【NPR111204】南非气候大会上的博弈

weater76

【中文标题】南非气候大会上的博弈

【原文标题】What's At Stake In South Africa Climate Talks?

【登载媒体】美国国家公共电台

【来源地址】http://www.npr.org/2011/12/04/143095299/whats-at-stake-in-south-africa-climate-talks

【译    者】彩虹族

【翻译方式】人工

【声    明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【译    文】

South Africans light up a Baobab tree by riding bikes in Durban as part of a renewable energies display on the beach front during the United Nations Climate Change Conference.
联合国气候变化会议期间，南非人民在德班一个海滩前通过踩自行车点亮了一颗猴面包树，作为一种可再生能源的展示

Representatives from 191 countries are meeting in Durban, South Africa, this week for United Nations climate change talks. One of the biggest questions is what will become of the Kyoto Protocol — a climate treaty signed in 1997. Key provisions of that expire next year and its future hangs in the balance. Another major question is whether nations can agree to a timeline that would lead to a new treaty that would include the world's biggest greenhouse-gas emitters, including the United States and China. The U.S. did not ratify the Kyoto treaty so it isn't bound by it; China is part of the treaty but is treated like a developing nation with no responsibility to reduce its emissions.

NPR's Richard Harris is covering the climate talks from Durban. We asked him to answer some questions about the meeting.

Canada, Russia and Japan have all said they're essentially backing out of a part of Kyoto; they're not going to sign up for a second round of emission reduction pledges under the treat. The EU is on the fence. Why are countries moving away from Kyoto?

The Kyoto treaty applies only to nations that represent less than 20 percent of global carbon emissions. Shortly after the pact was signed in 1997, the U.S. Senate made it clear it would not ratify a treaty that doesn't require action from the developing world. And since the treaty was negotiated, the developing world has led the way in emissions growth. China is now the world's largest emitter, surpassing the United States about five years ago. India's emissions are also on the rise. Europe has championed the Kyoto treaty, but is unhappy that it's increasingly going it alone. Developing nations, however, embrace the treaty, largely for its symbolic importance. They are not required to act under its provisions. The treaty puts the onus for action on the rich nations of the world.
　　本周来自191个国家的代表们聚集在南非德班，参与联合国气候变暖的议题。最棘手的问题之一是1997年各国签订的气候条约——京都协议书的结果如何。其中关键条款在明年届满后，未来难料。另一个重大问题是各国是否能够通过一个新条约的时间表，包括世界上最大的温室气体排放国：美国和中国。美国从未承认过京都条约，所以并不受其限制。中国作为条约的签订国之一，因其发展中国家的情况，而没有责任减少其排放量。
　　全国公共电台理查德哈里斯正在德班气候会议上进行现场报道。我们问他一些有关会议的问题。
　　加拿大，德国和日本三国表示基本退出京都条约；他们不打算签署该条约下第二轮减排承诺。欧盟持观望态度。为什么这些国家都打算退出京都条约？
　　京都条约只适用于世界上二氧化碳排放量总计不到百分之二十的国家。
　　1997年条约签订没多久，美国议会即宣布不会承认这份对发展中国家无约束的条约。条约谈判一来，发展中国家的气体排放量反而与日俱增。中国作为世界上最大的排放量国家，在过去的五年中已超过美国。印度的排放量也日益增多。欧洲各国一直倡导京都条约，但也开始不满其日益孤立。然而，发展中国家承认条约，主要是因为象征的重要性。他们根本不受其限制。条约将其履行的义务置于发达国家。

