英国《经济学人》：渐行渐远的印度经济 -------India’s economy Slip-sliding away
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：winds007
原文地址：http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/12/india%E2%80%99s-economy
EXPECTATIONS for India’s economic growth rate have been sliding inexorably. In the early spring there was still heady talk about 9-10% being the new natural rate of expansion, a trajectory which if maintained would make the country an economic superpower in a couple of decades. Now things look very different. The latest GDP growth figure slipped to 6.9% and industrial production numbers just released, on December 12th, showed a decline of 5.1% compared with the previous period, a miserable state of affairs. The slump looks broadly based, from mining to capital goods, and in severity compares with that experienced at the height of the financial crisis, in February 2009, when a drop of 7.2% took place. Bombast is turning to panic.
原本对印度经济增长率的美好预期被无情地扼杀了，在今年的早春，人们仍然兴奋地盛赞印度的自然率达到9%-10%，如果保持这样的速度的话数十年后这个国家就会成为世界一极。但现在事与愿违，最新的GDP数据显示增长率已滑落到6.9%，工业生产数据刚刚发布，截止至12月12日为止，数据显示较之以往同期减少5.1%，是个悲惨的态势。这衰退似乎是多种原因所致，从采矿业到各类资本货物均略显疲态。加之经历过2009年2月金融风暴时期的最高点---7.2%的下滑，夸张的说就是一片恐慌。
Several riders apply. The industrial production series is notoriously volatile—most economists admit to being baffled by its swings. The comparison with the prior year period was unflattering. And it would be surprising if India were not hurt by the agonies of the rich world—after all from China to Brazil investors are jittery about the outlook, too. Moreover the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been raising rates through the year to try to bring inflation, running at some 9%, under control. At Mumbai drinks parties, after a scotch too many, industrialists can be reduced to apoplexy on this subject—the central bank, they argue, has overreacted, killing growth to tame an inflation problem that is largely the result of structural factors such as poor food supply chains.
随便问街头的几个骑车的人，便会了解到印度的工业生产是出了名的不稳定，大部分的经济学者都承认印度是被自身的（工业）摇摆不定所束缚，与上年的数据相比你就知道了。惊奇的是，印度没有被外界的繁荣所苦恼，毕竟从中国到巴西，投资者都对未来展望审时度势。更重要的是，印度央行（RBI）已经加息，旨在降低使通胀降低到9%以下并使其得到控制。在孟买的酒会上，几位实业家在几杯威士忌穿肠过肚后，变得中风般的谈论央行这个话题，他们过激地辩道：让增长率刹车的通胀问题，大部分是由于结构性因素如羸弱的食品供应链所导致的。
Yet another factor looms. Years of government drift have meant a loss of momentum on reform, from building infrastructure to controlling graft. That drift was symbolised by the ruling coalition’s decision this month to allow in foreign supermarkets into India, which it was forced to reverse two weeks later after widespread protests and objections from the smaller parties it relies on to stay in power. India’s economy can seem like a bicycle—it needs to keep moving fast to be stable. Once conviction in the destination falters, companies curb investment and hope turns to fear that the country’s problems may be intractable.
另一个原因可怕地出现了，这些年来政府政策的偏离，即在改革的动力变弱，从基础建设到反贪腐均出现这些情况。象征性的例子可参考这个月执政联盟决定允许外国超市进军印度，但这项决策在两星期后遭到一些有实力的小政党的大面积反对和抗议，并要求撤回决策。印度的经济可以看作是一辆单车---骑得越快越不容易倒。一旦目标出现动摇，这些控制着投资和信心的公司会立刻对这个国家的未来发展感到恐慌，会觉得这个国家正在面临棘手的难题。
An optimistic reading of these latest numbers is that they might force India’s politicians to move beyond the rancour of recent months and agree a program of reforms that would bolster confidence at home and abroad. But given a busy electoral cycle the odds of that seem poor. The concern now is that if growth slows a whole lot of other worries come to the fore, from potential bad debts in the banking system, the government’s poor fiscal position and the challenge of funding a current-account deficit when outside investors have got cold feet. Already the rupee has slid reflecting the last of those worries. India’s finances look solid when it is motoring along at close to double digits and weak when it is expanding at half that rate.
