【路透社 0110】中国的贸易顺差减少，但不平衡依然存在

银河WT

Analysis: China's trade surplus fades but imbalances persist
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/10/us-economy-global-idUSTRE8091U520120110

By Alan Wheatley, Global Economics Correspondent

(Reuters) - One of the biggest imbalancesin the global economy could soon be a thing of the past: China's super-sizedtrade surplus is melting away.

Butdon't get too excited.
（路透社）  在全球经济中的最大不平衡的一个可能很快就会过去： 中国巨大的的贸易顺差在消失 。
但不要太激动。
Inlight of the "savings glut" theory that China's export of its excesssavings helped to drive down interest rates in the West and fuelover-consumption, especially in the United States, the fast-falling surplusshould help to put the world economy on a steadier footing.
"This supports our view that globalrebalancing is occurring amid weakening developed market growth and robustChinese demand," economists at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong said in areport.
Theywere commenting on figures released on Tuesday showing that the surplus shrankto $155 billion last year from $183 billion in 2010.
As ashare of gross domestic product, the surplus shriveled to 2.1 percent in 2011from 3.1 percent in 2010 and a high of 7.3 percent in 2007.
鉴于”储蓄过剩”理论中国出口的过剩储蓄有助于降低西方的利率和燃料过度消费，尤其是在美国，速降的顺差将帮助全球经济到一个稳定的基础上。

巴克莱资本驻香港经济学家在一份报告中说，“这支持了我们的观点全球经济再平衡发生于发达市场增长疲弱而中国市场需求强劲，”

