美国网友：如果今天大陆“侵略”台湾，会发生什么？

daydaydown

原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com

美国网友：如果今天大陆“侵略”台湾，会发生什么译注：为了不引起不必要的麻烦以及争论，本翻译贴名称上如中国（大陆）“侵略”等字样会做些修改，特此说明！
这个帖子是来自美国一本军事杂志《Armchair General》的论坛~
1#
Wilhelm_Scream  
Would the US aide Taiwan or remain neutral? Would the Taiwanese be able to fend off the Chinese on their own or would the Chinese plow right through them?
I apologize in advance if this is in the wrong forum.
美国会支援台湾或者保持中立？台湾人能够靠自己抵抗中国人或者中国人把他们一击即溃？
如果发错论坛，先说声抱歉。

2#
GCoyote  
Location: Laurel, MD, USA
It's the right forum but someone asks this question about every six months on average. Do a search on "Taiwan" for previous exchanges. Anyone have an update on the military situation they'd like to share?
发对论坛了但是每隔六个月就有人问这个问题。在以前的交流话题里查找一下“台湾”。有人会上传他们愿意分享的军事情况。
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3#
lakechampainer  
Location: Peabody, ma
I have thought about this question myself, but in two slightly different ways, from a political standpoint:
1. Are China and the US likely to make some sort of a "trade" where they both work towards Taiwan gradually, peacefully integrating with China, and they both work towards the dissolution of North Korea and the establishment of a neutral Korea, or at least a Korea strictly limited in its deployment of forces?
2. What internal events in China could push China to become reckless, and invade Taiwan, and/or what events could so weaken the US that China could feel it safe to invade Taiwan?
PS - Welcome to the forums. This is probably my favorite forum, but not too many people post on it.

我想过这个问题，但是从政治立场来说有两个稍微不同的思路：
1.是否中国和美国可能有某种“交易”，努力完成台湾逐渐的和平的与中国结合的目标，并且达成朝鲜的分裂和一个中立韩国的确立这一目的，或者至少韩国的军事调度被严格限制？
2. 某个中国内部事件可能促使中国变得不计后果去“入侵”台湾，或者发生什么使美国衰弱的事情，让中国觉得“侵略”台湾很安全？
PS：欢迎来到这个论坛。这可能是我最喜欢的论坛，但没有太多人在这里发帖子。

daydaydown

4#
lakechampainer  
Location: Peabody, ma
In a military sense, I could see something happening like this:
China sends in crack airborne terror troops, who would have been trained and would function much as the Soviets did in their invasion of Afghanistan. They would be ruthless in eliminating the political and military leadership. I assume they have people "in country" also, but obviously anyone who blended in in 1949 would be dead (or 80+). After they did this, and assuming it was successful, they would let the general population know that, if they behave, they will do everything then can to not hurt civilians, that they have no gripe with the good people of Taiwan, but with their evil government, etc.
The Taiwan military of course fights back, but like the Soviets, the Chinese for years have been preparing for this day. The take out tracking radars with special forces troops and with cruise missiles/short range missiles they have been developing. The Taiwanese Navy in port is destroyed, as is their port facilities.
So at this point, the question becomes, do the Taiwanese people see the mainland Chinese victory or inevitable, or do they take to the hills, etc.?
And what does the US do? I'm assuming that the US is bogged down still in Southwest Asia, that there is a growing antiwar movement, etc.
I also assume the US has developed resources over the years to deal with such a potential strategy, and these may include, besides the obvious use of the US Navy as a screen to protect from Seaborne invasion, and the use of USAF air superiority planes. Also I would assume special units of the Taiwanese army have been trained as "counter-commandos", with US help, and that US military intelligence of all services has worked very closely with Taiwan since 1949 up through the present day.
What I do not see is regular US Army and US Marine Corps units fighting on the ground in Taiwan, I don't believe the American people (or the US leadership) has the stomach for that.

