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本帖最后由 greycastle11 于 2011-12-1 11:55 编辑
Hillary Clinton's Myanmar trip marks significant shift in policy
希拉里的缅甸之行标志着政策巨变
The first high-level visit in decades to the nation also known as Burma is a huge gamble, in which the U.S. must balance strategic goals related to neighboring China with the need for human rights reforms.
对于缅甸（Myanmar，旧称Burma）来说，十年内第一次这样的高级别访问可以说是一场赌博。在这场赌博中，中国需要人权改革，而美国必须其邻邻国——中国，平衡它的战略目标。
 
Women buy fruit at a market in Yangon, Myanmar, on the eve of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's visit.
图为在美国务卿希拉里访问前一夜，妇女在缅甸首都仰光的集市买水果。
(Damir Sagolj / Reuters / November 29, 2011)
Damir Sagolj，路透社，2011.11.29
By Paul Richter and Mark Magnier, Los Angeles Times Paul Richter、Mark Magnier，洛杉矶时报
November 30, 2011
2011.11.30
Reporting from Washington and New Delhi—
来自华盛顿和新德里的报道
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's impending visit to Myanmar represents a dramatic shift in policy toward a state infamous for repression, an opening that demonstrates a new U.S. focus on Asia by building ties to a strategically important country bordering China.
美国国务卿希拉里•罗德姆•克林顿的此次缅甸访问意味着美对缅政策发生重大变化。此次改变是为了镇压这样一个声名狼藉的国家；同时，与中国有重要战略关系的邻国建交，也是一个机会来证明美国重新将目光聚焦在亚洲。
When she arrives Wednesday for a three-day visit, Clinton will be the most senior U.S. official to visit Burma — as the country long was known — since generals seized power in 1962 and largely closed it to the outside world. Her trip comes two weeks after President Obama announced a pivot in foreign policy: reasserting American political and economic clout in Asia to counter China's growing reach.
希拉里将于30日到达缅甸进行为期3天的访问，她将会是缅甸自1962年上将军夺取政权，与世界隔绝后最高层的访缅官员。她的此次行程是在总统奥巴马宣布一项外交政策之后两周，该政策重申美国对亚洲的政治经济影响力以抵御中国的崛起。
Clinton must balance those strategic goals against the risk of rewarding one of the world's most repressive regimes with the international acceptance it now craves. She must move carefully to lure Myanmar's reclusive leaders out of China's political orbit, while prodding the regime to continue what Obama has called "flickers of progress" toward reform.
希拉里必须权衡这些战略目标以冲抵这一举动所带来的风险缅甸曾拥有世界上最高压的政权，目前却渴求来自国际社会的接纳。 她要小心翼翼地引诱缅甸隐居领导人脱离中国的政治势力范围，同时刺激这缅甸政权来继续奥巴马对于此改革所说的““进步之光”改革。
If the regime fails to deliver on its promises, the historic overture could turn out to be an embarrassing blunder.
如果缅甸政权没有兑现它的承诺，那么这一历史性的提议将是一次令人难堪的错误。
"This trip is a huge gamble that only pays off if we see substantial progress," said Tom Malinowski of Human Rights Watch, a former official in President Clinton's White House. "The administration is very much aware of the risks."
“这次出访本来就一次巨大的博弈。只有取得实质性进步，才可谓值得，”“来自人权观察站的汤姆•马林诺夫斯基说，他曾是总统克林顿白宫办公室的一名正式员工。“行政机构已经意识到这些风险。”
Hillary Rodham Clinton is scheduled to meet in the new capital, Naypyidaw, on Wednesday with President Thein Sein, who is a former general, Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin and senior members of parliament. On Thursday and Friday, she will meet reform icon Aung San Suu Kyi, who blessed the trip during a phone call with Obama.
30日，希拉里•罗德姆•克林顿将在缅甸总统登盛的陪同下访问新首都内比都，登盛是一名退役将军，外交部长吴那貌伦以及议会高级成员也将随行。12月1日、2日，她将会晤反对派领袖昂山素季，昂山素季曾在与奥巴马的通话中预祝此次出访顺利。
Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace laureate, spent 15 years in detention after leading a peaceful uprising that was crushed by the army. She announced this month that her political party would participate in coming elections.
昂山素姬，一位诺贝尔和平奖获得者。她曾引领一次和平起义，但遭军队镇压，被拘禁了15年。之前她宣布在本月她的政党将参与即将到来的选举。
Clinton also is scheduled to meet with other private citizens and visit an AIDS clinic run by Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy.
希拉里也计划去私下拜访另一些普通市民、由昂山素姬的政党所运营的艾滋病诊所和全国民主联盟。
Clinton has promised that she will be blunt with officials about the need to release an estimated 1,600 political prisoners and improve human rights. She said she intends to test the regime's promises before offering any rewards, including any unwinding of economic sanctions that Washington and other governments and international bodies have imposed over the decades.
希拉里允诺说她将开诚布公地与官员讨论有关释放预计1600名政治罪犯来促进人权进步。她表明将在提供缅甸任何回报之前验证这一政权作出的承诺，包括放松来自华盛顿或其它政府以及某些国际机构加于缅甸长达数十年的经济制裁。
"We're not making any abrupt changes," Clinton told NBC News before she left. "We have to do more fact finding, and that's part of my trip."
“我们并非做一些唐突的改变”，希拉里在出发前对国家广播公司新闻中说道，“我们不得不发现更多事实，而这正是我出访的一部分”
But others, especially in the region, said the symbolism of her visit is hard to underestimate. Some believe Clinton's presence may spur national pride that could help build momentum toward greater reforms.