他们评论周二发布的数据显示剩余下降从1830亿年的2010美元到去年的1550亿美元。

作为国内生产总值的一部分，顺差在萎缩  ，从2007 年的 7.3%的高点到2010 年的 3.1 %再到2011 年的2.1%。

For2012, Jacqueline Rong at BNP Paribas in Beijing expects the surplus to dropfurther to 1.2 percent of GDP. In dollar terms, Daiwa Securities has penciledin a surplus this year of $118 billion and Mizuho is forecasting $113 billion.
TingLu at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong reckons the 2012 surplus couldbe as low as $41 billion -- a rounding error next to the record high of $296billion in 2008 that triggered demands from Washington that Beijing let theyuan rise faster or risk the wrath of Congress.
Indeed, some economists believe China's tradewill be in the red before too long. If that sounds implausible, Japan last yearis likely to have chalked up its first trade deficit since 1963, according toJP Morgan.
2012 年，法国巴黎银行的杰奎琳.荣在北京预计顺差将降至占 GDP 的 1.2%，以美元计的话，大和证券预计今年 为1180 亿元瑞穗预测 为1130 亿美元。
美国美林证券在香港银行的卢婷估计 2012年盈余可能低至 410 亿美元 — —北京 2008 年 2960 亿元的估计错误使华盛顿要求北京让人民币更快升值或冒激怒国会的风险。
事实上，一些经济学家认为，中国的贸易不久将亏损。如果这听起来令人难以置信，日本去年自 1963 年以来第一次的出现贸易逆差——JP 摩根。
MIXED BAG
MarkWilliams with London consultancy Capital Economics said it was positive forglobal rebalancing that China, with its declining surplus, was a source of netdemand for the rest of the world.
But hefretted that the 24.9 percent increase in Chinese imports last year had beengeared to ramping up already-strong investment, raising the question of who wouldbuy the extra goods to be churned out by newly built factories.
Short of anunlikely boom in domestic consumption, Williams said he feared one of twounpleasant outcomes.
"Oneoption is that China does everything it can to gain market share. So it slowsthe appreciation of the renminbi and continues to offer very cheap credit toChinese firms to enable them to undercut foreign producers, and so on. Thatroute leads to protectionism," he said.
"The alternative is that China accepts that itneeds to go through a pretty wrenching process of structural adjustments whichwill involve a lot of companies going bankrupt," he added.
Uri Dadush,an economist with the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, said he was lessconcerned about ballooning factory capacity.
参半
威廉斯资本经济与伦敦顾问说,这是中国积极为全球平衡,减少盈余, 对世界上的其他国家说是一个纯粹的需求的来源。
但他担心中国去年进口总量的 24.9%升幅加大已经很强烈的投资，引出的问题是谁会购买那些由新工厂辛苦做出的额外商品。
缺乏的国内消费不太可能激增，威廉姆斯说他担心这两个令人不愉快的结果之一。
“一个选项是,中国做的每件事都是可以获得市场份额。所以它减缓人民币升值,并继续提供了低息贷款给中国公司,让他们削弱外国生产商,等等。这条路通向保护主义,”他说。
“另一种办法是,中国接受,它需要经历一个相当痛苦的过程中,结构调整涉及到很多的公司要破产了,”他补充说。
Ur Dadush，在华盛顿，卡内基的经济学家说，他不太关心不断膨胀工厂生产能力。
"A lot of the investmentin China is going into infrastructure and building a domestic service economy.It isn't all going into exportables and manufactures by any stretch of theimagination," Dadush, a former World Bank official, said.
Moreover,the dwindling of China's surplus should serve to put the spotlight on countrieswith truly "outlandish" surpluses -- including Germany, theNetherlands, Switzerland and Sweden.
But Dadushagreed that the Chinese figures were far from unambiguously good news -- evenif they did point to resilient domestic demand.
"Thefact that Chinese exports may not have performed as well as expected in recentmonths is in part a reflection of the very large slowdown we have seen in theUnited States and Europe," Dadush said.
And there'sthe rub: economists see no end to the headwinds that slowed global growth in2011 as Western governments struggle with excessive deficits and debt burdens.
HEAVY DEBTS
JP Morganeconomists calculate that the gross public liabilities of advanced economieshave surged by more than 30 percentage points of GDP since 2006 and now standwell above the level some deem as harmful to growth and debt sustainability.
"很多在中国的投资是走进基础设施，和国内服务经济建设。它并不是都加入商品和想象的制成品，" 前世界银行官员Dadush说。
此外，中国顺差的下降应应给把焦点放在有真正的"奇特"盈余的国家 — — 包括德国、 荷兰、 瑞士、 瑞典。
但Dadush同意中国数字还远没有明确好消息— — 即使他们曾指出国内需求的弹性。
"事实上中国的出口可能不会像所预期的那样好，近几个月某种程度上映射在我们所见的美国和欧洲的长期待减速中"Dadush 说。
问就在这里：经济学家看到无穷的顶头风减缓全球的增速因为西方政府在与过度的赤字和债务负担抗争。
沉重的债务
摩根大通的经济学家计算发达经济体的公共负债总额自 2006 年以来飙升超过 30 个百分点的 GDP，现在站远高于一些认为对增长和债务可持续性有害的水平。
"Despite the widespread fiscal tighteningthat will be taking place through the developed markets, debt as a percent ofGDP will still be on an upward path in the U.S., the euro area, Japan, and theUK," they said in a report.
For matureeconomies as a whole, governments' net lending positions - the budget balance -by the end of this year will still fall 5 percentage points of GDP short ofstabilizing debt as a share of GDP, the bank estimates.
Hence thefierce embrace of austerity and the resulting hit to growth: the central bankof Portugal said on Tuesday that belt-tightening mandated as the price of aninternational bailout would cause the euro zone member's economy to shrink 3.1percent this year.
In short,China's trade surplus may be fading, but only to be displaced by otherimbalances that are the legacy of past excesses and policy mistakes.
"Fiscal consolidation will no doubt weighheavily on economic activity in the developed markets in the coming years, andthus on the global economy as well," JP Morgan said.
"尽管普遍财政紧缩的影响将会发生通过发达市场，债务所占GDP 的比重将仍有上升迹象，在美国、 欧元区、 日本和英国，"他们在报告中说。
成熟经济作为一个整体，各国政府为今年年底的借贷净额-预算平衡-据银行估计仍将下降 5 个百分点的 GDP 不足的稳定债务占GDP的比例。
因此激烈的拥抱紧缩以及由此产生的对全球经济增长产生冲击： 葡萄牙中央银行周二表示，紧缩开支，国际紧急强制价格会导致这一年欧元区成员国的经济收缩3.1%。
简而言之，中国的贸易顺差可能会逐渐消失,但只有被替换为其他的不平衡,这是以往流动性过剩的遗产和政策错误。
“财政整合将毫无疑问地牵动经济活动在发达市场在未来几年里,从而在全球经济中,”摩根说。

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paoding

不平衡源于：中国想买的西方不卖，中国要卖的西方设置阻碍，事实就这么简单。

俺估计，某些人只是想要中国人卖苦力买鸦片或者印第安人用土地买玻璃珠子那样合理的市场秩序。。。。