从军事上，我可以预见会发生如下事情：
中国会派遣精锐空降反恐部队，他们受过专门的训练，他们更像苏联入侵阿富汗所运作的那样。他们将会无情的除掉政治和军事领导人。我假设他们也有人“在当地”，但显然1949年混入的这些人已经去世(或80岁以上)。他们这么干之后，假设一切顺利，他们会让一般民众知道，如果他们行动，他们将尽一切可能不伤害老百姓，以致他们不会抱怨台湾那些好人，而是抱怨他们邪恶的政府，等等。
台湾军方当然会反击，但像苏联一样，中国多年来已经为这天进行了准备。采用特种部队的雷达追踪和他们不断发展的巡航导弹/短程导弹。台湾海军在港内就被摧毁，就像他们的港口设施一样。
所以从这一点来说，这个问题变成台湾人怎么理解中国大陆的胜利，是认为不可避免，还是他们会逃跑后躲藏起来等等？
美国会怎么做呢?我猜美国在亚洲西南部仍然陷入泥沼，且有一个反对战争的美国政府等等。
我也认为美国多年来发展物力来处理这样一个潜在的战略，而这可能包括，除了明显的使用美国海军作为屏障来避免中国从海上军事入侵，还使用了美国空军有空中优势的飞机。我也认为，在我们的帮助下，台湾军方的特种部队一直被培训成“反突击部队”，从1949年到今天，美国所有的军事情报服务一直与台湾密切合作。
我看不出在台湾的陆地上美国陆军和美国海军陆战队有什么规律，我不相信美国人（或美国领导人）有吞下台湾的胃口。
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5#  
Rojik  
Location: Lost again
Quote:
Originally Posted by lakechampainer  
And what does the US do? I'm assuming that the US is bogged down still in Southwest Asia, that there is a growing antiwar movement, etc.
That is the number one question. How many ships, aircraft and - most importantly - men is the US willing to trade for a non-communist Taiwan weighed against how much political prestige the US would lose if they let it happen?

引用4#
这就是首要的问题。 如果中国让一切发生了，多少船，多少飞机和多少重要人物是美国愿意付出的去换取一个非共产主义的台湾，权衡下美国将失去多少政治威望？

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6#   
tnbn75  
Location: richmond
likelihood of an invasion would be slim none. but an invasion would not start with the military. 4 taiwanese companies produce ALL the computer components in the world. everybody i mean everybody buys from them. if you don't believe me ask any computer expert. now what nobody realizes is all the taiwanese companies have moved thier factories to china for the cheap labor.
so china 's invasion plan wouldn't require an invasion simply close its borders and nationalize all the taiwanese factories. boom overnight the taiwanese economy is destroyed. so the question i don't have the answer for is what happens to the world economy and especially the computer industry?
essentially what i'm saying is that china has long ago reclaimed taiwan economically. taiwan is the only country that doesn't know it yet.

侵略的可能性相当渺茫。但是侵略并不是从军方开始。四家台湾公司生产世界上所有电脑部件。我的意思是每个人，每个人都从他们手里买东西。如果你们不相信我，可以问任何一个计算机专家。现在知道所有的台湾企业因廉价劳动力把他们的工厂搬到了中国。
所以中国的"侵略"计划不需要"入侵"台湾，仅仅靠边界封锁和把台湾企业收归国有就行了。彻夜轰炸之后台湾经济被摧毁。所以关于世界经济特别是计算机产业会发生什么这个问题我没有答案？
实际上我是说中国早已在改造台湾经济。台湾是唯一我们还不了解的"国家"。

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7#
lirelou  
Location: Lutz
Quote:
That is the number one question. How many ships, aircraft and - most importantly - men is the US willing to trade for a non-communist Taiwan weighed against how much political prestige the US would lose if they let it happen?  
Rojic, I don't think the trade involves communism or non-communism at all. Theoretically, and anti-US leftist Taiwanese government could get elected. I think the real question is: As long as Taiwan desires to remain independent of the mainland, is it in the U.S. interest to deny Chinese submarines the immediate access to deep water that taking Taiwan would allow them?

引用5#
Rojic，我一点也不认为贸易包含共产主义和非共产主义。理论上，反美左派的台湾政府可能被选上。我认为真正的问题是：只要台湾渴望保持不受大陆支配，是否美国有兴趣拒绝中国的潜水艇直接进入深水区，台湾会允许吗？
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8#
Wilhelm_Scream  
Location: Ft. Worth
Quote:
Originally Posted by lakechampainer  
What I do not see is regular US Army and US Marine Corps units fighting on the ground in Taiwan, I don't believe the American people (or the US leadership) has the stomach for that.
What about special forces teams aiding the resistance (that we'd never know about).

引用4#
特种部队支援那些（我们从不知道的）反抗怎么样
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9#
GMan88  
Location: manila
special forces are good. but not that good. taiwanese forces, conventional and unconventional, are very well trained already. i don't think they need any more "training". any aid would come in the form of more hardware (ie anti-tank, anti-air weapons etc).
by the way, i dont think an invasion is likely. but given that it does, i don't understand what lakechampainer writes china as using "crack airborne terror troops", and them being "ruthless in eliminating... leadership". i mean, if you're going to wage war, you'll have to be ruthless. otherwise just stay home. also, i've heard of crack troops, airborne troops, and crack airborne troops, but i've never heard of crack airborne terror troops. or do you mean crack airborne troops will be used to strike terror? or what?