但尤其是在某些地区，有人认为很难低估她此行的象征意义。有些则相信希拉里的出现可能刺激名族自豪感以促进更大规模的改革。
"The meeting is a real opportunity for both sides, even if reform and lifting of sanctions takes time," said Htun Htun, information coordinator with India's Burma Center Delhi.
“这次会议对于双方都是一次良机，尽管改革和撤销制裁都需要时间”，屯屯说道，他是在印度缅甸中心的一位信息协调员。
Visiting Australia and Indonesia this month, Obama pledged to expand America's political and military engagement in Asia as the post-Sept. 11 wars wind down. He announced plans to deploy 2,500 Marines in northern Australia, and pressed for a free-trade architecture intended to unite the United States and regional allies.
这个月拜访了澳大利亚和印度尼西亚后，随着911事件的平息，奥巴马信誓旦旦地要扩张美国在亚洲的政治和军事范围。他宣布了在澳洲北部部署2500个海军陆战队员的计划，并且迫切要求构建自由贸易以便团结美国和别的地区盟友。
The goal, aides said, was to help check China's growing ambitions in the region. A reformed Myanmar similarly would bolster the Assn. of Southeast Asian Nations as a regional bulwark against China. In the last two years, Beijing has challenged ASEAN members over control of resource-rich areas in the South China Sea.
“目的”,助手说,“是在于帮助验证中国在该地区日益增长的野心。改革后的缅甸同样会支持东南亚国家协会，其已就针对中国形成一个区域性的堡垒。在过去的两年里,北京向东盟成员国就资源丰富的中国南海地区的控制权发起挑战。
Douglas Paal, a former senior U.S. official and specialist on Asia at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the 10-nation bloc's impact has been diminished in recent years by the appearance that Myanmar, an ASEAN member, "was almost a Chinese economic colony."
道格拉斯•鲍尔,一位前美国高级官员、亚洲问题专家，在卡内基国际和平基金会上说道,近年来十国集团的影响已经因缅甸，一个东盟成员国的而出现削弱，“它几乎是中国经济的殖民地。”
That relationship has shown signs of strain, however. In September, Myanmar abruptly suspended China's plans to build a $3.6-billion dam that faced strong popular opposition.
然而已经有迹象表明这种关系的紧张。9月,缅甸突然中止中国修建一条3.6百万的水坝计划遭到了强大而广泛的反对。
Setting aside the strategic competition between the U.S. and China, Myanmar suffers from an array of problems including tensions among ethnic groups, and among factions in the military. The economy is largely in the hands of a small number of people with close ties to the military.
先不论中美之间的战略竞争,缅甸遭受着一系列问题，包括民族间的紧张局势和军队派系间的内讧。而经济主要集中在少数与军方有密切联系的人手中。
A new U.S. relationship with Myanmar could create opportunities for American companies, which are eager to gain access to Myanmar's gas fields and abundant mineral resources.
美国与缅甸的新关系将为那些渴望获得缅甸油气田和丰富的矿产资源的美国公司创造机会。
If Washington moves toward lifting sanctions, "the question will be, what can the U.S. offer Myanmar in the meantime as a carrot?" said Bridget Welsh, a political science professor with the Singapore Management University.
如果华盛顿做出解除制裁的行动，“问题是，与此同时，美国能为缅甸提供什么吗?“布里奇特说，他是一位在威尔士新加坡管理大学的政治科学教授。
The Obama administration could propose such confidence-building measures as an exchange of senior diplomats, access to United Nations organizations, or cooperation on regional issues such as drugs and human trafficking, U.S. officials say.
”奥巴马政府可能会提出这样一些建立信心的措施，例如交换高级外交官,加入联合国组织,或就毒品、人口贩卖等区域问题进行合作“,美国官员说道。
Human rights advocates said they are disappointed that the regime did not release political prisoners before Clinton's trip.
在克林顿出访前，人权人士表示他们很失望,政府不愿意释放政治犯。
Activists say that if the regime doesn't institute reforms in the coming weeks and months, the trip must be judged a failure. Even if Clinton's visit comes off well, they worry that the regime could fear it is losing control and start backpedaling as it faces increased demands for change.
活跃人士表明，如果政府不在未来几周或几个月内进行改革,这次出访将被视为一次失败。即使希拉里的这次出访很成功，他们也担心当权者害怕失去控制权，开始打退堂鼓，因为它面临了越来越大的改革要求。
"We hope Clinton can convince the Burmese regime to release political prisoners and improve human rights violations," said Aung Khaing Min, an official with the Assistance Assn. for Political Prisoners, an advocacy group based in Thailand. "Any improvement depends on the actions of the regime."
“我们希望希拉里能说服缅甸政府释放政治犯并改善对人权的侵犯，吴凯民说道，他是一名为政治犯建设的援助协会（一个总部在泰国的倡导组织）官员。“任何进步取决于该政权的行为。”
Some analysts said events of the last year — including a new constitution, an elected parliament, a more reform-minded president and greater demands by political groups — may make it difficult for the regime to roll back the changes.
一些分析师表示,去年的这些事件,包括一个新宪法,一个经选举的议会,一个更倾向于改革派的总统和更多的政治团体需求——将会使政权在改革上的倒退变得更难。
"I think [the genie's] out of the bottle, although it won't be a linear process," said Welsh, the political scientist.
“我认为事情发生了决定性的变化，无法回头,虽然它将不会是一个线性的过程,”威尔士说道，他是一名政治科学家。
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发表于 2011-11-30 15:13
