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China Needs to Change Mideast Foreign Policy: James M. Dorsey
 Illustration by Jordan Awan
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-07/china-needs-to-change-mideast-foreign-policy-commentary-by-james-dorsey.html
By James M. Dorsey Feb 7, 2012 8:10 AM GMT+0800 0 Comments Q
China’s decision to veto acondemnation of Syria’s regime at the United Nations SecurityCouncil is just the latest signal that illustrates the need fora fundamental change in Chinese foreign policy.
The question is no longer whether officials in Beijing willabandon the principle of non-interference in other countries’affairs to protect their expanding interests around the globe.The question is when.
China joined Russia in vetoing last weekend’s resolutionpartly for fear that backing the UN’s rebuke of a government’sbrutal suppression of its people may come back to haunt Chinaitself, given its treatment of Tibetans and of Uighur Muslims inthe Xinjiang autonomous region.
Yet China’s economic growth and associated need to secureresources increasingly have been at odds with this long-standingpolicy of being aloof. That’s especially true in the resource-rich region that stretches from the Atlantic coast of Africa toCentral Asia and the subcontinent, much of which is now inrevolt.
Over the past year, a series of incidents in the regionhave tested China’s non-interference policy, but without seriousdamage to the country’s image. With China’s veto of the UNresolution on Syria, Chinese determination to cling to aprinciple rooted in 19th-century diplomacy seems set tobackfire.
Painted Into Corner Rather than portray China as a global power that seeks goodrelations with all and -- unlike the U.S. -- doesn’t meddle inother countries’ affairs, last weekend’s veto of a relativelytoothless condemnation of the regime in Damascus has paintedChina into a corner. The nation now appears to support aninternational pariah that brutally suppresses its people, astance that risks roiling ties with some of China’s mostimportant energy suppliers in the Arab League, which sponsoredthe defeated UN resolution.
In Libya, China initially avoided its policy dilemma.There, the Chinese abstained from voting on a UN resolution thateffectively authorized international military intervention inLibya on humanitarian grounds. Chinese diplomats then went astep further. They supported a Security Council resolution thatimposed an arms embargo and other sanctions on the regime ofLibyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, and endorsed referral of theregime’s crackdown to the International Criminal Court in theHague.
China cultivated relations with both Qaddafi’s embattledregime and the Benghazi-based rebels. Yet that evenhandedapproach didn’t prevent the rebels from threatening a commercialboycott, particularly after they found documents purporting toshow that Chinese defense companies had discussed the supply ofarms with Qaddafi operatives. A Chinese Ministry of Commercedelegation visited Libya this week in a bid to recover at leastsome of the losses that China, Libya’s biggest foreigncontractor, suffered with the evacuation last year of 35,000workers who were servicing $18.8 billion worth of contracts.
The Arab revolt is certain to force not only a revision ofChina’s policy of non-interference but also of the employmentpractices of Chinese companies. With new and long-standinggovernments in the region desperate to reduce unemployment -- akey driver of the revolts -- authorities in Libya and elsewhereare likely to demand that Chinese construction companies employlocal, rather than imported, labor.
Social Media Criticism Moreover, Chinese authorities have twice in recent dayscome under criticism in the country’s social media for thegovernment’s inability to protect workers abroad after 29Chinese nationals were kidnapped by rebels in Sudan’s volatileSouth Kordofan province, and an additional 25 were abducted byrestive Bedouin tribesmen in Egypt’s Sinai Desert. The criticscharged that as a superpower, China needed to project itseconomic, as well as its military, muscle to stand up for thosewho put their lives at risk for the national good -- much likethe U.S. sent Navy Seals to rescue two hostages in Somalia.
Censors were quick to remove the critical messages fromsocial media because they touched a raw nerve. A policy ofwinning friends economically rather than make enemies by flexingmilitary muscle is increasingly inconsistent with China’sdislike of appearing weak and vulnerable. National pride was atstake. The dilemma sparked public debate, with official mediasaying China needs time to build the necessary militarycapability to intervene when its nationals are in jeopardy,while others argue that China’s inaction may encourage furtherattacks.
The need for a revised approach to the Middle East andNorth Africa, as well as countries such as Pakistan andAfghanistan, will become increasingly clear as China boosts itsinvestment in Central and South Asian nations before thescheduled 2014 withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, whereChina has secured oil and copper rights.
Reports that China is considering establishing militarybases in Pakistan’s insurgency-plagued northwestern tribal areasnear the border with Afghanistan, and a naval base in theBalochistan port city of Gwadar, could create further pressurefor change. China holds the Pakistan-based East TurkestanIslamic Movement responsible for attacks last year in Xinjiang’scity of Kashgar. Defeating the movement is key to Chinese plansto keep regional trade and energy flowing, and the bases inPakistan may tempt China to take on a role as local policeman.
If it takes an event to drive a change of China’s foreignpolicy, Yemen may prove to be the spark. With $355 billion worthof trade with Europe and a quarter of China’s exports travelingthrough Bab el Mandeb -- the strait that separates Yemen fromSomalia and Djibouti -- China cannot afford a collapse of lawand order in Yemen. The crisis-ridden country is counteringmultiple threats, including an al-Qaeda insurgency after massprotests and intercommunal fighting that forced the resignationof President Ali Abdullah Saleh and paved the way for electionslater this month.
Policy Breached Before China has breached its non-interference policy to respondto these pressures in the recent past. Its deployment of navalvessels off the coast of Somalia to counter piracy, for example,constituted the first Chinese venture of its kind.
But China’s status as an emerging economic superpowerdemands that it become a more muscular global actor to pursueits interests. Ultimately that will mean taking positions ondomestic disputes and conflicts around the world that have abearing on China’s global national-security interests, the veryopposite of the stance it adopted on Syria. Similarly, Chinawill need to maintain military bases in key regions that serveto secure Chinese demand for natural resources, and to satisfydomestic calls to ensure the safety of its nationals abroad.
In short, China will have to use virtually the same toolsemployed by the U.S., shouldering the risks of a foreign policythat is interest-driven and therefore, at times, contradictory.
(James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. RajaratnamSchool of International Studies at Nanyang TechnologicalUniversity in Singapore and the author of the blog, TheTurbulent World of Middle East Soccer.)
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发表于 2012-2-7 11:07
