【经济学家 11/12/10】澳门的赌博业 — 中国的一扇窗户

满仓

【中文标题】澳门的赌博业 — 中国的一扇窗户
【原文标题】Macau’s gambling industry A window on China
【登载媒体】经济学家
【原文链接】http://www.economist.com/node/21541417


一个近海赌博圣地揭示了中国的哪些现象？



澳门的赌场在中国近海喧嚣着，大笔财富在这里被无度地挥霍。到处都是大理石柱子、黄金装饰品和金钱。但是金光闪闪的浮华背后却隐藏着黑暗的交易。

澳门的成功并非纯粹依赖中国人好赌的天性，还有一部分拜大笔急于逃离大陆的财富所赐。通过观察澳门幕后的现实，可以揭露中国很多腐败的现象，以及中国的生意人对本土政治气候变化感到多么不安。

自从2004年美国赌博业经营者进入这里，澳门经济增长的速度让发牌人分筹码的手法都相形见绌。今年前11个月赌博业的收入比去年同期上升44％，澳门现在是拉斯维加斯赌场规模的4倍。这个前葡萄牙殖民地、中国自1999年以来的“经济特区”，现在是世界的赌博业中心。



高调成功人士用借来的钱在私人房间里赌博，这些VIP在去年贡献了澳门2350亿美元赌博业收入的72％（见上图）。由于赌博在中国大陆属于非法，澳门自然而然就成为了他们的目的地。这个岛上特有的“招待”制度让有钱的中国人来到这里，所谓“招待”是指一些中间人，他们出借大笔风险资金，安排赌客的食宿，从赌场盈利中收入大约40％的报酬。（在拉斯维加斯，赌场自己调查赌客的背景后，直接借钱给他们。）

但是，今年前10个月里来到澳门的1320万大陆人不都是纸牌游戏的狂热爱好者，很多人是在躲避中国严格的人民币出境金额限制政策。比如说，一个贪污国家资金的政府官员或许会通过一个“招待”安排来澳门赌博。到这里的时候，他的筹码已经放在桌子上等着他。他可以直接兑换成港币，存在香港的银行里，今后还可以把钱转移得更远。

澳门大学的商业助理教授Davis Fong说：“有太多洗钱的方法了，有些你想都想不到。”有的人不通过招待，而是利用典当行或其它商店。他们用人民币买进一样东西，然后马上卖出，拿到的是葡币或港币。当然卖出的价格低一些，这就算是他们慷慨的小费了。没有人知道有多少黑钱在澳门被洗白，一位澳门居民坦言：“你到死也不会知道肮脏的钱到底有多少。”

中国大陆缺少对私人财产的保护制度。很多人通过不光彩的手段致富，他们知道手里的财富在一夜间就有可能消失。比如有的人担心，明年秋天中国共产党新一代领导班子沐浴更衣的时候，他们原来的赞助人可能再也不会光顾。难怪他们要为兜里的钱和家人谋求一个避风港了。

据胡润报告提供的信息，中国富人中大约14％已经离开这个国家，或者正在准备获取外国护照。另外还有46％的人在考虑采取类似的行动。美林银行在近期发布的报告中警告，中国今年向外流出的“热钱”将造成不稳定的效果。

现金通过澳门流失的现象引起了北京政府的关注，或许这就是为什么2008年澳门暂时停止对中国大陆人发放签证的原因。据维基解密这个捣蛋分子提供的信息，其它一些国家在静观其变。2009年12月，美国驻香港领事馆向国务卿发送的一份文件中说：“（澳门）非凡成就的原因是为洗钱提供了便利，甚至给予鼓励。”2008年，时任美国驻香港总领事的Joseph Donovan写道：“这些大陆人用贪污得来的钱赌博，这些钱中的大部分如果没有流入澳门，就会落入中国大陆的犯罪组织手中。”

很多人还在担心“招待”的良性运作问题，主要是基于中国“影子贷款”（译者注：指类似民间借贷这种没有正式担保制度的贷款行为）体系运作稳定性的考虑。如果富有的中国人发现他们的生意破产，或者房地产投资无法收回，以及大陆经济放缓所引发的各类问题出现，那么澳门将有200多个招待借给赌客的钱将无法收回，或者至少他们不会再有那么多钱可以出借。但是，收不回钱来的招待会想办法转移风险，最终哪些提供信用的赌场要承受巨大的损失。很多赌场高管似乎并不清楚他们借给招待多少钱，因此违约责任的程度也无法估算。

赌场老板和赌客们一样，只会设想赢钱的局面。根据相关的分析报告，目前还没有一个招待出现贷款无法回收的情况。一位赌场高管最近说，如果澳门官员被牵扯进腐败丑闻，或者赌场内发生凶杀案，他自己要比招待承担更多的风险。任何一件醒目的大案都会让中国更深入地插手澳门事务，尤其是赌博行业。

目前的状况是赌场在尽量避免这种情况的发生，它们试图吸引更多的以赌博为乐趣的客人。这些人不需要借款，而且他们身上的利润更加丰厚，因为赌场不需要付报酬给招待。广州和澳门之间正在修建一条高速铁路，赌客将更方便来到这里。有的赌场还新建了一些场地，二十一点的赌桌比以前少了，空出来的地方是商店、剧院和餐厅。

这或许可以平息北京的一些怒气，它宁愿看到人们购买珠宝，也不想看见他们转换货币。但是，只要钱在中国有不安全之感，它必然要寻找出路，而澳门是再方便不过的途径了。



原文：

NOT far from China’s coast, Macau’s casinos buzz with the energy and abandon of the wildly wealthy. Marble columns, gold decor and money are everywhere. But behind the glittering facades there are signs of something darker.

