|
|
Rooting for XiWhy we should hope that China's next leader is a big success.
BY JEFFREY BADER | FEBRUARY 14, 2012http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/14/rooting_for_xi_jinping
The manexpected to be China'sleader for the next 10 years, Xi Jinping, arrived in the United States on Monday, Feb.13. This will be an excellent occasion for Americans to assess him and takestock of the relationship with the rising power of the 21st century. Needlessto say, there are complex and polarizing reactions toward China in the UnitedStates: The racially tinged advertisement by Senate candidate PeteHoekstra depictinga happy, young Chinese woman speaking broken English as she celebrates American declineis but the most recent example of an attempt to manipulate Americans' emotions ratherthan activate their brains.
TheAmerican narrative about Chinasees a rising, highly disciplined nation under a dictatorial and directedleadership with a strategic vision of regional -- if not global -- dominance. Thismay sound dark, but it's actually an attractive narrative for some. For the U.S. military, China provides a mobilizing enemyto fuel military spending, strategic doctrine, and new weapons systems. Forsome corporations and labor leaders, the notion that America can't compete with a Chinathat cheats is a pretext for protectionism and tax breaks. For those who lamentthe state of the U.S.economy and the dysfunctional U.S. political system, China's success provides a usefulchallenge, like Sputnik in the 1950s. To neoconservatives and foreign-policyhawks who see the international arena as a Hobbesian world in which Americadominates or is dominated, Chinaprovides the obvious threat to U.S.preeminence. To democracy promoters and human rights campaigners, China is theembodiment of what most needs fixing in the world.And to believers in the inevitability of American decline, Chinarepresents the 800-pound gorilla that the United States needs to accommodate sooner rather thanlater by shrinking its regional presence, drawing back to its own shores, and reducingunproductive alliances.
But let's takea deep breath and look at the real Chinathat Americafaces.
China's growth and accomplishments in thelast four decades since it abandoned Maoism and undertook reform are trulyextraordinary. From an economic backwater visible on the world stage largely asa provocateur, China's economy has grown about 10 percent per year for fourdecades and will soon be the world's largest. It is the critical tradingpartner of every important economy in East Asia.Its companies and entrepreneurs are omnipresent in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Its military is no longer 10 million menwith carbine rifles -- spending has grown at a faster rate than its economy, andChinanow boasts sophisticated missile systems, cyberwar capabilities, and stealth fightertechnology, not to mention nuclear weapons. And in the diplomatic sphere, Beijing's influence has grown too. Its support or oppositioncould mean the difference between success and failure for American efforts to reverseIran's and North Korea's nuclear weapons programs and bring an end to Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.
But thereality of Chinais much, much more complex than its rising GDP or military spending curve.
China's per capita income remains onlyabout $4,000, about 10 percent of America's. It has a handful ofcompanies that compete as global brands, the rest satisfying domestic orregional markets or serving as subcontractors for foreign brands. Its research systems excel at copying or adapting foreign technologies, rather thaninnovation. It has one of the highest disparities of wealth between rich and poorof any country in the developing world. China's environmental degradation andits shrinking water supply threaten the health of its population. And itseconomic model, which has relied on export-led growth, foreign directinvestment, and domination by state-owned enterprises and companies with partyconnections, is running out of steam and badly needs fundamental reform.
Beyondthese social and economic problems, more and more mainstream Chinese, notmerely the handful of dissidents who gain international attention, resent Beijing'sfailure to evolve toward a participatory system of governance that protectsrights and relies on the rule of law. An Internet on which state abuses go viralbefore the authorities can shut down unwelcome stories, along with blogs that amplifythese reports, ensures that hundreds of millions of Chinese know about systemicproblems. Chinese are no more tolerant of abuses of power than Americans are. Theydon't have the tools to act that Americans have, but that doesn't mean passivity alwaysprevails. A recent uprising in Guangdong province's Wukan village against corrupt dealings betweendevelopers and officials led to a remarkably sensible andhumane outcome,thanks to an astute Communist Party secretary who sought conciliation andaccountability rather than more punishment and repression. In Chongqing, theworld's largest city, a saga is unfolding involving Bo Xilai, one of theleaders expected to ascend to a senior leadership position at the party congress this fall, in which there are credible allegationsof gangsterism andabuse of power that could upend the seamless succession that most havepredicted. In the Tibetan areas of western China, we are seeing the continuinginability of a Han leadership to deal with ethnic and religious diversity bymeans other than police repression.
With Xi'sarrival in the United States,Americans need to keep in mind the complexity of the China he will rule. The world'smajor rising power is indeed a global competitor of the United States, but it is at the sametime a country beset by staggering problems at home that will preoccupy Xi'stenure. It is too soon to know whether Xi will aggressively tackle China'seconomic and governance problems with preemptive reforms, as former Premier ZhuRongji did 15 years ago, or whether he will pursue a cautious course and simplyseek to muddle through. It is in Washington'sinterest that he succeed if he takes the former route. American condemnationsof China, its leadership, andits development achievements will not derail Xi or prevent China from achieving its national destiny, butthey will ensure that most Chinese will see America as its adversary ratherthan its partner.
PresidentBarack Obama has pursued a nuanced policy toward China:welcoming its rise and economic growth, seeking to ensure that it is consistentwith international law and norms on issues such as trade, investment, law of thesea, and currency -- and working with allies and partners in the Asia-Pacificregion to ensure that China'srise contributes to, rather than detracts from, stability. To do so, Obama hasstrengthened alliances, emphasized that defense budget cutbacks won't affectpreparedness in the Western Pacific, and joined leading multilateralorganizations like the East Asia Summit, all the while meeting regularly withPresident Hu Jintao and working with China to tighten sanctions and coordinatestrategy on Iran and North Korea. The Obama administration has also stood byTaiwan and its president, Ma Ying-jeou, providing it with arms and other supportthat have allowed Ma to win reelection and reduce tension in the Taiwan Straitto its lowest level since the Communists took power in 1949.
Xi's visit does not signalnew breakthroughs in Washington's relationship with Beijing. He is only theheir apparent, not yet the man in charge, and he will not take bold steps thatwould upset his colleagues back home. But during his visit the administration cantake his measure and communicate that it wants to work with him to create aninternational environment that doesn't threaten China or the United States andthat it seeks to establish a framework for trade and investment that is fair and pro-growthin both countries. Particularly in the wake of rhetoric about a U.S."pivot" to the Western Pacific accompanying Obama's visit to Asiain November and overexcitedChinese reactions, the Chinese should be told that a strengthened U.S. overallpresence in the region will be structured to facilitate, not prevent, China'speaceful rise. In the overheated atmosphere of an election year, it will beimportant to communicate to Xi that the United States will not take protectionist steps thatwould be popular for a moment but counterproductive in the long run. At thesame time, Xi should be made to understand that U.S. frustrations over tradeissues are not a mere election-year ploy, but reflect deep-seated irritation andwill be dangerous to the relationship if unaddressed. That will require arecommitment of China's leaders to systemic reform. If on the other hand the United States goesfor quick victories and headlines, it will only persuade the man expected torule China for the next decade to distrust America, rather than want to work with it.
 该贴已经同步到 lilyma06的微博 |
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2012-2-15 14:58
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2012-2-15 15:11