特种部队很优秀，但也没那么优秀。台湾军队，常规的和非常规的，已经训练得非常好。我不认为他们需要任何“培训”。所有的支援将以给予更多硬件设备的形式进入（也就是反坦克、防空武器等等）。
顺便提一下，我不认为侵略是可能的。但是假定它发生了，我不理解lakechampainer（4#）写的中国使用“精锐空降反恐部队”，和他们会“无情的除掉政治和军事领导人”。我的意思是，如果你将要发动战争，你将不得不残忍无情。否则待家里就好啦。 还有，我听说过精锐部队，空降部队，精锐空降部队，我从没听说过精锐空降反恐部队。 或者你的意思是精锐空降部队用于反恐？或是其他什么？

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10#
lakechampainer  
Location: Peabody, ma
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilhelm_Scream  
What about special forces teams aiding the resistance (that we'd never know about).
I agree with you, I assume that would happen.

引用8#  
我同意你，我承认那会发生。

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11#   
lakechampainer  
Location: Peabody, ma
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMan88  
special forces are good. but not that good. taiwanese forces, conventional and unconventional, are very well trained already. i don't think they need any more "training". any aid would come in the form of more hardware (ie anti-tank, anti-air weapons etc).
by the way, i dont think an invasion is likely. but given that it does, i don't understand what lakechampainer writes china as using "crack airborne terror troops", and them being "ruthless in eliminating... leadership". i mean, if you're going to wage war, you'll have to be ruthless. otherwise just stay home. also, i've heard of crack troops, airborne troops, and crack airborne troops, but i've never heard of crack airborne terror troops. or do you mean crack airborne troops will be used to strike terror? or what?
I'm not going to argue over a word. This isn't an English writing class in which we exchange work and discuss the use of adjectives, etc.

引用9#
我不想为一个词争论。这不是在一个让我们交流文学和讨论形容词用法等等的英语书写分类里。
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12#
Rojik  
Location: Lost again
Quote:
Originally Posted by lirelou  
Rojic, I don't think the trade involves communism or non-communism at all. Theoretically, and anti-US leftist Taiwanese government could get elected. I think the real question is: As long as Taiwan desires to remain independent of the mainland, is it in the U.S. interest to deny Chinese submarines the immediate access to deep water that taking Taiwan would allow them?
That is a pretty valid point about the submarines that I hadn't considered. I guess my thinking on the "Taiwan question" is stuck back in the cold war era. I always thought that it was a political line in the sand rather than a strategic military one.

引用7#
那是一个相当有根据的观点，关于潜水艇这点我没有深思熟虑过。我承认我所考虑的“台湾问题”被冷战年代阻挡了。我总是想那是一条沙盘中的政治界限而不是军事战略上的。
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13#
GMan88  
Location: manila
I agree. This isn't an english class where we have to define nor argue over definitions. What this is, though, is a forum where we post our ideas and opinion on certain issues. And when you use the word "terror", specially in conjunction with other words, you really should be open to the idea of other people trying to get clarification on what you mean. Otherwise, don't say this isnt an english class; just say you don't want to clarify and leave it at that.

我同意。这不是一个我们不得不去定义也不是为术语争论的英语分类。这是什么，然而这是我们对某些议题发表自己的想法和观点的论坛。但当你使用“恐怖”这一单词，尤其是和其他单词联用，你必须接受其他人试着从你的意思中得到解答这一理念。否则，不要说什么这不是一个英语分类；只要说你不想说明，然后拉到吧。
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daydaydown

14#
GMan88  
Location: manila
To get back on topic, would Taiwan be able to fend off the Chinese (mainland)? Initially, maybe. Ultimately, no.
Would the US aid Taiwan? If the conflict drags on long enough, yes. But if the conflict is over and done with in a very short span of time, no i don't think so.
Do i think it's likely for china to "invade" taiwan? No.

回到话题，台湾能够抵抗中国（大陆）吗？一开始，能。最终，不能。
美国会支援台湾吗？如果冲突持续得足够长，会。但如果冲突短时间就结束并且处理了，我就不这么认为了。
中国“侵略”台湾可能吗？ 不可能。
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15#   
lirelou  
Location: Lutz
Quote:
To get back on topic, would Taiwan be able to fend off the Chinese (mainland)? Initially, maybe. Ultimately, no.
The answer to the first part demands the reasoned opinion of someone with recent experience observing and evaluating Taiwan's armed forces. The last time I was there, 2006, the opinion of a 48 year old ROC veteran was that today's ROC Army is no longer what it was in terms of the warrior spirit. I have no idea how valid that observation is.
As to the implied inevitable PRC victory, I would not rule out the unforeseen element. Taking on an island nation of 19 million across 100 miles of rough water is no easy task if the population is dead set against being taken. We must not rule out the 'Falklands factor'. The people of China have been weaned on the image of the invincible PLA. A serious defeat, especially at the hands of the 'Republic of China', could have serious unintended consequences for China's leadership.
They are certainly building toward the day when they can take Taiwan by force, but I expect that their actions will be a bit more conservative than their rhetoric. After all, friendly relations will convince more Taiwanese than confrontation, which simply reinforces why the ROC left the mainland in the first place.

