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本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-3-31 16:28 编辑
【原帖地址】：http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-davos-iran-oiltre80q0oa-20120127,0,6719156.story
【原文标题】：Oil industry sees China winning, West losing from Iran sanctions
【译者】MacTavish_Tang
【翻译方式】人工
【译文】：
伊朗驻德国柏林大使馆前的国旗。
随着欧盟准备对伊朗实施石油禁运以及美国对伊朗国有银行实施制裁，西方石油政策的主管者和制定者们声称：由于中国和俄罗斯反对加入对伊朗的全面制裁，中俄可能会是西方制裁伊朗石油的最大赢家。而西方的石油企业和消费者则因此可能成为最大的输家。
尽管面临制裁，伊朗的石油生产量并未有所改变，即每天生产260万桶原油，占全球每日石油产量的3%左右。专家分析，制裁前伊朗每天运往欧洲的60万桶石油，而制裁后伊朗生产的绝大部分石油将流向中国。此外，作为伊朗仅存的较为稳定的主要客户，中国将会借机与伊朗进行谈判从而降低进口石油的价格。
欧盟对伊朗的石油禁运措施将从7月起生效，美国则计划制裁伊朗的中央银行，并有可能制裁伊朗的船运公司。欧洲的石油巨头，如法国道达尔公司和荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司，或已经停止购买伊朗的石油，或正在计划中。
此外，日本和南朝鲜方面发出信号，作为美国对伊朗核计划施压而制定的制裁措施的呼应，他们将减少对伊石油进口。
对伊朗的石油禁运导致了越来越多的买家为选择其他供油国而竞争。在这种情况下，参与禁运的国家的目光都聚焦了在世界上最大的石油出口国和唯一可以在短期内迅速增加石油产量的国家——沙特阿拉伯，号称欧佩克阀门的沙特阿拉伯的作用举足轻重，它可以帮助西方避免油价因禁运而变得过高从而导致一场严重的经济危机。
国际货币基金组织于本周指出，如果伊朗以完全停止石油出口作为报复，那么原油价格可能上涨百分之20～30。正在参加达沃斯年会的石油企业的高管们认为，能源市场可以承受失去源自伊朗的1.3万桶石油——这大约相当于在2011年利比亚内战期间失去的石油供应量。高管们对沙特阿拉伯接手伊朗的空缺充满信心。
一位不愿透露姓名的沙特消息人士告诉路透社：“我们认为，产油国是可替代的。伊朗的石油仍会有一定的市场，比如以较低的价格面向亚洲市场，或者说中国市场。即使参与禁运的国家失去了来自伊朗的50%的石油，我们（沙特阿拉伯）有信心，有能力填补这一漏洞，正如利比亚内战期间我们所展示的那样。”
在过去的几个月，沙特阿拉伯已经收到来自欧盟，日本和南朝鲜的多份请求，要求增加石油产量。在伊朗出口的石油中，约1/3为欧盟和土耳其购买，剩下的2/3则分别流向中国，日本，南朝鲜，印度和南非。
日本昭和壳牌石油公司的首脑Jun Arai告知路透社，称：“我们与沙特方面举行了会谈，讨论了关于增加石油产量的问题，对此，Saudi Aramco（沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司的长官）持乐观态度。”
俄罗斯也可以从对伊朗的石油禁运中获益。这个世界最大的石油生产国已准备就绪，希望借机提高其在欧洲的市场份额，但这也引起了一些欧洲人的疑虑，担心日后会过于依靠俄罗斯的石油和天然气。在过去的几年中，俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的货款纠纷曾威胁到了欧洲的天然气供应。
巴西石油公司的行政总裁José Sergio Gabrielli表示：“莫斯科方面必然对现况抱着十分大的兴趣”。克里姆林宫的高级经济问题助手Arkady Dvorkovich同意将从石油禁运中受益的说法，据他估计，俄罗斯受益的保证是至少将油价维持在目前的每桶100美元左右。
根据一项协议，昭和壳牌石油公司每天从伊朗购进下10万桶石油至今年3月，协议期满后，如未经授予豁免权而继续与伊朗央行来往，昭和壳牌石油公司将像其他公司将受到美国的制裁。对此，Arai说：“我们将会根据政府的指令行事。”
对于道达尔公司而言，指令已经越来越清晰了，因为法国总统萨科齐就是此次严厉制裁的主要发起者之一。道达尔公司的长官Christopher de Margerie声称：“我们已经停止从伊朗方面购买石油。”该公司停止从伊朗购买每天80,000-100,000万桶的石油。
荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司的行政总裁Peter Voser说，他的公司可能需要一段时间才能暂停同伊朗的采购合同，市场消息估计约每天10万桶。他同时表示：“我们是一家欧洲公司，因此我们必然会受到制裁措施的影响，即便如此我们仍然有义务遵守制裁措施。我会就制裁的细节进行研究，来确定事态的发展。”
除了道达尔和荷兰皇家壳牌外，伊朗在欧洲最大的买家分别来自意大利，西班牙和希腊的公司。
迄今为止，中国并未增购伊朗的原油，但在业界和外交官之间的看法是，作为世界第二大石油消费国，中国将很难抵制以低廉的价格购买伊朗石油的诱惑。
De Margerie认为：“伊朗将会寻求其他市场，它可能会对潜在买家给出更优惠的价格，但这对解除禁运无济于事。”
美国副国务卿Robert Hormats并未就制裁会降低伊朗的石油出口作出明确表态，但是他预测，此番的制裁会使伊朗本就孱弱的经济雪上加霜。他说：“虽然你不能预测伊朗将会有何反制措施，以及伊朗会把他们的石油价格压多低。但是，这次的制裁必定会给伊朗的经济造成越来越多的困难。”他同时指出，中国对伊朗问题能够有一个富有建设性的成果很有兴趣。
Robert Hormats还声称：“没人会支持伊朗继续进行其核计划。”但伊朗方面坚称其核计划是用于和平目的的，诸如核电与医疗设备方面。
此外，Robert Hormats透露，为了使制裁的影响最大化，美国将“选择性”和“负责任”的申请豁免；并且，美国政府将向国会谈论延长制裁伊朗的运输船队，虽然讨论尚处于早期阶段。
【附】：
受伊朗石油禁运影响最大的几个国家（按照从伊朗进口原油占本国总进口量比例排列）：
斯里兰卡： 80%
土耳其：50%
希腊： 34.2%
南非：25%
西班牙： 14.9%
意大利： 12.4%
韩国： 10%
印度： 9%
日本：7%
中国： 6%
====================================================================================
【原文】：
DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - As the European Union prepares to ban Iranian oil and the United States turns the screw on payments, oil executives and policymakers say China and Russia stand to gain the most and Western oil firms and consumers may emerge the biggest losers.