Is the U.S. opposed to any legally binding treaty?
No. The United States has ratified the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was negotiated in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 by then-President George H.W. Bush. It is the foundation for the Kyoto treaty and it also establishes the principle that the world needs to work to avoid having human activities interfere with the global climate in a dangerous way. The US position is that it would favor other legally binding agreements — but only if China and other major players also accept some legally binding action. Ratifying a treaty requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate and that creates an additional challenge.
What other options are on the table?
At climate talks in Copenhagen two years ago, many nations agreed to put forth their own national goals for reducing emissions — or at least to slow the growth of these emissions. This framework is called pledge-and-review. Countries pledge action, but the pledge isn't legally binding. The only consequence of failing to meet those pledges is international disapproval. The reality, however, is that even a legally binding framework such as the Kyoto Protocol doesn't punish infractions. Nations that miss their mark are simply expected to try harder next time (if there is a next time).
What are the upsides of the pledge-and-review approach?
The upside is that nations are asked to reflect on what they are able to accomplish and put that in writing. In many cases, these goals are contingent on other events happening within a national economy. For example, China's pledge is to reduce emissions relative to its economic growth. That means China isn't penalized if it grows faster than expected. The United States' pledge was contingent on climate legislation making it through Congress. That legislation did not become law. The Obama administration is still hoping it can usher in legislation to reach our national pledge — reducing emissions by 17 percent relative to our 2005 levels, by the year 2020.
　　美国是否反对各种有约束性的条约？
　　没有。美国在气候变暖问题上已履行了联合国气候变暖框架公约，于1992年在里约热内卢商定，由时任总统乔治·布什签订。框架公约是京都条约的基础，它建立的规则要求世界各国共同努力，避免人类活动以一种危险的方式破坏全球气候。美国的立场是它会承认各类合法的约束条款，但前提是中国和其他主要成员国也承认他们。批准一项条约需要国会三分之二的赞成票，还将导致额外的困难。
　　还有哪些提议？
　　两年前在哥本哈根的气候变暖讨论上，许多国家同意推出他们的减排目标——或者至少减少排量的增长。这份框架被称为“承诺和审查”。各国承诺行动，但承诺不具有法律规范性。承诺未得到实行的的唯一后果是受国际非议。然后事实是，即使如京都条约这类具有法律效应的框架也不会惩罚失信。未达标的国家只是简单的被期望下次努力实践承诺（如果还有下次的话）。
　　“承诺和审查”方法有什么优点？
　　优点是要求各国反思他们能完成多少，并提交书面材料。多数情况是，这些目标视其国家经济中发生的事件而定。例如，中国承诺相对于其经济增长减少排放。也就是说如果排放量比预期快，中国也不会受惩罚。美国承诺根据其气候法规使国会同意条约。该法规并未成为法律。奥巴马政府仍旧希望可以迎来法律，以达到我们国家的承诺——即到2020年，排放量减少17个百分点，相对2005年的水平。

What are the downsides to the pledge-and-review approach?
The pledges currently on the table fall far short of what would be required to stabilize the planet's atmosphere. China's current pledge, for example, only slows the rate at which that nation's emissions are growing; it doesn't reduce the amount of carbon dioxide it puts into the air. Activists argue that negotiated emissions targets could encourage countries to take on more ambitious goals.
If the United Nations climate talks fail to produce a global pact, what happens next?
It's unclear what happens next. Some nations want to use the Durban talks to start work on a new binding treaty, but many major players aren't interested in that. There are alternative approaches in the absence of a global pact in the style of the Kyoto Protocol. For example, it might be possible to reach an agreement to set a global limit for emissions from energy-intensive industries such as steelmaking. Or, if the world agreed to put a price on carbon (not likely at the moment), that would encourage a shift away from carbon dioxide emissions without requiring a treaty that spells out national emissions limits. A gloomier possibility is the world will not act until and unless there's a catastrophic event that's clearly triggered by climate change.
As greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, are we running out of time to decide on a plan of action? Is there a point past which any concerted global effort to address climate change might be too late?
There is no clear scientific definition of a point-of-no-return for the climate. The atmosphere, oceans and ice sheets have various potential "tipping points" — events that are difficult or impossible to reverse, such as rapid melting of ice sheets. But it's unclear where those tipping points are. In the absence of a clear point-of-no-return, nations have agreed that the world should strive to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) over preindustrial levels. We're already well on our way to that limit, and given the rapid growth in fossil fuels globally, very substantial efforts would be required in just the next few years to prevent that degree of warming.
　　“承诺与审查”有什么不利的一面？
　　当前正在讨论中的各类承诺都远远少于稳定大气层的要求。例如，中国最新承诺只减少其国家正在增长的排放量，而不会减少它排放到大气层的二氧化碳的总量。活动者同意谈判的排放指标可以鼓励各国采取更多野心勃勃的目标。
　　如果联合国气候讨论无法达成全球公约，接下来会如何？
　　目前还不清楚后面的事情。一些国家希望通过德班谈话开始使用新的具有约束力的条约，但是许多主要成员国并不对之感兴趣。在京都条约上，有多种途径使条约不起作用。例如，可以达成协定对能源密集型产业比如炼钢，设置全球限制排放。或者，各国同意给二氧化碳标价，可能会使得二氧化碳排放的转变，没有要求一项条约具体要求各国排放限制额。一个消极的可能是世界各国根本不会履行条约，直到全球变暖的灾难性事件出现。
　　随着温室气体排放的持续增多，我们是否还有时间来决定一项行动的计划？是否有迹象表明，协调一致的全球共同努力已经太迟了？
　　现在还没有科学性的定义气候的不归路。大气层、海洋还有冰川有许多可能的临界点——例如冰川急速溶解是很难或者不可能扭转的。但是目前还不清楚这些临界点在哪里。在缺乏确定性的不归路上，各国一致同意应努力限制全球变暖摄氏度不超过2度，在前工业化的水平上。我们已经在极限的路上了，鉴于全球化石燃料的快速增长，要求未来五年大幅努力来阻止变暖的温度。

lyycc

呵呵，原来又是新一轮的扯皮而已