引用14#
第一部分的答案需要有近期监测和评估台湾兵力经验的人给予理由充分的意见。我上次在那里，2006年，一个48岁ROC老兵的想法是今天的ROC军队已经没有多少遵循战士精神了。我不知道这个观察有多少根据。
关于暗示PRC必然胜利这点，我不会排除未知的因素。如果民众竭力反对被带走，那么接纳一个一亿九千万人口的岛国穿过100英里汹涌的海面并不是一个容易的任务。我们不能排除“福克兰群岛精神”的因素。中国人民已经习惯于PLA无敌的形象。一个严重的挫败，特别是在“ROC”手中，会对中国领导人造成严重的意想不到的后果。
（注：福克兰群岛精神，指面对危机，全民一心，不屈服的精神。前英国首相撒切尔夫人于福克兰战役时所倡）
他们肯定为了能以武力夺取台湾的那天而建设许久，但我认为他们的行动将比他们的修辞更保守一点。毕竟，友好关系会使更多的台湾人信服而不是反抗，否则仅仅支持了为什么当初ROC离开大陆。

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16#
Sino Invasion  
Location: Malaysia
Hmmm...
My take is it depends what physical state China wants Taiwan to be in when the war's over. They have over a thousand missiles aimed at Taiwan; not much defense to that. So if a Taiwan in smoldering ruins with a dead leadership is acceptable then I don't see much stopping them.
I also doubt the US would be able to do much. I give the Chinese credit for cunning. Unlike our military that is so ponderous and deadly predictable; I believe they would aim for maximum surprise. That would eliminate an effective US contribution to Taiwan's defense. And as others have mentioned; how much is the US ready to risk for a country that we agree is part of China? My bet, nothing significant.
And China is crazy on this topic. I lived there for a while and was always taken aback by the ferocity of the response when that question came up. And that was among the young, educated, yuppie types. Just imagine what the senior political and military types think. If they decide to attack Taiwan they will stop at nothing to win. It wouldn't be pretty.

嗯……
这取决于中国希望台湾在战争结束后是什么状态。他们有超过一千枚导弹瞄准台湾；而台湾对此没有多少防御。所以如果台湾随着死去的领导人变成一片冒烟的废墟是可以接受的，那么我看不到什么能阻止他们的因素。
我还怀疑美国能够做什么。我给中国的评价是狡猾。不像我们的军队那样沉闷呆板并且好猜得要命；我相信他们会以最大限度的奇袭为目标。那将排除美国有效帮助台湾的防守，就像其他人提到的那样；美国准备为一个我们同意是中国一部分的国家冒多少风险？我打赌，不会太重要。
而且中国对这个话题很狂热。我在那儿住了一段时间，总是惊讶当这个问题出现时恶狠狠的回应。而且是在年轻人中，受过教育的，中上阶层的年轻专业人士。只要猜猜地位较高的政派和军方人士想什么。如果他们决定攻打台湾他们将不惜一切代价。这一点也不美好。
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17#
GMan88  
Location: manila
Quote:
Originally Posted by lirelou  
The answer to the first part demands the reasoned opinion of someone with recent experience observing and evaluating Taiwan's armed forces. The last time I was there, 2006, the opinion of a 48 year old ROC veteran was that today's ROC Army is no longer what it was in terms of the warrior spirit. I have no idea how valid that observation is.
As to the implied inevitable PRC victory, I would not rule out the unforeseen element. Taking on an island nation of 19 million across 100 miles of rough water is no easy task if the population is dead set against being taken. We must not rule out the 'Falklands factor'. The people of China have been weaned on the image of the invincible PLA. A serious defeat, especially at the hands of the 'Republic of China', could have serious unintended consequences for China's leadership.
They are certainly building toward the day when they can take Taiwan by force, but I expect that their actions will be a bit more conservative than their rhetoric. After all, friendly relations will convince more Taiwanese than confrontation, which simply reinforces why the ROC left the mainland in the first place.
Thank you for your reply.
1) I've been there. I've seen them. I don't know about their "fighting spirit", but i believe the mettle of a soldier can only truly be tested, not seen. What i can say, though, is that their training is first rate.
2) It is my opinion that ultimately, the PRC will prevail. Again, my opinion only.
3) While I would not rule out the unforeseen element either, it's a smaller assumption to make that a larger, stronger, military will win over a smaller one, than it is to assume that the population (meaning a majority) is "dead set against being taken", when we all know that the pro-"taiwan independence" party had been soundly beaten the last national elections in taiwan.
4) I'm just curious, in your opinion/knowledge, why did the ROC leave the mainland in the first place?

