【华尔街日报111219】论金正恩接班不确定性

路尽飘香处

Wall Street Journal
DECEMBER 19, 2011, 6:48 A.M. ET
Attention Shifts to Pyongyang's Young Leader By JAEYEON WOO
SEOUL—After the sudden death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il, attention swings to his third son, Kim Jong Eun, who has been named as the new leader of the isolated country.
A smooth transition of power is far from certain.
Kim Jong Eun, born either in 1983 or 1984 according to the South Korean government, was effectively appointed to succeed to his father in September last year, when the ruling Worker's Party of Korea handed him the post of four-star general in the Korean People's Army and a position on the military commission of the party. Before the announcement, he had never been mentioned by North Korea's state media.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Kim Jong Eun was effectively appointed to succeed to his father in September last year, when the ruling Worker's Party of Korea handed him the post of four-star general in the Korean People's Army and a position on the military commission of the party.

Little is known about Kim Jong Eun. North Korea watchers say he studied for a few years as a teenager in Switzerland and then at a military academy in Pyongyang, and that his ascent to power has been accelerated after his father suffered a strokelike illness in August 2008.
Some analysts say Kim Jong Eun's youth, inexperience and lack of public exposure raise significant questions about whether he can, or even will, run the country. That represents a significant risk of political instability in the country in the near-term.
The Kim DynastyRead more about the Kim family in an interactive graphic.
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Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Mr. Kim, accompanied by his son Kim Jong Eun, second from right, waved to the children playing at a the newly built wading pool in Jagang province in this photo released on Sept. 2.

The Life of a DictatorView Interactive

The son of North Korea's founder, Kim Jong Il ruled the reclusive country for nearly two decades. See highlights from his life and career in this timeline.

During the last transition of power in North Korea, Kim Jong Il was far better known to North Koreans and outsiders than Kim Jong Eun is today. The younger Mr. Kim has been in the public eye for only a year; when Kim Il Sung died in 1994, Kim Jong Il had been known to North Koreans for 20 years. And from the early 1980s, he was portrayed as active in government policy-making.
Some analysts expect Kim Jong Il's sister, Kim Kyong Hui, and her husband, a close aide to Kim Jong Il named Jang Song Taek, might act as regents for Kim Jong Eun to help him gain enough power within the Worker's Party as well as the military to run the regime. Some questions whether the couple will pose as rivals to the younger man, however.
"It's been only about a year and three months since Kim Jong Eun was officially tapped, so it would be very difficult for him to effectively seize power within the old guards in the party as well as the military," said Yoo Dong-ryul, a researcher at the Police Science Institute in Yongin, Gyeonggi-do. "I think whether Kim Jong Eun succeeds will ultimately depend on the role by Jang Song Taek."
Earlier: Kim Jong Eun

• North Korea Heir Appears, at Last 10/01/2010
• Opinion: A Modern Major-General 9/28/2010
• Photos: North Korea Hails Next Leader 10/11/2010
  

"All we've really seen is expectations of what Kim Jong Il wanted to happen after he died," said Gordon Flake, executive director of the Mansfield Foundation in Washington, an independent group promoting understanding of Asia in the U.S. "What will be interesting to see now is whether the plan he was apparently putting together goes forward or whether we get something very different."
Since Kim Jong Eun's public appointment, he has frequently been spotted with his father on the elder Mr. Kim's regular inspections of military and other facilities, with the first such activity happening in early October last year when he was observing a military exercise alongside his father.
His first public photo was released in late September last year, showing a striking resemblance to his grandfather, the revered founder of North Korea, Kim Il Sung. Domestic media suspected at that time that he might have intentionally tried to look like the founder in order to boost his legitimacy with the North Korean people.
Bruce Klinger, Korea analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, said the younger Mr. Kim's need for support from senior military and political leaders means that he's unlikely to be open to political and economic reforms. "If anything, he may have to take a hard-line policy as a way of proving himself to challengers or to these senior leaders," Mr. Klinger said.
In announcing the death of the elder Mr. Kim Monday morning, a weeping anchorwoman in a black hanbok, or traditional Korean dress, referred to Kim Jong Eun as "great successor to the revolutionary cause of Juche and outstanding leader of our party, army and people." Juche is North Korea's state ideology, which emphasizes independence and self-determination.
"Under the leadership of Kim Jong Eun we should turn our sorrow into strength and courage and overcome the present difficulties and work harder for fresh great victory of the Juche revolution," North Korea's state news agency said in a statement.
"There is no question that Kim Jong Eun will lead the country eventually, but the question now is when it will happen," said Kim Kwang-jin, senior fellow at Institute for National Security Strategy, a government research institute in Seoul.
Mr. Kim said it is unlikely for North Korea to give Kim Jong Eun the formal titles of his father any time soon, citing that the regime observed a three-year mourning period when Kim Il Sung died in 1994, and would likely do the same now.