【外交政策0307】中国大规模军事集结的8个令人惊讶的赢家

lilyma06

Riding the DragonFrom the Norwegian Coast Guard to Israeli drone technicians, 8 surprising winners of China's massive military buildup.
   BY TREFOR MOSS |            MARCH 7, 2012http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/07/riding_the_dragon


      
Even by the hot-money standards of China's economy, defense is anexceptionally lucrative growth industry. The country's 11.2 percent defense budget increase announced March 4, which givesthe People's Liberation Army (PLA) $106 billion to spend in 2012, is merely thelatest in a long succession of generous budget hikes that have doubled China'smilitary resources every six or seven years since the early 1990s.
This bonanza has produced many winners within China, from theaverage soldier to domestic defense contractors to ordinary citizens who feelChina's sense of pride being restored. Even President Hu Jintao will feel alittle more secure in his command of the military after signing off this year's$11 billion PLA pay raise.
Yet some beneficiaries of Beijing's military largesse can be found farbeyond China's shores. Some are allies and suppliers that stand to gaindirectly from the trickle-down of PLA procurement and overseas operations.Others represent the counterbalance of governments wary of China's militaryascent. Here are just eight of the unintended passengers on Beijing's defensebudget escalator.

1. The Norwegian Coast Guard
The South China Sea is notthe only maritime territory that has been attracting Beijing's attention: TheArctic, rich in untapped resources, is another oceanic region that China wantsto exploit. However, China's relations with Norway -- one of the five countrieswith territorial interests in the far North, China not being one of them -- havebeen rocky ever since the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel PeacePrize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. Yet far from intimidated by China'soverbearing response to the Nobel, Norway opted this yearto block Chinese involvement in the Arctic Council, pushingSino-Norwegian relations even further into the freezer. With Arctic Councilmembers Canada and Denmark more supportive of China's northern ambitions,Chinese naval ships could become increasingly active above the 66th parallel. ForNorway, that is not a welcome prospect. The 14-ship fleet of the NorwegianCoast Guard, tasked with patrolling the Arctic, has been enjoying increasedfunding over the last few years in anticipation of tensions in the thawingNorth. That trend will continue as long as China continues to eye Norway's backyard.

2. Philippine fighter pilots
The Philippines has lackedan air-combat wing since it grounded its fleet of old F-5s in 2005. Thisyear, however, should mark a turnaround in the fortunes of the Philippine Air Force as China'sexpanding military reach has caused Manila to show the service some love. ThePhilippine defense and foreign secretaries will likely visit Washington nextmonth for talks that could re-energize the U.S.-Philippine strategicrelationship. At the top of their request list: a squadron of ex-U.S. Air ForceF-16s to get their fighter pilots back in the air. The purchase of a smallfleet of fighter trainer aircraft, from either Italy or South Korea, will also likelybe fast-tracked in reaction to China's activities.

3. The Seychelles
Slowly and cautiously, thePLA has been expanding its overseas operations. It has sent peacekeepers to numeroustrouble spots, from East Timor to Haiti, over the past decade. Beijing has alsobeen deploying anti-piracy patrols to the Gulf of Aden since 2008 and, mostambitiously, evacuatedChinese personnel from Libya in 2011. Thenext logical step in China's military evolution is to establish apermanent overseas presence, a luxury the PLA Navy can now afford. The IndianOcean republic of the Seychelles, which in December formally invited theChinese military to use its seaports and main airport, looks set to play hostto that first PLA outpost. The official Chinese position is that China is considering the offer, but the strategic importance of the Indian Oceanmakes China's refusal highly unlikely. U.S. and Indian objections that a remotebase will mark an aggressive shift in China's military posture will bedismissed on the grounds that the PLA Navy will be able to intensify itsanti-piracy operations in the area. The increase in Chinese traffic and, moreimportantly, Beijing's strategic favor will be a boon for the Seychelles'economy.

4. Indian military attachés
Not all Asian countriesworry about China's rise, but India seems the natural leader for those that do.Moving with relatively little fanfare into the slipstream of the United Statesand China's big-power rivalry, India has been quietly developing into a tertiaryAsian superpower. As China ramps up its military outlay, India's defensediplomats will find that their job, especially in Southeast Asia, has neverbeen so busy, with Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and others eagerto draw on Indian military expertise. Sales of Indian weapons systems into SoutheastAsia may soon follow as New Delhi moves to occupy the strategic space opened byregional disquiet over China's military buildup.

5. U.S. Cyber Command
The Pentagon may bedownsizing, but the United States can still respond to China's budgetary increasesby channeling extra funds to certain key areas -- especially those where China challengesU.S. primacy. The PLA will devote a large and growing share of its $106 billionbudget to cyber, a relatively new field of military operations in which it isarguably the world leader. As a result, the recently established U.S. CyberCommand can look forward to life as one of the few branches of the U.S.military that still has a growing bankroll. U.S. defense contractors thatprovide the U.S. government with cybersecurity solutions have identified cyber as abusiness area that can help compensate for the decline in other defenserevenues. Only this week, one of the U.S. government's main cybersecurityproviders, Northrop Grumman, scored a $189 millioncontract to help shore up the computer systems of the Defense Department and the U.S.intelligence agencies.

6. Taiwanese submariners
China's announcement of itsfirst $100 billion-plus defense budget could hardly have come at a moreopportune moment for the Taiwanese Navy, which is lobbying hard for the Taipei governmentto greenlight an ambitious new submarine development program. Having finally abandonedany hope of Washington supplying the eight submarines that it agreed to sell Taiwan back in 2001, the Taiwanese Navy hasnow concluded that the island will have to build its own boats -- most likelywith German or Spanish technical assistance -- if it is to have any hope ofdefending its territorial waters from the fast-improving PLA Navy. The programwill be prohibitively expensive, but China's decision to spend so much more ondefense makes it a little easier for Taiwan's military commanders to argue thatthey need to do the same.

7. Israeli drone technicians
Most Asian countries with anotable defense industry are busy developing their own unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs),especially those countries concerned about Chinese maritime incursions. China'smilitary advances, however,  mean that some regional militaries will prefer to importforeign systems now rather than wait for their domestic suppliers to get theirUAVs flying several years down the track.
Israeli defense contractorslike IAI and Elbit, world leaders in this technology, are best placed to cashin on the likely explosion in Asian drone demand. The Israelis have alreadysold UAVs to India and Singapore, and with China's double-digit budget hikeproviding the necessary catalyst, more Asian orders will follow.

8. Myanmar President Thein Sein
As Myanmar emerges fromisolation, the country's reformist president, Thein Sein, should find thatregional fear of China's growing military power greatly aids his attempts toconvince the world that his ex-military junta is now packed with born-againdemocrats. Once seen as a compliant Chinese satellite, Myanmar has lately signaledthat it wants to roll back Beijing's influence. Beyond halting some significantChinese-backed infrastructure projects, Thein Sein's administration has also beenreaching out to India, the United States, and other nations with a stake in acountry that many regard as one of Asia's strategic "crossroads." Myanmar'sstrategic value may therefore convince Washington and other governmentsto judge the country's political reforms less harshly than they might have otherwise,for fear of driving Thein Sein back into China's open arms.



该贴已经同步到 lilyma06的微博

wangzb838

婴语。。。。。。