Macau’s success is not built purely on the Chinese love of gambling. It is also fuelled by a stampede of nervous money fleeing the mainland. A look behind the scenes at Macau reveals a lot about Chinese corruption, and also about how scared many Chinese businessfolk are about the political climate back home.

Since 2004 when American casino operators first opened there, Macau has grown faster than a dealer sorts chips. Gaming revenues in the first 11 months of the year were 44% higher than in 2010; Macau is now four times bigger than Las Vegas. The former Portuguese colony, a “special administrative region” of China since 1999, is now the world’s gambling capital.
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High-flyers who gamble with borrowed money in private rooms, known as VIPs, contributed around 72% of Macau’s $23.5 billion in revenues last year (see chart). Because gambling is illegal in mainland China, Macau is their destination of choice. The island’s idiosyncratic “junket” system helps to bring rich Chinese to Macau. Junkets are middlemen who lend high-rollers money, arrange accommodation and are paid around 40% of the casinos’ take in return. (In Las Vegas casinos carry out background checks on gamblers and lend to them directly.)

But it is not just a passion for cards that brought more than 13.2m mainlanders to Macau in the first ten months of this year. Many come to elude China’s strict limits on the amount of yuan people can take out of the country. A government official who has embezzled state funds, for example, may arrange to gamble in Macau through a junket. When he arrives, his chips are waiting for him. When he cashes out, his winnings are paid in Hong Kong dollars, which he can stash in a bank in Hong Kong or take farther afield.

“There are many ways to launder money, more than we can think of,” says Davis Fong, an associate business professor at the University of Macau. Some bypass junkets and instead use pawnshops and other stores, where they buy an item with yuan and promptly sell it back for Macanese pataca or Hong Kong dollars—less, of course, a generous cut for the shopkeeper. No one can quantify how much money is laundered in Macau, but it’s “such an obscene amount of money you would die”, one resident avows.

Mainland China offers scant legal protection for private property. The rich, many of whom cut corners to get that way, know they could lose it all suddenly. Many also fear losing their political patrons next autumn, when China’s Communist Party will anoint a new generation of leaders. Small wonder they are seeking havens for their money and their families.

According to the Hurun Report, a wealth researcher, some 14% of rich Chinese say they have already left the country or are filling out paperwork to obtain a foreign passport. Another 46% are considering one of these steps. A recent report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned about the destabilising effects of “hot money” speeding out of China this year.

The flow of money through Macau has caught the eye of the government in Beijing and may explain a temporary crackdown in 2008 on the number of Macau visas given to mainland Chinese. According to cables made public by WikiLeaks, an online troublemaker, others are also watching. A memo sent in December 2009 from the American consulate in Hong Kong to the secretary of state said that “[Macau’s] phenomenal success is based on a formula that facilitates if not encourages money laundering.” In a cable in 2008 Joseph Donovan, then the American consul-general in Hong Kong, wrote that “some of these mainlanders are betting with embezzled state money or proceeds from official corruption, and substantial portions of these funds are flowing on to organised crime groups in mainland China, if not Macau itself.”

Many have also started to worry about the junkets’ health, partly out of concern about the stability of China’s “shadow lending” system. If rich Chinese saw their businesses collapse or property investments plunge, as some fret could happen if the mainland’s economy slows, the 200 or so junkets that operate in Macau could have trouble getting their money back from gamblers. At best there would be less money to lend. But junkets that could not collect debts might implode, leaving the casinos that had extended credit to them with big losses. Many casino executives do not seem to know how much money they have lent to junkets, which makes it hard to assess the possible extent of defaults.

Casino operators, like their customers, remain sanguine about future winnings. According to analysts, no big junket has reported any issues with bad loans so far. A casino executive said recently that he worried less about a junket going under than he did about the implication of a Macanese official in a corruption scandal or a murder at a casino. Any big crime would probably encourage China to intervene more heavily in Macau’s affairs and specifically in the gaming industry.

You can bet that the casinos want to avoid that. They are trying to attract more “mass-market” customers, who actually want to gamble for fun. Such people do not need loans to play and offer better margins, because casinos do not need to pay junkets a cut. A high-speed railway being built from Guangzhou to Macau will make it easier to lure them. Some casinos are also building venues with less floor space for blackjack and more for shops, theatres and restaurants.

This may help placate the government in Beijing, which would rather see its citizens shop for jewellery than for a different currency. But as long as money feels nervous in China, it will seek a way out, and Macau is awfully convenient.

墨子的咸菜

此文目的为何意？管好拉斯维加斯的事情吧！

Jigong

红眼症;P

Solomon1

是为了说中国贪污盛行还是私人财产得不到保障？很矛盾啊，难道需要保障贪官们拥有他们贪来的钱？