【彭博社0108】中国股市无统一意见

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No Consensus on China Stocks After Plunge                                                                          Q
                              By                    Bloomberg News                 -                                Jan 9, 2012 12:01 AM GMT+0800                          
                                                          http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-08/no-consensus-on-china-stocks-after-plunge-with-guotai-forecasting-36-gain.html
  
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Investors monitor prices and trade stocks at a securities exchange hall in Shanghai. Chinese stocks will “struggle” this year as national economic growth exceeding 9 percent and inflation at 4 percent won’t warrant an “aggressive” easing, an equity strategist said. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

                  
                                                                                             
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     Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Geoff Lewis, head of investment services at JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong, talks about the outlook for Europe's debt crisis, its implications for Asian stock markets and his investment strategy.     Lewis speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)

                  
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                            Even after a two-year bear marketwiped 33 percent from China’s benchmark stock index (SHCOMP), there’s noconsensus on the direction in equity prices this year among thenation’s biggest and most accurate brokerage firms.
The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) will gain 36 percent becauseslowing inflation will let policy makers cut interest rates andbank reserves, according to Zhang Han, a strategist at GuotaiJunan Securities Co., the only major brokerage to foresee theslump. China International Capital Corp., led by the son of aformer premier, forecasts a “slight” drop since the economyisn’t slowing enough to permit “aggressive” reductions inborrowing costs, said Hao Hong, CICC’s global equity strategist.
While China avoided the global recession in 2009 and isgrowing more than twice as fast as the world economy, the indexhas been the worst among the 10 biggest markets in the past twoyears, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The central bankboosted rates and reserve requirements to curb property pricesand inflation that reached a three-year high in July. PremierWen Jiabao said on Jan. 3 that business conditions may be“relatively difficult” this quarter and monetary policy willbe adjusted.
“Liquidity will improve as a result of the government’seasing policies,” Zhang said in a telephone interview fromShanghai on Dec. 21. “That’ll help stocks to rebound in thefirst quarter.”
Earnings Growth Zhang forecasts the Shanghai Composite, which tracks mostlyyuan-denominated A shares, will rise to 3,000 this year from2,199.42 at the end of 2011. Overseas fund managers need to beapproved as qualified institutional investors to buy A shares.
Corporate earnings may rise 10 percent this year, Zhangsaid. Profit growth in the MSCI BRIC Index (MXBRIC) of the four largestemerging markets will slow to 5 percent from 19 percent lastyear, according to more than 12,000 analyst estimates compiledby Bloomberg as of Dec. 28.
The Shanghai Composite fell 1.6 in the first week oftrading in 2012, compared to gains of more than 2 percent forgauges in Brazil, Russia and India, the other BRIC nations.
HIT Shouchuang Technology Co., a department-store ownerbased in Ningbo city, was the Chinese index’s best-performing (SHCOMP)stock last week with a 12 percent gain. Markor InternationalFurniture Co., a furniture maker located in the western city ofUrumqi, tumbled 21 percent for the worst performance.
The largest advance in the Shanghai Composite last year wasa 195 percent surge by Shanghai-based China Fortune LandDevelopment Co. Irico Display Devices Co., a manufacturer oftelevision picture tubes based in Shaanxi province, sank 66percent, the biggest decline of 2011.
Record Low The Shanghai gauge traded at a record low (SHCOMP) 8.7 timesestimated profit on Jan. 5, compared with a ratio of 9.2 forBrazil’s Bovespa Index, 5.4 for Russia’s Micex Index and 13.8for India’s BSE India Sensitive Index, according to datacompiled by Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which coined the term BRIC adecade ago, said in a Dec. 7 report that economic growth for thelargest emerging nations may have peaked because of a smallersupply of new workers.
Chinese stocks will “struggle” this year as nationaleconomic growth (CNGDPYOY) exceeding 9 percent and inflation at 4 percentwon’t warrant an “aggressive” easing, CICC’s Hong wrote in aDec. 16 e-mail. Equities may plunge in the first half beforerecouping losses later in the year, the strategist said, withoutgiving an index target because of company policy.
Slowdown, Volatility “The theme is slowdown and volatility,” said Hong, whofavors utility, energy, telecommunications and consumer-staplecompanies. “It would be hasty to make a move now.”
Beijing-based China Shenhua Energy Co. (601088), the nation’sbiggest coal producer, trades for 9.4 times estimated profit,data compiled by Bloomberg show. Shanghai-based China UnitedNetwork Communications Ltd. (600050), the best-performingtelecommunications stock in the CSI 300 Index last year, isvalued at 18.9 times.
Hong isn’t in the majority in the brokerage industry.Twelve of 13 firms surveyed by Bloomberg forecast Chinese stockswill rise this year. The nation’s equities haven’t posted threestraight years of declines since the Shanghai Stock Exchangeopened in 1990.
China will boost domestic consumption to offset an exportslowdown and allow for faster gains in the yuan to tameinflation, Mark Mobius, who helps oversee about $40 billion asexecutive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, said inan e-mail on Dec. 14.
