|
|
本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2012-2-13 16:28 编辑
Who’s Xi? Probably not Hu
Posted By Mike Green http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/10/who_s_xi_probably_not_hu
Next week Xi Jinping, China'sVice President and the heir-apparent to President Hu Jintao, will make his muchanticipated debut in Washington. The playbook for Xi's visit will be the May2002 visit that Hu himself made when he was preparing to move up from VicePresident to the top leadership positions. On that trip Hu did everything he could to demonstrate his credentialsas the future steward of Sino-U.S. relations without making any compromises,missteps or news. The White Houseunderstood the drill: this was aboutinvesting in the long-term relationship with the next leader of China and notshopping for "deliverables." The WhiteHouse Spokesman, Ari Fleischer, was careful to tell the press that thePresident raised tough issues from Tibet to trade, while loweringexpectations of major breakthroughs. Itgenerally paid off in the longer-run, as Bush and Hu developed a level of trustthat helped them navigate subsequent crises in North Korea, Taiwanand later the international financial system.
Presumably both Beijingand the White House would like to repeat that success. It will not be as easy ten years later,though. In 2002 the United States wasfocused on the threat from terrorism and not the threat from China; the businesscommunity was united behind the President's efforts to advance U.S.-Chinarelations; there was some modest progress on human rights issues; and Huhimself was absolutely committed to Deng Xiaoping's admonition to bide time,gather strength and not challenge the United States.
This time around the environment is clearly moredifficult. Chinese cyberattacks,aggressive territorial claims, anti-satellite missile tests, andnon-transparent military modernization are all impossible to ignore, for the United States and for China's neighbors. The human rights situation has deteriorated,particularly in Tibetand Xinjiang and for political dissidents. The American business community is much more divided about China policyand more willing to criticize trade theft and non-tariff barriers (inparticularly unfortunate timing for Xi, this week Dupont sued another Chinesescientist for industrial espionage, the second time in three years). The one issue that is quieter than 2002 is Taiwan, forwhich both governments are probably thankful.
And while Xi is unlikely to change the fundamental directionhe is inheriting from Hu (and Hu from Jiang and Jiang from Deng), the newleader has a different style and faces considerably more domestic pressure tolook forceful than his predecessor did a decade ago. Hu, for example, took extreme care to avoidany ideological collisions with the United Statesand the West, co-opting terms like "democracy" and "responsible stakeholder"rather than respond directly to the premise that China's value system needed tochange. Xi, in contrast, gained kudosfrom nationalists at home for his 2009 statement on the "Three Did Nots" in Mexico City, in which he explicitly fired back at thecritics of China. It is also hard to find evidence Xi is a moreprogressive thinker on human rights and political space. The Dalai Lama had a good relationship withXi's father Xi Zhongxun decades ago, but Tibetan hopes for improvements underthe son were dashed when the younger Xi denounced supporters of the Dalai Lamaduring a heavily policed visit to Lhasalast summer. Similarly, China watchers in Singaporeand Southeast Asia have hoped that Xi would be more accommodating andreasonable on maritime disputes given his background as party boss in the coastalprovince of Fujien,yet as current Vice Chair of the Central Military Commission he has presidedover Beijing's expanding military operations incontested waters around Vietnam,the Philippines and Japan.
On the other hand, Xi is a more confident and charismaticpresence than Hu, knows more about the United States (next week he will revisit the Iowa town where he led an agriculturaldelegation in the early 1980s), and will likely announce major commercialagreements while he is here. So the juryis still out. As the U.S. Ambassador to China, GaryLocke, recently confessed, "it is going to take a while to really understandhow he might move forward." Meanwhile,Xi's visit to the United Statescould prove a success despite the tougher environment because for both Washington and Beijing,failure is not an option.
 该贴已经同步到 lilyma06的微博 |
|
狗仔卡
楼主
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2012-2-13 13:48
发表于 2012-2-13 14:00