也可以用一种乐观的方式来看待这些最新的数据，这些数据会促使印度政客把最近几个月的民众的不满从视线中移走，取而代之的是赞成一些程序性的政策，这些政策能提高印度自身和对外的自信心，但考虑到繁忙的选举周期，这个可能性似乎很低。现在人们关注的是增长放缓使得一大堆要担忧的事情变得迫在眉睫----从银行系统里潜在的坏账、政府糟糕的财政状况，到当外界投资者胆怯时为经常项目赤字提供资金的挑战，现在卢比的贬值已经反映出以上这些担忧了。印度的财政看起来很立体，因其驾驭了两位数的增长良久，但当其疲软下来的时候呈现的是另一面，即两位数增长的一半。
Given all this an uncomfortable burden of expectation now sits on the shoulders of the RBI, one of the few government institutions in India that commands respect, albeit grudgingly from some business folk. It could start cutting rates. But given inflation is still quite persistent, this would involve a theological U-turn. It has other tools available to try to ease the supply of credit, such as lowering the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves, creating room on their balance sheets to lend more. Unless there is a sudden change in government policy—or those statistics are shown to be cranky—action now seems likely. But as in the rich world, India may find that central banks cannot always work short-term economic miracles, nor sustain long-term ones all on their own.
考虑到这些不安的期望负担正坐落在印度央行的肩膀上，即使一些民企很不情愿，印度的一些备受尊重的政府机构也应该开始减息，但考虑到通胀依然坚挺，实施中应运用神奇的“U形大转弯”，用其他有效的工具尝试缓和信用的补给，例如降低银行必须持有现金储备的数量，为他们的资产负债创造空间，使其能借出更多钱。除非政府政策出现突然变动，又或者那些统计信息是动摇的，否则印度政府非常有可能在近期执行上述举措。但由于身处发达国家环绕之中，印度或许会发现央行不可能总是创造短期经济奇迹，更不用说只靠自己创造持续的长期经济奇迹了。
评论翻译:
Jai Prakash SharmaDec 22nd 2011 16:22 GMT It's the economic policy drift, lack of political will to push requisite economic/fiscal reforms and curb public graft, failure in addressing the supply side structural causes responsible for rising inflation, the apex bank's inflation targeted excessive monetary intervention impeding long term growth, combined with the global economic slow down, which seem to have contributed to the Indian economy's blurred prospects. 经济政策的偏离、政策上推动经济/财政改革的动力的缺失、对贪腐的控制的失败、在解决结构性原因所致的上升通胀上的无力、顶端银行通过过度的货币干预来解决通胀，阻碍长期发展，结合到低迷的全球经济，上述这些都使印度经济的前景变得模糊。
John LinlithgowDec 22nd 2011 13:00 GMT @ Indian Facts
Reading those posts looks more positive for India than negative, in all honesty... Your article for example says that India is not a trillion dollar economy but a 994 Billion Dollar economy. That is quite positive for india actually. You won't realise it but the India trolls can pick up a few lines from each and every one of your posts for their own gain. Welcome to the forum. Which country are you from? 读罢楼主的这些帖子，似乎对印度的积极看法胜于消极，真的。 你文中的例子道曰印度不是一个万亿美元经济体，而是一个9940亿美元的经济体，这实际上是对印度的鼓舞。 但你不了解的是，这些印度巨魔（译者注：印度五毛）会为了自身利益来攻击你文中的一言一语。
Connect The DotsDec 12th 2011 18:25 GMT India's greatest to becoming a Superpower is its own Third World Infrastructure. And the Government rather than building infrastructure, has pie-in-the-sky hopes that multinational conglomerates will come and build roads, power plants, and sewers for free. Compared to China, India does not have the bones to be a sustainable long term exporting giant. And with unreliable electricity neither will it be a technology or finance center. India has labor, brains and youth. But it lacks land and capital to be truely competitive. 印度仅凭他那第三世界般的基础建设能发展成为世界一极。（译者注：讽刺状）政府开空头支票的能力要胜于落实基础建设，扬言跨国公司会来咱这免费修大路、搞发电厂和修下水道。 较之中国，印度没有能成为长期出口巨人的条件，加之其不可信的电力供应，你还会相信印度会发展成科技和金融中心吗？ 印度有青壮劳动力，印度人有头脑，但印度缺少土地和资本，这使其变得缺少竞争力。
