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本帖最后由 maxmin 于 2012-3-4 21:18 编辑
A Better Inflation Gauge Shows Why Inflation's Much Worse
By Dan Caplinger
Posted 12:25PM 03/02/12
Economy
美国政府在玩弄数据方面是个行家,许多其公布的数据都是经过处理过的,它每月公布的通货膨胀率就是一个例子。美国政府公布的通货膨胀率CPI是不包括能源和食品这两个关系到每个普通美国民众日常生活关键数据的,而是所谓耐用品如汽车和服装等这些非日常用品的通货膨胀率,所以与普通民众日常的感觉相差悬殊。现在美国民间的一个机构《美国经济研究所》采用包括范围更广的通胀率来表述美国实际通胀率2011年为8%,而非美国政府公布的3.1%。
Plunging home values and swinging stock markets have hit Americans' finances hard. But a much bigger threat to your long-term financial health is inflation, which slowly but surely destroys the purchasing power of your hard-earned money.
Since things like Social Security benefits are pegged to inflation rates, it's important for the government to measure it accurately. Unfortunately, gauges like the Consumer Price Index don't always reflect economic reality for ordinary Americans.
That's why one organization wants to create a more accurate inflation yardstick.
The American Institute for Economic Research recently published its latest findings on its Everyday Price Index, which it argues is a better way to measure inflation than the CPI.
By looking at how people change the mix of products they buy over time in response to price movements and other factors, the AIER says, the EPI gives a much more realistic picture of what you actually pay for the things you buy.
According to its latest revised figures, the everyday price index rose 8% in 2011. That's much higher than the 3.1% increase in the CPI, as price hikes for gasoline and food played a much bigger role in the EPI's rise.
A Widening Gap Between CPI and Reality
When the AIER looked back at the last 25 years, however, it found an even more alarming trend: Until around 2002, the CPI and the Everyday Price Index tracked each other fairly closely. But over the past decade or so, the CPI has risen much more slowly than the EPI.
One key reason, the AIER says, has to do with technology products such as computers, smartphones and TVs. While prices for these products are factored into the CPI, AIER ignores them in calculating its inflation index because they aren't everyday purchases. Moreover, the CPI methodology incorporates adjustments for technological advances that further depress reported price increases.
Of course, no two people are alike in what they buy, so the inflation you'll see will be a bit different from that affecting someone else. But everyone has to look at the prices they pay in order make sure the money they save and invest will be enough to let them live comfortably in retirement. If you don't, inflation could take a bigger bite out of your savings than you think.
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