Fastest Growth “The Chinese leadership has the organizational skills andpolicies capable of ensuring that China continues to achieve thehighest gross domestic product growth of any major country inthe world,” Mobius said. He favors consumer stocks (SHCOMP) because theywill benefit most from rising Chinese incomes.
Kweichow Moutai Co. (600519), the country’s largest maker of baijiuliquor, is valued at 17.9 times profit. Net income for thecompany, based in Guizhou province, is expected to rise 37percent in 2012, according to analyst estimates compiled byBloomberg.
China’s economy has expanded at an average pace of 10.3percent annually over the last decade, data compiled byBloomberg show. Growth slowed to 9.1 percent in the three monthsended Sept. 30 from 9.5 percent in the previous quarter asshipments to Europe, China’s biggest export market, slumped.While manufacturing contracted in November for the first timesince February 2009, it expanded last month, according to ChinaFederation of Logistics and Purchasing data.
Slowing Inflation UBS AG cut its prediction on Nov. 29 for growth in 2012 to8 percent from 8.3 percent, while Citigroup Inc. reduced itsforecast to 8.4 percent from 8.7 percent. Average economicgrowth in the BRIC nations will slow to 6.1 percent this yearfrom a high of 9.7 percent in 2007, according to Septemberestimates by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF estimatesglobal production will expand 4 percent.
Guotai’s Zhang said China’s economy will “bottom out” bythe second quarter and easing inflation will allow the centralbank to reduce interest rates for the first time since 2008.Chinese consumer-price growth jumped to a three-year high of 6.5percent in July before slowing to 4.2 percent in November, closeto the government’s full-year target of 4 percent.
The People’s Bank of China cut banks’ reserve-requirementratios from a record high for the first time in three years onNov. 30. The central bank may lower the ratios as much as fourtimes this year to encourage lending to small companies hurt bya credit squeeze, Zhang said. He recommends shares of propertydevelopers, brokerages and chemical producers.
Property Curbs Shenzhen-based China Vanke Co. (000002) and Guangzhou-based PolyReal Estate Group Co. are the nation’s largest publicly tradedproperty companies. Vanke and Poly Real trade at record-lowvaluations of 6.5 times and 6.6 times estimated profitrespectively, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The companies’ valuations have declined the past two yearsas the government introduced limits on owning property to coolsurging prices. China’s home prices fell for a fourth month inDecember, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd., the nation’sbiggest real estate website. The decelerating economy may spurthe government to relax enforcement on property restrictions bythe second quarter, Andy Rothman, a China macro strategist atCLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, said in a Dec. 22 interview.
Brokerages underestimated inflation last year, leading tooverly optimistic predictions for stocks, according to Hao Kang,a Beijing-based fund manager at ICBC Credit Suisse AssetManagement Co., which oversees about $8.3 billion.
Debt Crisis A sustained rebound for Chinese equities will depend onwhether Europe can contain its sovereign debt crisis, CICC’sHong said. China’s exports to the European Union rose 5 percentin November, a quarter of the pace reported in July and August,according to customs data on Dec. 10. The region accounts for 18percent of Chinese exports, according to Shanghai-based Shenyin& Wanguo Securities Co.
Premier Wen said China faced “problems of weakeningexternal demand” in his Jan. 3 statement. China will maintain a“prudent” monetary policy and a “proactive” fiscal policythis year, the official Xinhua news agency reported Dec. 10.
Nomura Holdings Inc. forecasts Shanghai’s A shares willrebound between 15 percent and 20 percent in 2012 aftervaluations dropped to the cheapest in Asia, Michael Kurtz, chiefAsian equity strategist, said at a Dec. 19 press conference inBeijing. The brokerage favors Chinese financial, energy andmaterial companies.
Chinese Banks Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601398), the nation’sbiggest lender, and Bank of Communications Ltd., the country’sfifth largest, trade at 6.2 times and 4.9 times estimatedearnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compareswith 8.4 times for financial companies in the MSCI EmergingMarkets Index.
The Chinese banks may report annual net income increases ofat least 19 percent in 2012, analyst estimates (601328) compiled byBloomberg show.
“We remain positive on Chinese equities,” saidTempleton’s Mobius. “China is one of the fastest growing majoreconomies in the world and is expected to play a major role inthe global economy.”
Major Brokerages’ Forecasts for Chinese Stocks in 2012----------------------------------------------------------Brokerage             Index                          TargetCICC                  Shanghai Composite               noneCitic Securities      Shanghai Composite             *2,800Shenyin & Wanguo      Shanghai Composite              3,000Guotai Junan          Shanghai Composite              3,000Galaxy Securities     Shanghai Composite              3,100GF Securities         Shanghai Composite              3,100Sinolink Securities   Shanghai Composite              3,200BNP Paribas           Shanghai Composite        20-25% GainUBS                   Shanghai Composite     Up to 30% GainCitigroup             Shanghai A-Share Index  **2,400-2,800Credit Suisse         Shanghai A-Share Index          2,900Nomura                Shanghai A-Share Index    15-20% GainGoldman Sachs         CSI 300 Index                   3,200----------------------------------------------------------*Citic’s prediction is for the first quarter.**Citigroup sees A share-index trading in range and may reach ashigh as 3,200


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