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【中文标题】现实政治和缅甸春天
【原文标题】Realpolitik and the Myanmar Spring
【登载媒体】外交政策
【来源地址】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/11/30/democracy_myanmar_china_clinton
【译 者】WilliamRUC
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
ecretary of State Hillary Clinton is in Myanmar, on a trip thatis being hailed as a stunning breakthrough in bilateral relations and a signthat the Southeast Asian pariah state may finally be ready to rejoin theinternational community after two decades of isolation. It is a victory,analysts say, for the long-suffering forces of good and democracy over a brutaland self-serving military junta. But the truth is far more complicated.
国务卿希拉里在缅甸的破冰之旅被誉为惊人的突破，意味着这个东南亚国家在20年孤立之后重新回到国际社会。分析家们认为，经历困难之后，民主的力量终于战胜了长期执政的军政府。但是事实要复杂得多。
According to the conventional wisdom in the Western media, Myanmar's Nov.2010 elections may have been rigged and flawed, but nevertheless led to unprecedented policy changes and new initiatives. The new president, Thein Sein, has even been dubbed "Myanmar's Gorbachev" forhis seemingly daring moves toward openness and respect for (at least some)democratic values. He has held talks with pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi,political prisoners have been released, and censorship of the media has been relaxed. Consequently, Clinton has said that the time is right to visit the country to "promote further reform."
根据西方媒体的传统智慧，尽管2010年缅甸的大选存有缺陷，但是走向了政治改革的新愿景。因为新总统吴登盛看上去敢于开放的举措，以及至少对一些民主价值的尊重，他甚至被看做是“缅甸的戈尔巴乔夫”。他释放了被当做政治犯关押的昂山素季，并与这位民主主义者开展会谈。对媒体的监管也放松了。因此，希拉里声称访问这个国家的合适时机已经到来，并可以“促进改革的深化”。
But the secretary's visit has as much to do with Myanmar's relations with China and North Korea as with its tentative progress on democracy and human rights.
If Western observers are to be believed, recent developments in Myanmar reflect a power struggle between "reform-minded moderates" and "hardliners" within the government and the military that still controls it.
但是国务卿的访问与缅甸和中国与朝鲜的关系有密切联系，她对后两者的人民主与人权更为关心。
如果西方观察者没有弄错，最近缅甸的发展，折射了依然掌权的军方和政府内部“温和的改革派”与“强硬派”的权力斗争。
Western sanctions did not cause Myanmar's economic -- and strategic --push into "the hands of the Chinese," as many foreign observers have argued.But Western policies certainly made it easier for China to implement itsdesigns for Myanmar. This has, in return, caused the West to rethink its Myanmarpolicy -- at the same time as the country's growing dependence on China hascaused considerable consternation within Myanmar's military leadership.
西方的制裁没有造成缅甸的经济和战略推入“中国人的手中”，许多外国分析人士认为。但是西方的政策毫无疑问让中国在缅甸推行其模式变得更容易。如此反过来让西方重新思考对缅甸的政策——同时缅甸发展对中国的依赖造成了缅甸军方领导层相当程度的惊愕。
Whatever happens, don't expect relations to be without some unease. Decades of confrontation and mutual suspicion still exist. And a powerful strain in Washington to stand firm on human rights and democracy will complicate matters for Myanmar's rulers -- who are still uncomfortable and unwilling to relinquish total control. And last of all, there's China. Myanmar maybe pleased that the reliance on a dominant northern neighbor might be lessened shortly, but with so many decades of ties and real, on-the-ground projects underway, the relationship with Beijing isn't nearly dead yet.
无论发生什么，不要指望没有压力的关系。几十年的对抗和相互猜疑依然存在。华盛顿从人权和民主角度施加的压力会让缅甸管理者更加麻烦——后者仍然不愿意放弃控制。而且，还有中国在。也许这个北方邻国的压力会在短时间内减轻，但是因为有几十年的联系，和切切实实的地面项目，缅甸和北京的关系一点也没有死亡迹象。
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发表于 2011-12-1 18:17