引用15#
谢谢你的回复。
1) 我曾去过那儿。我曾见过他们。我不知道关于他们的“战斗精神” ，但是我相信一个士兵的勇气只能真实的经受考验，而不是看出来。我能够说的是，他们的训练是第一级别的。
2) 这是我根本上的观点，PRC会赢。再说一次，我唯一的观点。
3)然而我也不会排除任何一个不可预测的因素，当我们都知道支持“台湾独立”的政党在上次台湾大选中彻底落败，比起假设民众（意味着大多数人）都“竭力反抗被带走”，做出一个更大更强的军队赢了一个更小的军队是更可能的假设。
4) 我只是好奇，在你的观点/认识里，当初ROC为什么离开中国大陆？

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18#
GMan88  
Location: manila
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sino Invasion  
My take is it depends what physical state China wants Taiwan to be in when the war's over. They have over a thousand missiles aimed at Taiwan; not much defense to that. So if a Taiwan in smoldering ruins with a dead leadership is acceptable then I don't see much stopping them.
I also doubt the US would be able to do much. I give the Chinese credit for cunning. Unlike our military that is so ponderous and deadly predictable; I believe they would aim for maximum surprise. That would eliminate an effective US contribution to Taiwan's defense. And as others have mentioned; how much is the US ready to risk for a country that we agree is part of China? My bet, nothing significant.
And China is crazy on this topic. I lived there for a while and was always taken aback by the ferocity of the response when that question came up. And that was among the young, educated, yuppie types. Just imagine what the senior political and military types think. If they decide to attack Taiwan they will stop at nothing to win. It wouldn't be pretty.
I absolutely agree.  And yeah, it wouldn't be pretty.
I just hope it really doesnt reach that point. The last thing this world needs is another war.

引用16#
我完全同意。是啊，这不会太美好。
我只希望不会真的到了这个地步。这个世界最不需要的就是又一场战争。
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19#
les Brains  
Location: not here
What 'would' happen. I can't really say that, way too many variables.
What 'should' happen though might be simpler. Might be.
I would wonder, what effect it would have on China, if we told them, the second they attack all of the debt they have purchased is considered immediately paid off. The US would simply write off all the debt owed to them as 'paid in full'.
Not legal you say? That's an idiotic reply though. I can't picture the US supporting the attack, I can't see the US permitting the attack, I can't picture the US being able to send forces into the combat zone. So what precisely would the US wish to do?
The US is currently stretched to the limit and I can't imagine them sending aid to Taiwan. But if suddenly all that debt was gone, well it would sure change things.
If someone possessed a lot of my IOUs and then tomorrow tried top break into my best friends home, I would not have any trouble telling that person, get out immediately, or the IOUs are void.
And let's face it the US could sure use a lot of debt being eliminated eh.
I'd tell the Chinese, sorry but all of our trade is ceasing.
Let the Chinese keep all those Chinese workers happy. Yeah that massive military would shortly be needed for internal problems.

“将会”发生什么。 我不能确切的说出，毕竟方法上存在太多变数。
尽管可能更简单，但“应该会”发生什么。可能吧。
我想知道的是，对中国有什么影响，如果我们告诉他们，他们攻击的那一秒他们购买的所有国债就马上被认为已付清。美国就能简单的把属于中国的国债一笔勾销。
你说这不合法？那是愚蠢的回答。我不能想象美国支持中国动手，我不认为美国允许中国动手，我不能想象美国将会派遣兵力进入战区。这不恰恰是美国所期待的吗？
美国当前被拉伸到了极限，我不能想象他们支援台湾。但是如果突然间所有的债务消失了，一切当然改变。
如果有人掌握了我许多欠条，而且明天打算闯入我好朋友的家门，告诉人们马上离开，或欠条无效，我将不会有任何麻烦。
让我们面对现实，美国当然可以使用正在被淘汰的债务啊。
我要告诉中国人，抱歉但是我们所有的交易结束了。
让中国人保持所有中国工人愉快。没错，大量的兵力马上需要用于（解决中国的）内部问题。
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20#
Sino Invasion  
Location: Malaysia
To briefly answer your question...
"4) I'm just curious, in your opinion/knowledge, why did the ROC leave the mainland in the first place?
After China's last emperor fell; Dr. Sun Yat Sen took charge. Originally despised by the communists; he's now hailed as the father of modern Chinese nationalism. I can proudly say that I had the honor of being yelled at by his granddaugther when I lived there!  But he soon kicked the bucket and his protegee, Chiang Kai Shek, took over.
He hated the communists and did all he could to totally kill them off. This included chasing them, and damn near eliminating them; on what became known in commie myth and legend as "The Long March". Mao survived, rallied the peasants, and counter-attacked eventually driving CKS and his followers to the island of Formosa. During all this Japan was attacking China. Occassionally the two sides would try to fight the Japanese, but they seemed to prefer fighting each other. Not surprisingly with little success.
So that's a real brief overview of 20th century China. Real brief.

