本帖最后由 yusuf1124 于 2011-12-30 01:13 编辑
【中文标题】中国，你莫入“歧途”
【原文标题】Dealing With China's Troubles
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【来源地址】http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/opinion/dealing-with-chinas-troubles.html
【译 者】武大郎
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
China’s economy seems to be in trouble, which could be a very big problem for the world unless China’s leaders and trading partners ensure that economic strains in the world’s largest exporting nation do not lead to trade confrontations around the globe. 中国的经济似乎遇上了些麻烦，而且对于整个世界来讲可能还是一个很大的麻烦，除非中国的领导者及其贸易伙伴能够确保这个世界上最大的对外出口国家面临的经济压力不会导致世界范围内的贸易对抗。 China’s housing bubble appears to be imploding, steel production is falling along with the demand for new construction and real estate developers are tottering, putting banks at risk. The Chinese government, which had been trying to curtail credit to slow the bubble’s rise, abruptly changed course last month, reducing the amount of money banks must keep in reserve at the central bank for the first time since 2008. On top of everything else, foreign demand for Chinese exports has slowed. 中国的房地产泡沫似乎就要破裂，钢铁产量随着新的房产建设需求的减少而在下降，房地产开发商面临困境，同时也危及到了银行。早已经开始削减信贷以减缓泡沫增加的中国政府在上个月突然改变航向，08年以来首次宣布下调存款准备金率。最要紧的是，国外对中国的出口需求减少了。 A hard landing in China would have an immediate impact from Brazil to Russia, whose exports of steel, lumber and other commodities fed China’s construction boom. And it will slow the world economy, which relies on China as one of the only remaining engines of growth. 中国的经济硬着陆会对俄罗斯、巴西等国造成立竿见影的影响，正是它们的钢铁、木材和其它物品的出口造就了中国建造业的繁荣。世界经济也会受到影响，因为中国是世界经济增长的唯一驱动引擎。 But the bigger risk could be a trade war. Chinese leaders eager to hang on to power by showing continued economic growth may be tempted to pursue beggar-thy-neighbor strategies and subsidize exports in ways that would further destabilize a fragile world economy already buffeted by a crisis in Europe. 但是更大的危险是会爆发一场贸易战争。中国领导人渴望通过其不断增长的经济来握住霸权，这可能使其倾向于邻国沟壑策略(说的朝鲜、巴基斯坦吧)，以及通过对脆弱的世界经济造成破坏的方式补贴出口，原本世界经济就已受到欧债危机的不断冲击。 There are worrying signs that Beijing is going the wrong way. Earlier this month, it imposed a volley of duties against American-made sport utility vehicles. It will have little economic importance as few of these vehicles are sold in China. But analysts viewed the move as a warning that China will retaliate against Washington’s efforts to combat its subsidized exports. And the pace of appreciation of China’s currency has slowed markedly. 有令人担忧的迹象表明，北京正走在一条错误的路上。本月早些时候，中国决定对美国制造的越野车征收反倾销税和反补贴税。由于这些车在中国的销售很少，这些关税的影响微乎其微，但分析者却把这项举动看作是北京方面对华盛顿的报复，起因是美国对中国补贴出口行为的斗争。同时，人民币升值的步伐也在显著减慢。 The Obama administration must also act with care. It is justified in challenging illegal trade practices, including pursuing its case at the World Trade Organization against illegal subsidies of Chinese makers of solar panels. But it should act multilaterally, including mustering other countries to add to the pressure on Beijing to act by the rules. Unilateral initiatives, like those in Congress to punish China for its cheap currency, are likely to cause more harm than good.The ball is, however, in China’s court. Beijing must understand that it is a bad idea to double-down on an export-led strategy. There are better alternatives, including sensible stimulus measures like investing in low-income housing and expanding government-run health insurance. These would boost consumer spending and growth, reducing China’s dependence on export markets and investment bubbles. A policy switch like this would stimulate global growth. Sticking to the old game plan will drag the world down. 奥巴马政府还必须小心行事。反对非法贸易行为是合理的，这包括向世贸组织起诉中国对太阳能的非法补贴。但应该采取多边行动，包括号召其它国家对北京施压，以促使其遵守规定。单方面的行动，例如国会对中国保持低汇率的惩罚措施，只能是弊大于利。然而，需要做出反应的是中国。中国有许多更好的选择，包括合理的刺激措施，例如投资低收入住房以及扩大政府运行的医疗保险。这些措施将会刺激消费和经济增长，减少中国对出口市场和投资泡沫的依赖。这样的政策转变将会刺激世界经济的增长。如果仍然执迷不悟的话只会把世界带入深渊。
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