|
|
本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-12-29 14:39 编辑
Fear Recoupling in ’12, Not End of the World: William Pesek http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-27/fear-recoupling-in-12-not-end-of-the-world-commentary-by-william-pesek.html
William Pesek is based in Tokyo and writes on economics, markets and politics throughout the Asia-Pacific region. His journalism awards include the 2010 Society of American Business Editors and Writers prize for commentary.
More about William Pesek
The Mayans were wrong. The worldwon’t end in 2012, but at times it may feel as if it’s about to.Such is Asia (MXAP)’s lot as Europe’s debt debacle and the U.S.’spolitical paralysis fuse, presenting challenges for leaders fromBeijing to Jakarta.
In a less chaotic time, this might have been Asia’s bigmoment. News this week that Japan and China will promote directtrading of yen and yuan without using dollars is a case inpoint. An eastward shift of power and capital would seem to be agiven as Brussels and Washington turn inward. Yet a worseningglobal environment will interrupt Asia’s path to economicdominance.
Here are eight risks that may get in Asia’s way:
No. 1. Recoupling. Asia steered around the U.S. meltdown in2008 with remarkable agility. Doing that will be harder in the12 months ahead as all of the world’s major growth engines stallor go into reverse. Default risks in Europe will increase, theU.S.’s funk will persist in an election year, Japan’s malaisewill deepen and China will hit a soft patch. With deft fiscaland monetary maneuvering, Asia grew impressively in the three-plus years since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. imploded. Arepeat performance is unlikely.
Toxic Mix No. 2. Pocketbook Worries. Consumers will become moredissatisfied with the toxic mix of inflation and widening incomeinequality. Leaders aren’t doing enough to make sure thebenefits of growth are shared equitably. As the Gini coefficient-- a statistical measure of wealth inequality -- rises acrossAsia, increasing tensions will play out in unpredictable ways inmarkets and politics.
No. 3. Occupy Wukan. It’s getting harder for China to keepits 1.3 billion people from hearing about events in a coastalvillage in Guangdong province. There, thousands of people fed upwith land seizures took to the streets and forced out CommunistParty officials. This Occupy Wall Street dynamic is a startlingcontrast to the usual success China has in quashing any hint ofpublic discord. As the New York Times points out, there are atleast 625,000 potential Wukans in China. The 12 months aheadwill be busy for China’s thought police.
Election Year No. 4. Political Intrigue. China, Hong Kong, South Koreaand Taiwan will pick new leaders. State elections in India willhelp determine if Rahul Gandhi will soon replace his mother,Sonia Gandhi, as president of the ruling Congress Party.Taiwan’s contest could be a standout -- a verdict on PresidentMa Ying-jeou’s economic policies and drive for better relationswith China. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea couldbubble over. Violence might break out in Thailand if oustedPrime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is allowed to return. InMyanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi’s move to register her party forelections will test the government’s recent steps towarddemocracy.
No. 5. The Kim Follies. As the world gets used to Kim Jong Un replacing Kim Jong Il as North Korean leader, there’s notelling how things will unfold in Pyongyang. Will the 20-something Kim feel obliged to show he means business withmissile launches into the South and nuclear tests? Mightmilitary generals who covet the top job rebel? The questionsabout the world’s most secretive regime hover over all of Asia.
Great Wall No. 6. Internet Clampdown. Beijing’s great wall ofcensorship is raising cyber clampdowns to an art form, thelatest on Twitter-like services. Yet the Internet is underattack throughout Asia. India is stepping up efforts to requireFacebook Inc., Google Inc. and other portals to remove contentthat may be deemed offensive. South Korea and Thailand have beensuppressing more and more information. Balancing transparencyand state control of information will become harder.
No. 7. Japan’s Debt Trap. The conventional take is thatJapan is in a liquidity trap, which makes it impossible for zerointerest rates to stimulate the economy. The real problem is adebt trap, and the yen is part of it. On the one hand, a strongcurrency is prompting companies to go shopping overseas to hedgeagainst the country’s aging population, lack of growth and avulnerability to earthquakes and other disasters. On the other,it is further hollowing out Japanese industry. That will leadJapan to add to its debt, the world’s largest, risking furthercredit downgrades.
Chinese Gravity No. 8. China’s Bust. It’s a make-or-break year for China’sefforts to defy the economic laws of gravity. A bad-debthangover from the huge stimulus of recent years is a distinctpossibility. Markedly slower growth would be a nightmare for aCommunist Party obsessed with social stability. It also would bea big blow to a country such as Australia, which is morevulnerable to a Chinese slump than officials in Canberra admit.
Should the second-biggest economy join the U.S., Europe andJapan in the slow-growth club, Asia would find itself intreacherous territory. That wouldn’t be the end of the world asthe Mayans anticipated for 2012, but it would be different thanthe one we’ve come to know.
 该贴已经同步到 lilyma06的微博 |
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2011-12-28 11:25
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2011-12-28 13:16