简略的回复你的问题……
引用17#
中国最后一个皇帝下台后；孙中山先生掌管大权。他起初被共产党轻视；他现在被称赞为中国现代民族主义之父。我可以骄傲的说，当我住在那儿的时候，我有幸让他的孙女训斥过！然而孙很快踢到铁板。常凯申接管了政权。
他憎恨共产党员，尽其所能屠杀他们。这包括追赶他们，谴责亲信，消除他们；这在共产党党史中很出名，还成就了“红军长征”这样的传奇。毛坚持下来，团结了农民，并且还击，最终把常凯申和他的追随者推进到了福尔摩沙。在此期间日本正在攻打中国。有时双方试图努力联合对抗日本，但他们似乎更喜欢互殴。抗日收效甚微也不足为奇。
所以这是一个真正简短的二十世纪中国的概述。真的很短。
译注：北京清华大学历史系副主任王奇在一部学术专著中将蒋介石（Chiang Kai-shek）翻译成“常凯申”，成为中国名校制造的又一起学术笑料。与当年将孟子翻译成“门修斯”如出一辙。滑天下之大稽，毁清华百年之声誉。
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21#
Alatriste  
Location: Texas
I opine the US would not come to Taiwan's aid.

我认为美国不会涉及台湾的援助。

daydaydown

AdrianE  
Location: Ottawa, Ontario
Quote:
Originally Posted by tnbn75  
now what nobody realizes is all the taiwanese companies have moved thier factories to china for the cheap labor.
No they haven't. The Taiwanese government is very sensitive about allowing state of the art manufacturing to go to the mainland. IIRC UMC's president went to jail for violating this law.

引用6#
不，他们不会。台湾政府对允许关键技术制造业公司转移到大陆非常敏感。联华电子公司的董事长因违反这条法令而入狱。

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23#
GMan88  
Location: manila
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sino Invasion  
"4) I'm just curious, in your opinion/knowledge, why did the ROC leave the mainland in the first place?
After China's last emperor fell; Dr. Sun Yat Sen took charge. Originally despised by the communists; he's now hailed as the father of modern Chinese nationalism. I can proudly say that I had the honor of being yelled at by his granddaugther when I lived there! But I stray. But he soon kicked the bucket and his protegee, Chiang Kai Shek, took over.
He hated the communists and did all he could to totally kill them off. This included chasing them, and damn near eliminating them; on what became known in commie myth and legend as "The Long March". Mao survived, rallied the peasants, and counter-attacked eventually driving CKS and his followers to the island of Formosa. During all this Japan was attacking China. Occassionally the two sides would try to fight the Japanese, but they seemed to prefer fighting each other. Not surprisingly with little success.
So that's a real brief overview of 20th century China. Real brief.
Haha yeah that's a real brief overview. The long and short of it is that the 2 sides really hated each other. And while I won't argue the merits of either side (that's for another thread), all i can say is that the KMT at that time was so corrupt and its own soldiers so demoralized there were even documented instances when their soldiers had to be chained during marches just so that they won't desert during the night.
Anyway, the reason i asked my question why ROC left china in the first place, was because in lirelou's post he writes "After all, friendly relations will convince more Taiwanese than confrontation, which simply reinforces why the ROC left the mainland in the first place." While i agree with the first part, I just wanted to know in what context he writes the last part of that sentence.

引用20#
哈哈，没错，是一个很短的概述。基本上双方的确互相憎恨。然而我不是想讨论任何一方的功绩(那是另一个话题了)，我所能说的是国民党当时太腐败而且士兵们士气低迷，甚至有文件资料记录当他们的士兵不得不被困在边境地区时，士兵们不想趁夜逃走。
总之，我会问当初ROC离开中国这个问题的原因是因为lirelou（15#）说“毕竟，友好关系会使更多的台湾人信服而不是反抗，否则仅仅支持了为什么当初ROC离开了大陆。” 虽然我同意第一部分，但我想知道有关他写的最后一部分里那句话的来龙去脉。

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24#
GMan88  
Location: manila
errr... so i guess simply unilaterally declaring that one's debts will no longer be honored is a smart move? it'll really make other creditors real confident on the papers they're holding? and i guess next time the US wants/needs to borrow more credit, will the creditors come in droves, specially when they know they'll be at the whim of the US whether they'll get paid?

呃……所以我想只是单方面宣称某人的债务将不再被兑现是一个聪明的行为吗？真的能让其他债权人对他们正拿着的欠条信心十足？我想下次我们想要/需要借到更多的钱，债权人会成群结队到来，特别是当他们想知道在我们一时兴起时是否能得到报酬？
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25#
lirelou  
Location: Lutz
Gman88, My apologies for not addressing your question sooner. While the obvious answer for the move to Taiwan is that they (the KMT) were losing the war, I see that as the catalyst, not the reason itself. While some who picked up and moved to Taiwan may have merely been following orders, my take is that the great majority were sincere anti-communists. They truly believed that to remain was to risk extermination. Those who were wishy-washy on that subject did remain in China and took their chances (unwisely, for many). History has not proven them wrong. A China willing to risk war over Taiwan is not to be trusted by Taiwanese of any political persuasion.

