【外交政策0223】亚洲新小虎？你所不为人知的越南十个方面

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The New Asian Tiger?Ten things you didn't know about Vietnam's rise.
   BY MARCO BREU , RICHARD DOBBS |            FEBRUARY 23, 2012http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/23/the_new_asian_tiger?page=0,0


      
It's clear that much has changed in Southeast Asia since the Vietnam War.Over the past 25 years, Vietnam has transformed itself. In 2007, Vietnam becamea full-fledged member of the global economic community through its membership in the World Trade Organization. It has become a magnet for foreign investmentand is evolving rapidly from an agricultural economy to one focused onhigher-value manufacturing and services. But if Vietnam wants to sustain itsremarkable growth, it will need to boost labor productivity in the industrialand service sectors in the years ahead.
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Here are 10 takeaways from the McKinsey Global Institute report "Sustaining Vietnam's Growth: The Productivity Challenge" that might surprise you.
1. Vietnamhas grown more rapidly than any other Asian economy except China.
Vietnam, a country once ravaged bywar, has been one of Asia's economic success stories over the past quarter-century. Ever since the Communist Party introduced reforms known as "Doi Moi" ("Renovation") in 1986, the country has reduced barriers to trade and capitalflows and opened the economy more widely to private business. During thisperiod, the economy has expanded faster than any other Asian economy exceptChina's, posting annual per capita GDP growth of 5.3percent. This growth has continued in the face of the 1990s Asian financial crisis and the recent global economic downturn (the economy grew 7percent per year from 2005 to 2010) -- a more robust record than many otherAsian economies can boast.


2. Vietnamis moving out of the paddy fields.
Vietnam'seconomy no longer revolves around agriculture. In fact, agriculture's contributionto the country's GDP has been cut in half from 40 to 20 percent in just 15years, in a much more rapid shift than we have observed in other Asianeconomies. A comparable transformation took 29 years in China and 41 years inIndia.
Over thepast 10 years, agriculture's share of national employment has dropped by 13percentage points, while the share of workers employed in industry has risen by9.6 points and in services by 3.4 points. This shift of workers fromagriculture to industry and services has made a powerfulcontribution to Vietnam's economic expansion because of the large differencesin productivity between these sectors. As a result, agriculture's share of GDPhas fallen by 6.7 percentage points while industry's share has risen by 7.2percentage points over the past 10 years.



3. ButVietnam is a leading global exporter of pepper, cashews, rice, and coffee.
Vietnam is the world's leading exporter ofpepper, shipping 116,000 tons of the spice in 2010, and has led the world inexports of cashews for four years in a row. The country is also the world'ssecond-biggest exporter of rice after Thailand and second only to Brazil inexports of coffee, which have nearly tripled in just four years. Vietnam ranksfifth in the world in the production of tea and sixth in exports of seafoodsuch as catfish, cuttlefish, shrimp, and tuna.


4. Vietnamis not "China+1."
Rising labor costs in China have alreadyspurred some factory owners to shift production to Vietnam, which has anabundance of low-wage labor. The trend has fueled talk among many CEOs aboutVietnam becoming Asia's next big platform for manufacturing exports -- asmaller version of China, or China+1.
But Vietnamis very different from China in two respects. First, Vietnam's economy isdriven more by personal consumption than China's is. Consumption by householdsaccounts for 65 percent of Vietnam's GDP -- an unusually high share in Asia. InChina, by contrast, consumption accounts for just 36 percent of GDP.
Second,while China's rapid economic growth has been fueled by manufacturing exportsand extraordinarily high levels of capital investment, Vietnam's economy ismuch more balanced between manufacturing and services, which each accountingfor approximately 40 percent of GDP. Vietnam's growth has been broad-based,with competitive niches across the economy. Over the past five years, output inthe industry (including construction, manufacturing, mining, and utilities) andservice sectors has grown at comparable annual rates of about 8 percent.


5. Vietnam isa magnet for foreign investment.
Vietnam ison most lists of attractive emerging markets for foreign investors. Surveys by Britain's trade and investment department and the EconomistIntelligence Unit have consistentlyranked Vietnam themost attractive emerging-market destination for foreign direct investment (FDI)after the BRIC quartet of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Registered FDIflows into Vietnam increased from $3.2 billion in 2003 to $71.7 billion in 2008before falling during the global recession to $21.5 billion in 2009.
Here, again, Vietnam diverges from China.Nearly 60 percent of FDI in China has been poured into labor-intensivemanufacturing, compared with only 20 percent in Vietnam. In the latter case,much of the remaining investment has found its way to mining, quarrying, andoil and gas extraction (40 percent) and real estate (15 to 20 percent),reflecting rapid growth in Vietnam's tourism industry. The number of foreigntourists coming to Vietnam has risen by one-third since 2005.


