a low boil. And many wonder whether the United States, mutual defense treaties aside, would join the fray over tiny uninhabited islands.

“Although there is an appreciation that Aquino is engaged on this issue, the anti-China rhetoric coming from the government is not seen to represent the overall interests of the country,” said Aileen Baviera, dean of the Asian Center at the University of the Philippines. “Tough talk from a country with a very small stick is not always very pragmatic.”

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