Gman88，我为没有早点回复你的问题道歉。而答案显而易见，当他们（国民党)转移到台湾就失去了这场战争的胜利，我认为那是一个刺激因素，而不是原因本身。有人被带走并转移至台湾可能仅仅遵从命令，但我认为，绝大多数是真正的反共分子。他们确实相信留下来需冒着斩草除根的风险。那些人在留在中国和碰运气（很不明智，对许多人来说）这个问题上软弱无力。但历史还没有证明他们错了。中国愿意承担对台湾宣战的风险是不被任何一个台湾政治派系相信的。
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26#
GMan88  
Location: manila
Hi lirelou nice to hear from you.
Thanks for your reply, I appreciate the well-thought out and reasoned post. its a real pleasure to exchange thoughts and opinion with people like you (and some others here too), and while i won't always agree with what you write, I'd just like to say this now, i do appreciate the time taken to write, the civility,and the intelligence in the words that are posted (and also by the posts of others in this forum).
That said, however, I'd also have to say, yes, i guess some KMT civilians were realistic enough to know that the victors will not always be merciful to the losers. If the situation had been reversed and the KMT were winning, that would also be true. Specially in a war as bitterly fought as that civil war. This has happened throughout world history, and sadly will happen again.
War should never be the answer.

Hi lirelou，很高兴收到你的回复。
谢谢你的回复。我欣赏考虑周详并且理由充分的发言。很高兴与像你这样的人（还有这里另一些人）交流想法和观点，然而我不那么同意你所写的，我现在就要说这个，我欣赏你花时间去写，在发言中有礼貌有脑袋（当然也来自论坛里其他人的留言）。
也就是说，无论如何，我也不得不说，没错，我认为一些国民党平民足够实事求是，懂得胜者不总是对失败者仁慈，如果情况反过来，国民党赢了，那也是正确的。特别是一场像内战那样痛苦的战争。世界史上曾经发生过，并且将再次痛苦的发生。
战争从来不是答案。
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27#
les Brains  
Location: not here
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMan88  
errr... so i guess simply unilaterally declaring that one's debts will no longer be honored is a smart move? it'll really make other creditors real confident on the papers they're holding? and i guess next time the US wants/needs to borrow more credit, will the creditors come in droves, specially when they know they'll be at the whim of the US whether they'll get paid?
You missed including the context.
Unilaterally declaring the debts were voided AFTER a 'hostile action' was taken against them or a friend is a big deal different than just saying they ain't paying.
I'd have no beef if a nation unilaterally punished an aggressor like that. Wouldn't make the debtor suddenly look bad at all.
Frankly if you want to get paid a debt I owe you, NOT attacking me or my friends is a good idea.
Because otherwise the gloves are off and honouring a debt no longer interests me. Hey, if I'm willing to shoot at you I'm ok with ripping up your debt too.

24#
你漏了背景。
在一次对付他们或者朋友的“敌对行动”之后，单方面的宣布债务被废弃比起只是说不还了有很大的不同。
如果一个国家这样单方面惩罚侵略者，我不会有怨言。不会让借债方突然看起来糟糕。
坦白讲，如果你想我还债，不要攻击我或者我的朋友是一个好注意。
否则甩开膀子大干和承诺兑现债务就不再使我感兴趣了。嘿，如果我愿意对你开火，撕毁债务也没问题。
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28#
GMan88  
Location: manila
sadly, i didn't miss your context. I got your context the first time around.
And that's the big question, isn't it? Would the US risk a shooting war with China? (and vice versa, of course).
The bottom line though, is, here you have a creditor who holds a portion of your debt. On the other hand you have a debtor who, of course, in the course of borrowing, promised to pay. Now, what you're saying is that, since the creditor has some "beef" with someone else, whom you say is your "friend", you can now say, "hey if you don't let him off i won't pay my debt to you."
Now, where in the creditor/debtor agreement does that friend come in? don't you think the debtor's unilateral inclusion of a condition (be it political or whatnot) affect that debtor's credit rating?