Iran will continue to sell much the same volume of oil - 2.6 million barrels per day or around 3 percent of world supply - but almost all of it will flow to China, they reason. And being pretty much Iran's only remaining customer, Beijing will be able to negotiate a much reduced price.
The EU will ban Iranian oil from July. The United States plans sanctions on Iran's central bank and possibly its shipping firm. European headquartered oil firms such as France's Total and Royal Dutch Shell have already abandoned Iranian oil purchases or are in the process of doing so.
Japan and South Korea have signaled they may reduce purchases of Iranian oil to comply with U.S. sanctions designed to put pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program.
That leaves a growing number of buyers competing for alternative supplies. Inevitably attention has turned to Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter and the only country that can quickly increase oil output and help the West avoid a price spike that would deal a severe economic blow.
The IMF said this week that crude oil prices could rise 20 to 30 percent if Iran were to retaliate by halting its oil exports altogether. Oil industry executives meeting in Davos said energy markets can afford to lose half of Iran's 2.6 million barrels per day. That would be roughly equivalent to supplies lost during Libya's civil war in 2011. They are confident Saudi Arabia will fill the gap.
"What we say is that oil is fungible. Iranian oil will still find its way into the market, to Asian markets, China and possibly at a lower price," a top Saudi source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
"But if let's say 50 percent of Iranian oil is lost, we have spare capacity, we have the capacity to replace it as Libya has shown," he added.
The chief of Saudi state oil monopoly Saudi Aramco, Khalid al-Falih, moved from one bilateral meeting to the next during the World Economic Forum this week. Over the past month or so the kingdom has received requests for additional oil from the European Union, Japan and South Korea. The European Union and Turkey buy almost a third of Iranian oil exports with the rest going to China, Japan, South Korea, India and South Africa.
"As a regular conversation we talked about increased supplies. Saudi Aramco is always positive," Jun Arai, the head of Japan's Showa Shell, told Reuters.
Russia too stands to gain from Western sanctions on Iran. The world's biggest oil producer is well positioned to raise its market share in Europe, despite misgivings among some Europeans about relying too heavily on Russia for oil and gas. Payment disputes between Russia and neighboring Ukraine have in the past threatened transit gas supplies to Europe.
"I'm sure Moscow is watching the situation with big interest," said José Sergio Gabrielli, chief executive of Brazil's Petrobras. Arkady Dvorkovich, the Kremlin's top economic aide, concurred that Russia stood to benefit from sanctions that were guaranteed to keep oil prices at least at current levels around $100 a barrel by his reckoning.
Showa Shell buys 100,000 barrels per day from Iran under a deal that expires in March and like other firms would be exposed to U.S. sanctions if not given a waiver under the latest ban on dealing with Iran's central bank. "We are waiting for guidance from the government," said Arai.
For Total the guidance has been clearer. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been one of the main advocates of tough sanctions. "We have already stopped (buying from Iran)," said Total's chief Christopher de Margerie. The firm was previously lifting 80,000-100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Iran.
Peter Voser, chief executive at Royal Dutch Shell, said his company might take some time before suspending purchases, which market sources estimate at 100,000 barrels per day.
"We are a European company and therefore we are affected by the sanctions and we will obviously oblige and implement the sanctions. I need to study all the details in order to see how it goes forward," he said.
Apart from Total and Shell, Europe's biggest buyers of Iranian oil are Italian, Spanish and Greek companies.
CHEAP OIL
China has so far refrained from buying more Iranian crude but the perception in the industry and among diplomats is that the world's No.2 oil consumer will find it hard to resist buying unsold Iranian oil at a knockdown price.
"I think (the Iranian) oil will go somewhere else ... Iran may give a discount to make it easier and quicker but nothing will change," said De Margerie.
Robert Hormats, U.S. under secretary for economy, energy and agriculture, could not say with certainty that sanctions would reduce Iran's oil exports but he predicted more pain for the Iranian economy.
"You cannot predict what they (Iran) will do and how much they will discount their oil. But it will certainly cause more and more discomfort to the Iranian economy," he said, adding that China too had an interest in a 'constructive outcome'.
"No one has an interest in Iran continuing its non-peaceful nuclear program," he said. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes - electricity generation and medical equipment.
To maximize the impact of the sanctions, the U.S. will apply waivers very "selectively" and "responsibly," Hormats said. In addition, the U.S. administration is talking to Congress about extending sanctions to Iran's shipping fleet although the discussion is at an early stage, he added.
(Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by Janet McBride)
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发表于 2012-1-29 14:47
