【BBC120104】中国地产：蓬勃的市场开始坐卧不安

yasmina

【原文标题】China property: Booming market begins to splutter

【中文标题】中国地产：蓬勃的市场开始坐卧不安

【登载媒体】  BBC
【来源地址】http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16009050
【译  者】 yasmina

【翻译方式】 人工
【声  明】     欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

【译  文】

只需看看北京那些高耸的知名建筑，就能了解现在中国的经济繁荣景象。

当那些闪闪发光的摩天大楼，时尚的购物中心，高级公寓大楼越盖越高，房地产的价格也随之不断翻涨。

据官方媒体的报道，在过去的十年间，中国城市的房地产价格以已经至少涨了5倍。

但是，在最近几个月，房地产业正经历着从繁荣到落寞。这是因为，房地产价格正开始回落，房地产交易量也极度锐减。中国很多地区的房地产商已经开始降价，有些新开盘项目甚至可以降到原价的三分之一。

游戏规则

有时候，这导致了业主们对于买主提出的大的折扣的抗议。

一些分析师，例如摩根大通认为，在未来的12到18个月了，在中国的大城市里，房地产市场将减少20%交易量。

根据官方媒体报道，在2000年，北京的二手房买卖只有1000套。相反，去年，北京的二手房交易以超过200，000套. 随着房价的增长，房产一直被其他的投资渠道不多的中国投资者看做是最安全的投资渠道。2008年全球金融危机之后，借贷危机进一步推动房地产价格上涨。

自去年，中国政府采取了一系列措施用以缓解房地产市场增长过快，例如限购，增加首付比率等。这些都是为了是房价降低。这些措施有了一定作用。

不必恐慌

但是，一位驻北京的经济学家帕特里克·霍瓦内克，担心房地产行业的衰退将影响到其他的行业。

“对于的中国经济，房地产价格支撑几乎所有的贷款, ”帕特里克·霍瓦内克说。

“在过去的几年，中国经济的驱动一直是通过借贷。

就像美国和欧洲,与房地产市场相关的一些企业的发展衰落已经远远超出房地产业以及房地产业在经济中所占比例。

房价并不仅仅关系到经济,更关系到自信。”

中国房地产价格过高，已经没什么意义

对数以百万的中国人来说，拥有一套自己的住房，使自己住的更舒适，已经成为一种成功的象征。

那些没有房子的人期待着房价下降，那样他们就能有机会登上这房地产的阶梯。装修房屋、选购家居产品，瑞典的宜家家居公司北京分店是中产阶级常去的地方。

选购家居产品之外，人们关切房价下滑。“中国的房地产充满着泡沫，”一位30岁的顾客，梁晓宇说。

房价下滑是好的，但是如果房地产行业衰退太多，将引起中国的经济很多问题。

也许还不至于对此恐慌，但对房地产行业的衰退应该引起关注。

中国这个世界第二大经济体的基础也许并不像很多人想想的那样牢固。

引用我爱我家（中国最大的不动产中介之一）副总裁胡志辉的一句话：中国的房地产价格过高，已经完全失去任何意义。

我们看到投资者正放弃私人住宅市场转而投资商业房市场。小的房地产开发商正面临倒闭。胡志辉说。

房地产市场仍旧是中国投资者的主要投资市场，但是游戏的规则已经改变。

在实行中国住宅私有化之后，中国房地产市场已经发展了十年。

You only have to look at the Beijing sky-line to realise how key construction has been to China's boom.

As the gleaming skyscrapers, the fancy shopping malls, the towering apartment blocks have all gone up, property prices have risen with them.
They have increased at least fivefold in the last decade in cities across China, according to state media.
But in recent months, those in the property sector have gone from giddy to gloomy.
That is because property prices are beginning to fall and sales are down sharply.
Property developers are slashing prices by as much as a third in some new projects across the country.
Rules of the game
In some cases, this has led to protests from people who bought apartments only to see new buyers offered hefty discounts.
Some analysts, such as JP Morgan, believe the property market could drop by as much as 20% in the country's major cities within the next 12 to 18 months.

According to state media, there were only 1,000 sales of second-hand homes in Beijing in 2000. In contrast, there were over 200,000 sales last year.
With rising prices, property was always seen as a safe bet for many Chinese investors with few other places to put their money.
A lending boom following the global financial crisis in 2008 pushed prices up further.
Since last year, however, the authorities have taken measures to cool down the market such as restricting the number of properties individuals can buy and increasing the minimum down payment required on investments.
Part of the reason was to make housing more affordable. These measures are now biting.
No panic yet
But Patrick Chovanec - an economist based in Beijing - warns that the downturn could extend far beyond the property market.
"Property prices underpin almost all the lending that takes place in the Chinese economy," he said.
"China's economy has been driven in the last few years by lending.
"Just like the US and Europe, the ramifications of a housing market rising and falling extends far beyond construction and that proportion of the economy."
But property prices are not just about economics, they are also about confidence.

China's property prices are so high that they no longer make sense”

For millions of Chinese, owning their home has become a symbol of success, that their lives are getting better.
Those without homes will welcome the drop as it may offer them a chance to get on the property ladder.
The Beijing branch of Swedish furniture giant Ikea is where many middle-class Chinese come to furnish their homes.
Outside the store, some expressed concern over falling prices.
"The property market is full of bubbles," said Liang Xiaoyu, 30, one of the customers.
"A drop in prices will probably be healthy. But if the market declines too much, it could cause problems for the economy."
There may not be outright panic yet but there is concern.
The worry is that the foundations of the world's second-largest economy may not be as firm as many thought.

End Quote Hu Jinhui vice-president, 5i5j group

"China's property prices are so high that they no longer make sense," says Hu Jinhui, vice president of 5i5j group, one of the country's largest real estate agencies.

"We're seeing investors move out of the private property sector to the commercial sector or overseas property market. Smaller developers face becoming bankrupt," he said.
"The property sector will remain a major sector in Chinese investment but the rules of the game have changed."
China's property market took off a decade ago after the authorities privatised much of the country's housing stock.

yasmina

投资商铺吧:D

yasmina

生活在于经历，而不在于平米；
富裕在于感悟，而不在于别墅

:P

唯中国至上

yasmina 发表于 2012-1-4 19:59
生活在于经历，而不在于平米；
富裕在于感悟，而不在于别墅

我无意跟你唱反调，只是想起一段对话：

究竟有钱才有尊严，还是有学问有尊严？

答案是：有钱会有尊严，有学问也会有尊严，但都抵不上“既有钱又有学问”来的有尊严。

yasmina

恩 同意你的观点
当还没钱的时候 有个好心态吧:P

xjq63

生活在于经历，而不在于平米；
富裕在于感悟，而不在于别墅

lilyma06

请注意发帖格式，原文呢？

yasmina

知道了。
感谢帮忙完善

路过不留下

我家最近又买了套，应该没问题吧，因为我们不是大城市。反正没看到降价。另外我们不是炒房，我们是把房子当银行用

海无宁波

第一要解决人民币贬值的问题，（很多人为了手里的钱不贬值购买房产）
然后才是房地产价格过高的问题。