遗憾的是,我没有漏掉背景。我第一时间就理解你所说的前后关系。
然而这是最大的问题，对吧？美国愿意承担和中国来一场热战（注：真枪实弹的战争，与冷战对应）的风险？（当然，反过来也一样）。
然而本质内容是，你有一个持有你部分债务的债主。另一方面来说你是一个借方，当然，在借钱的期间许诺会偿还。如今，你说的是这个意思吧，自从债主对那些你说是你的“朋友”的人有了些“抱怨”，你现在就可以说，“嘿，你不能放过他，否则我不还钱。”
现在，在借贷协议里朋友起作用了？你不认为借方单方面默认这样一个条件（政治上的或者其他不可说的）会影响借方的信用评级吗？
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29#   
GCoyote  
Location: Laurel, MD, USA
Random comments on the ROC vs the PRC
We mentioned in another thread about the tens of billions in cross straights business going on right now. Consider how many ROC citizens are working in the PRC right now and vice versa. How many do you suppose also work for their respective governments collecting information?
In the event of a war I suspect the PRC would not have to insert all of its
special operations units into the ROC because I think a number of them might already be there.
OTOH it would be a bit difficult to mass large PRC forces in secret for a large assault because of the hordes of foreigners running around the country on business.
So while the two militaries prepare for a worst-case scenario, their respective economies are already beginning to integrate.In the future a Chinese politician could conceivably win the Nobel Peace Prize for some sort of after the fact political deal when the ordinary citizens business people have already done all of the hard work.

随意说一说ROC VS PRC
我们提到另一个思路，关于现在正在进行的数百亿交叉或直接的贸易。考虑到多少ROC国民正在PRC工作，反过来也一样。你猜有多少人为各自的政府从事收集信息工作呢？
如果发生战争，我猜PRC不需要让所有特种部队进驻ROC，因为我认为许多特种部队已经在那儿了。
另一个方面来说，秘密聚集大量PRC军队进行大型攻击有点难，因为一大群外国人在那个国家东奔西跑做生意。
因此两军必须对最糟糕的情况有所准备，他们各自的经济早已开始整合。当普通商业人士已经做了所有困难的工作，一个中国政治家在未来可以令人信服的赢得诺贝尔和平奖。
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30#
GMan88  
Location: manila
I guess to put it more simply:
IF you owe the bank some money, and the bank moves to foreclose your friend's house, can you tell the bank "hey he's my friend and if you foreclose his house your going against me! IF you do that i won't pay my debt to you!" And true enough to your word, you don't pay. Now, what do you think the other banks will say to that?

我想表诉得更简单点：
如果你欠银行一些钱，而且银行准备收回你朋友的房子，你可以跟银行说“嘿，他是我的朋友，如果你收回他的房子就是在对抗我！如果你这么做我绝不会还债给你！” ？而你话里真正的意思就是，你不想还钱。现在，你认为其他银行会怎么说呢？
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31#
Salinator  
Location: no man's land
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMan88  
4) I'm just curious, in your opinion/knowledge, why did the ROC leave the mainland in the first place?
It was a tactical retreat. The KMT had dreams of reunification from their position in Taiwan with their "One China Policy". They then softened their stance to the "Three No's Policy" sometime during the 70's.

引用17#
那是一个战术撤退。国民党梦想他们从台湾方位以“一个中国政策”重新统一大陆。他们随后在70年代某个时期对中共的“三不政策”软化了立场。

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32#   
GMan88  
Location: manila
interesting.
anyway,i think the consensus in this thread is that china will not invade taiwan, and if it does, there's nothing taiwan (or other countries) can do about it, and the speed/effectivity of the "invasion" pretty much depends in what condition the mainland will want taiwan to be in.
assuming an invasion scenario, in this case, the fact that the taiwanese aren't really enemies of the mainland will pretty much hamper the use of the more destructive weapons of war. For the simple reason that they're not really out to "kill", only to control, the use of heavy weapons will most likely be very tightly controlled. With the public relations angle factored into any "invasion", the "shock and awe" will most likely take the form of sudden military presence rather than waves of destruction. And from there, its an exercise in strategy, which i'd love to dicuss but i don't know if this is the proper forum for that.

真有趣。
不管怎样，我认为这个话题中一致认为中国不会侵略台湾，如果侵略发生了，台湾（或者其他国家）对此做不了什么， “侵略”的速度/效率大致上依赖于大陆想要台湾变成什么状况。
设定一个侵略的情节，在这种情况下，事实是台湾人并不是大陆真正的敌人，他们将会对更具杀伤力的战争武器的使用起到更多牵制作用。原因很简单，他们并不是必须被“杀死”，只要被控制了，使用重型武器将很可能会被控制得非常严格。从公共关系因素角度考虑任何“侵略”，“震慑行动”很可能将会以出乎意料的军事驻扎这样的形式进行，而不是破坏。而从那时起，台湾就是一个战略存在，这是我想要讨论的，但是我不知道在这个论坛上是否合适。
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33#
GCoyote  
Location: Laurel, MD, USA
As long as people are interested
Random though: instead of a major conventional assault, suppose the PRC decided to blockade the ROC.
Would the US start a shooting war with another nuclear power when no one else had been harmed yet?
Would the ROC initiate combat knowing there were hundreds of TBMs aimed at them?

既然大家感兴趣
我胡乱说点想法：取代了常规攻击，假设PRC决定封锁ROC。
当还没有人被伤害时，美国会与另一个有核国家展开热战吗？
ROC进入战争状态会知道有数以百计的战略弹道导弹对着他们吗？