6. Vietnam has moreadvanced road infrastructure than the Philippines or Thailand.
Vietnam hasbegun to make significant investments in infrastructure. Many visitors toVietnam still view the country's roads as pretty basic. But, for its stage ofeconomic development, Vietnam has been adding road infrastructure at quite arate. Its road density reached 0.78 kilometers per square kilometer in 2009,which is higher than the road density in the Philippines or Thailand, botheconomies that are further on in their development than Vietnam is. That sameyear, electricity networks covered more than 96 percent of the country. Newcontainer ports such as those in Dung Quat and Cai Mep and airports such asthose in Da Nang in central Vietnam and Can Tho in the Mekong Delta region haveimproved connections with the rest of the world.


7. Vietnam'syoung generation is going online.
Vietnam's population is young, well-educated, and increasinglyonline. Mobile subscriptions in Vietnam grew nearly 70 percent per yearbetween 2000 and 2010 compared with less than 10 percent per year in the UnitedStates in the same decade. By the end of 2010, Vietnam had 170 milliontelephone subscribers, of which 154 million had mobile subscriptions.
At 31 percent, Internet penetration in Vietnam is much lower thanin other Asian states such as Malaysia (55 percent) and Taiwan (72 percent).But this is changing rapidly. Broadband subscriptions in Vietnam increased from0.5 million in 2006 to around 3.8 million in 2010, the same year that 3Gsubscriptions hit 7.7 million. Once the telecom infrastructure catches up, mobileand Internet use is likely to explode. Already, 94 percent of Vietnam'sInternet users access news online. More than 40 percent of users access the webevery day.


8. Vietnam is becoming a top location foroutsourced and offshore services.
Vietnamalready employs more than 100,000 people in the outsourcing and offshoreservices sector, which today generates annual revenues of more than $1.5billion. Several prominent multinational corporations have establishedoperations in Vietnam, including Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Panasonic. In fact,the country has the potential to become one of the top 10 locations in theworld in this sector, due to its relatively large pool of young collegegraduates (universities send 257,000 young men and women into the workforceeach year) and relatively low wages. A software programmer in Vietnam can beemployed for less than 60 percent of what it costs to hire one in China, whiledata-processing and voice-processing agents in Vietnam cost 50 percent less toemploy than their counterparts in China.
Outsourcing and offshore services inVietnam could produce annual revenues of between $6 billion and $8 billion ayear, much of it export-oriented -- as long as there is sufficient demand andVietnam ensures that it can satisfy that demand. This sector could become anengine of job creation in urban areas, employing an additional 600,000 to700,000 people by 2020 and contributing 3 to 5 percent to Vietnam's GDP growth.


9.Vietnamese banks are lending at a faster rate than their Chinese, Indian, orASEAN counterparts.
Totaloutstanding bank loans in Vietnam have increased by 33 percent per year overthe past decade -- a stronger growth rate than those recorded in China, India,or any Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) country. By the end of2010, the value of outstanding loans had reached an estimated 120 percent ofGDP, compared with only 22 percent in 2000. Although this may be evidence of newdynamism in the Vietnamese economy, oiled by an expanding banking system, the worryis that an associated rise in non-performing loans could trigger significanteconomic distress in Vietnam (as it has elsewhere) and force the government tointervene in the financial sector to protect depositors, the banking system,and, ultimately, taxpayers.


10.Vietnam's demographic dividend is waning.
Between 2005and 2010, an expanding pool of young workers and a rapid shift away fromagriculture generated two-thirds of Vietnam's growth. The other one-third camefrom enhanced productivity. But now the first two drivers of growth areweakening. Official statistics predict that growth in the labor force willdecline to around 0.6 percent a year over the next decade, compared with annualgrowth of 2.8 percent from 2000 to 2010. And it seems very unlikely that thetransition from farm to factory can continue at anything like the speed we haveseen in the recent past.
Productivityimprovements will therefore need to pick up the slack if Vietnam is to maintainits historical growth rate. More precisely, labor productivity growth in theservice and manufacturing sectors will need to accelerate by more than 50percent from 4.1 percent annually to 6.4 percent if the economy is to meet thegovernment's target of 7 to 8 percent annual growth by 2020. Should thatproductivity boost not materialize, Vietnam's growth would likely decline tobetween 4.5 and 5 percent annually. At that pace, Vietnam's GDP in 2020 wouldbe 30 percent lower than it would have been had the economy continued to growby 7 percent each year.
* * *

Vietnam hasmany intrinsic strengths -- a young labor force, abundant natural resources,and political stability. If it acts decisively to head off short-term risks andpursues a productivity-led growth agenda, it can enter a second wave of growthand prosperity.

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