【华尔街日报0108】大陆对即将到来的台湾大选担忧

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China Looms Over Coming Taiwan Electionhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203436904577148622980503132.html?mod=googlenews_wsj


By PAUL MOZUR                And JENNY W. HSU            TAIPEI—Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's policy of economic opening to China has frustrated a key constituency: struggling middle and low-income workers, who could cost him elections this week. That outcome would alarm Beijing and heighten uncertainty in an area that has long been a flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.
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                                                                                Agence France-Presse/Getty Images               

Taiwan's main opposition Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen, center left, waves at her supporters during a rally in Taipei on Sunday.

            


In the capital Taipei, tens of thousands of supporters of the ruling Kuomintang on Sunday marched across town from the business district to the presidential office at the start of formal campaigning for Saturday's vote for president. To cheering supporters, Mr. Ma said: "Taiwan needs a president who can deal with conflicts, handle cross-Strait relations, steer through an economic crisis, and take care of the disadvantaged." Better ties with China, he insisted, "offer a plethora of opportunities."
A few blocks away, Mr. Ma's opponent, Tsai Ing-wen, the chairwoman of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, stumped at an event that featured a local rap band and rock musicians. After clawing her way through throngs of supporters to a stage, Ms. Tsai assailed Mr. Ma, who she said had "never listened to the people's will."
Mr. Ma and Ms. Tsai have been running neck-and-neck in election polls. Analysts say a third candidate, James Soong, could tip the result toward Ms. Tsai by taking votes from Mr. Ma.
When he signed a landmark trade and investment deal with China in June 2010, Mr. Ma promised that it would create jobs and spur growth by attracting Chinese investment and tourists, and by opening new opportunities in China for the island's technology companies, banks, insurance firms and shippers.
Instead, unemployment remains high by Taiwan standards, wages have stagnated and the economy is set to slow. The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, which Mr. Ma intended as his political triumph and historical legacy, is now also an electoral liability.
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                                                                                Agence France-Presse/Getty Images               

Supporters of Taiwan's main opposition Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen chant slogans and wave flags during a rally in Taipei on Sunday. President Ma Ying-jeou has overseen the most dramatic improvement in relations with China in the island's history, but economic anxieties could dash his re-election hopes in the presidential vote on Jan. 14.

            


Taiwan's export-led economy has been hit hard by economic turmoil in the U.S. and Europe. But the China deal has been slow to produce concrete results. A record 1.6 million Chinese tourists visited last year, although mostly in tour groups that negotiate low prices with designated local hotels and restaurants.
Meanwhile, trade with China, including Hong Kong, is slowing sharply. After growing by 37% in 2010, the rate of expansion fell to 9.1% in the first 11 months of last year. Chinese investment has been negligible.
Political analysts say Mr. Ma's prospects also have been damaged by a slight, but politically significant, widening of the wealth gap. A perception is building among low-wage workers that trade with China has disproportionately benefited the rich. Their anger is fueled by soaring property prices in Taipei and other major cities.
Ms. Tsai has cashed in on the disappointment. She has promised more jobs for low-income workers, low-cost housing, and improved education. Her campaign has struck a chord, giving it a chance to pull off an upset in only the fifth democratic election in the island's history. That would be a remarkable turnaround for a party that during the previous election was mired in a corruption scandal involving former DPP President Chen Shui-bian. Mr. Chen is currently serving a 17½-year jail sentence.
Wu Kuo-ming, 35 years old, typifies the unhappiness toward Mr. Ma. Four years ago, he voted for Mr. Ma after growing tired of Taiwan's wilting competitiveness under then-President Chen. But he has changed his mind as housing prices in Taipei make it impossible for him to live in an area with good schools for his daughter. "The only way I can afford a decent home in Taipei is if I rob a few banks or if I hit the lottery jackpot," he said.
Besides, Mr. Wu said, "Beijing has not become any friendlier. In fact, I think Beijing has only gotten worse because it has a high-and-mighty attitude that Taiwan owes everything to China and without their mercy, Taiwan will flop overnight." He adds: "Tsai has my vote because Beijing needs to know that Taiwanese people can't be bought."
While many in Taiwan realize that China is key to the island's economic future, Taiwanese are distrustful of their neighbor and few support any political integration with China, which continues to consider Taiwan a renegade province.
Both Beijing and Washington have welcomed steps by Mr. Ma to warm cross-strait ties. The U.S. sees the rapprochement as defusing a regional problem that holds the potential to bring the U.S. and China into military conflict. Although the U.S. has officially taken no sides in the election, its recent decision to make Taiwan a candidate for visa-free travel and a visit by Deputy Secretary of Energy Dan Poneman are widely read in Taiwan as tacit support for Mr. Ma.
Mr. Ma faces suspicions among some voters that he will take steps to formally align Taiwan with China and reduce its prized de facto independence. Ms. Tsai has struck a moderate tone on China, but nevertheless has been hampered by concern that intense Chinese distrust of the DPP may make it difficult for her to nurture economic ties with China that are so important for Taiwan's economic security.
                Chen Chao-chien, a professor of public relations at Ming Chuan University, said Beijing's response to a victory by Ms. Tsai would depend on the margin. "Beijing will be dismayed and could slow down cross-strait talks for a few months. But it could also offer more economic sweeteners to test the DPP's bottom line," he said.
Mr. Ma argues that Taiwan's current economic situation would be far worse without the trade deals with China. His campaign has focused on his achievements in boosting Taiwan's international profile after decades of diplomatic setbacks as China sought to isolate the island.
He points to his visa waiver agreements with 156 countries, among them Australia and the European Union. He has also vowed to finish a third terminal at Taiwan's Taoyuan Airport and shorten the national workweek to 40 hours from the current 48 hours.
Still, the wealth gap has increased. In 2009, it hit a record when the richest 20% of the population earned 6.34 times more on average than the poorest 20%. That is up from a multiple of about six before Mr. Ma came to power. Unemployment is stuck above 4%, an enviable level for much of the world, but a disappointing one in the context of Mr. Ma's promise to keep it below 3%, along with Taiwan's 10.88% growth rate in 2010. Wage growth also has been flat under Mr. Ma.
Economic growth is officially forecast to slow to 4.38% in 2012 from an estimated 4.56% in 2011.



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