【每日电讯201119】高盛首席：中国经济将在2027超过美国

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Jim O'Neill: China could overtake US economy by 2027

Jim O'Neill, the head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, has predicted that China could overtake the United States as the world's largest economy by 2027 and urged a fundamental rethink of the operation of the G7 which he believes is too dominated by the West.

By Kamal Ahmed9:30PM GMT 19 Nov 2011
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8901828/Jim-ONeill-China-could-overtake-US-economy-by-2027.html

In his long awaited update to his seminal 2001 paper on the BRIC economies of Brazil, India, Russia and China, Jim O'Neill says that the economies he highlighted have exceeded even his expectations in the way they have become global powerhouses.
Mr O'Neill says that the four countries should no longer be considered "emerging" economies but rather "growth" economies and should be given their rightful place as the top table of power.
A decade ago, Mr O'Neill sparked a new way of looking at the global economy when he coined the term BRIC. A decade on, his new book The Growth Map reveals the next stages in the progress of the non-Western economies which have come to dominate corporate life across the world.
The book is serialised in The Sunday Telegraph today with further extracts in tomorrow and Tuesday's Daily Telegraph and online at telegraph.co.uk. "Our updated research suggests that China's economic output – its gross domestic product – could match that of the US as early as 2027, and perhaps even sooner," he writes.
"Since 2001, China's GDP has risen fourfold, from $1.5 trillion to $6 trillion [£949bn to £3.7trillion] Economically speaking, China has created three new Chinas in the past decade. And it's likely that the combined GDP of the four BRIC nations will exceed that of the US sometime before 2020."

Mr O'Neill, once described by Businessweek as "Goldman's rock star", runs a division of Goldman that has $800bn assets under management and is one of the world's most in-demand economists. "Back in 2001, it was obvious to me that the institutional framework for running the world economy needed an overhaul," he said. "When I coined the acronym BRICs I argued that the G7, G8 and IMF [International Monetary Fund] were no longer suitable entities to deal with the challenges of the new world. Today it is even more obvious.
"There is more than national or political pride at stake here. Unless the BRICs are embraced more fully by the powers that now dominate the world's economic policy councils, we cannot enjoy the full benefits of their growth."
Mr O'Neill said that the G7 group of nations – America, Germany, Canada, UK, Italy, France and Japan – were "hardly representative" of the global economic order. He said the huge changes to the world since the G7 was founded in 1975 had not been reflected in its make-up. Only Russia, of the BRICs, has been asked to join an expanded G8.
"Back then, China was economically irrelevant," he said. "Today it is the second-largest economy in the world. Brazil is bigger now than Italy. France, Germany and Italy share a single currency. Each of Brazil, India and Russia is bigger than Canada. Yet the G7 still meet and their leaders still behave as though their nations dominate the world.
"If the G7 were being formed today it would have to include China. A case could easily be made for Brazil, India or Russia over Canada, and since the introduction of the euro as a common currency in 1999, there seems little logic behind the individual participation of three eurozone members in the G7, especially the smallest of them, Italy."
Mr O'Neill said that the European Union should consider asking Russia to join and that the G7 should have a mechanism – possibly overseen by the International Monetary Fund – for ejecting countries which are less economically relevant.
"The days of a 'Western' club of democracies is well past its sell-by date," he said. "One obvious step towards streamlining the management of the G7 and G20 would be merging the memberships of France, Germany and Italy into a single EU common currency membership," he said.
"Canadian and British membership of the G7 might also soon come under scrutiny, but I see nothing wrong with that. Political pride might lead them to argue that exclusion from the G7 would diminish them internationally and economically. But I would disagree."

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高盛首席经济学家吉姆•奥尼尔预测中国经济将在2027超过美国，并敦促从根本上重新构想现在过度被西方控制的G7运作。