jourisDec 12th 2011 19:39 GMT Is this how India shows itself to be a great power? That its politicians are so disfunctional that keeping the economy from blowing up has to be handled by the central bank. Of all the fatures of the developed world, this isn't really the one India should be emulating. 这是不是印度显示自己能成为世界强国的方式？这些政客都是脑残，他们使经济炸毁，然后让央行来接管。在未来世界的发展来看，印度真不是一个效仿的对象。 criticalobserverDec 13th 2011 3:34 GMT One of the main reasons for China's economic rise is that there is gender equality in China and that the women hold up half of the sky (using Mao's words). In a recent Economist report, women constitute 46% of the Chinese labour force. What is the corresponding figure for India ? Are Indian women equal to their men socially and economically ? 让中国经济上升的其中一个重要因素是，他们是男女平等的，巾帼撑起半边天（引自《毛泽东语录》）。最近的一个经济报告显示，女性占据了中国劳动力的46%，印度的相关数据是？印度的女性在社交上和经济上能和他们的男性平等吗？
k.a.gardnerDec 13th 2011 5:47 GMT Whatever happened to the great super highway loop that India was building around the countryside to keep workers from drifting to the oil fields of Saudi Arabia? I'm sure TE (or National Geographic) ran a piece on that although I've had one too many (Mumbai) Scotches so I may be mis-remembering. 无论发生什么事情，印度总是在建设一条“超级人口高速公路”，这“公路”不断地从印度乡间输送工人到沙特阿拉伯的油田里。 我确信《国家地理杂志》应该拥有这段“公路”的一段的经营权，虽然我已经喝了很多孟买的威士忌了（译者注：呼应上文），以致我可能神志不清了。
bFbTpWKQDD in reply to www.hedgehogger.comDec 14th 2011 10:12 GMT In such a case, like somebody said, "India needs a benevolent dictator." What say? 在这种情况下，正如某人所说，“印度需要一位仁慈的独裁者（译者注：剑指甘地）”，这话怎么说来着？
Chess-WriterDec 15th 2011 5:52 GMT I would really like some of the commentators above to mention their nationality such is the vitriol in their comments. Some of them come across as sophisticated trolls. 我想说某些评论者是带有种族主义的，例如在这里看到这些“酸”评论就知道了，他们中的有些人看起来是老练的五毛。 India does have her problems, some of them big and some small, but the general trend is towards improvement in all fields. This is something external observers will find hard to analyse since they use static numbers to measure something ever changing and dynamic. 印度是有他的问题，有些是大问题有些是小问题，但总体趋势各行各业都是一片向好的。这是某些外界观察者很难分析出来的，因为他们都用数据来衡量曾经的变化。 The growth is harder to see in some cases because a 0.1% improvement in 100 fields is harder to appreciate than 100% improvement in 1 field. Using the sam eample, a 0.1% improvement for a Billion people is harder to see than a 100% improvement for a Million.
较小的增长难以入眼，可以这样说吧，因为100个领域里的0.1%增长较之以1个领域里的100%增长来的不显眼，同样地，十亿人民的0.1%增长对比1百万人的100%增长来的不显眼。
indica in reply to BreazzanoDec 14th 2011 13:20 GMT Countries do not 'deliberately adopt' democracy or some other system. History leads a country, or at least, its leaders to steer it towards some kind of political system. For example, whatever the 'system' Japan, Taiwan and South Korea started out with, they have moved from that. 回复某人：国家不会有意地采用民主或是其他制度，历史领导着国家发展，或者至少是这样的，国家的领导人驾驭着某些政治体制。例如，无论日本、台湾和韩国刚开始是什么体制的，现在他们都已经醒悟过来了。 India's constitutional and political system seemed to follow from the ideas and notions of the British Raj. 印度的宪法和政治制度似乎使仿效英国统治的观念的。 Likewise, in China, the civil war resulted in one party, authoritarian states in both mainland China and in Taiwan. 同样地，在中国，解放战争导致了中国大陆和台湾一党独裁政权的诞生。 Therefore, I suggest your assessment is somewhat two dimensional and okay for a chat while waiting for a bus.. 因此，我认为你的评论有点二维，就像是在等公交车时的闲聊（译者注：我搞不懂。。） May I point out that China had a very strong authoritarian system from 1949 to 1970, with no economic development. Instead, up to 70 million Chinese people died of starvation. 容许我指出中国曾在1949-1970年出现了一个非常强大的独裁政权，那时经济毫无发展，取而代之的是7000万中国人终成饿殍。 Only when that authoritarian system was modified by Deng Hsiao Ping, did we see the natural business flare of the Chinese come out in full. 待到邓小平修改了这个独裁体制，我们才能充分的看到这个自然的经济巨人的璀璨。 India will eventually get there in her own way. 印度将最终也会按着自己的步伐发展成那样。 History is a very long road sir. Don't judge the entire journey by the scenery you are passing through right now. 历史是一段很长的路，先生，请不要通过沿途的某处风景来判断整个路途。
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