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【中文标题】蓝色星球－如果全世界人民都来投票选举美国总统
【原文标题】Blue Planet What if the world could vote in the U.S. election?
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文作者】URI FRIEDMAN
【原文链接】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/31/blue_planet
投票结果显示，全世界对2012年美国总统大选的关注程度，远不及2008年那一次，广受欢迎的巴拉克•奥巴马成功取代了不招人待见的乔治•W•布什。糟糕的是，这个月的一项调查发现，40％的俄罗斯人根本不知道美国在今年要举行总统大选。
但这并不意味外国人不关心大选的结果。在最近一次盖洛普国际民意调查中，来自32个国家的26000名受访者里，有62％的人认为美国总统对他们的生活产生重大、或者很重大的影响。42％的人感觉他们因此应当有权投票选举美国总统。如果你认为自己是自由世界的领导人，你就应该相信世界会对你这个人产生兴趣。
那么，如果世界人民真的可以投票，选举结果将是什么样子的？答案很简单：绝对不会像国内那样势均力敌。在UPI的调查中，32个国家中有31个国家倾向于奥巴马，不喜欢罗姆尼；BBC的调查中，21个国家里有20个支持奥巴马。UPI的调查中，51％的受访人说他们将会投票支持奥巴马，18％的受访人说他们不确定会投票给奥巴马还是罗姆尼，12％的人表示支持共和党候选人（译者注：指罗姆尼）。在BBC的调查中，50％的受访人选择奥巴马，只有9％的人选择罗姆尼。
简单来说，调查结果营造出一个似乎带有误导性的景象——全世界都热爱奥巴马，对罗姆尼不屑一顾。但是如果深入分析这几个月来海外调查的细节，会发现现实远比表象复杂。法国一边倒地支持现任美国总统，而巴基斯坦恨不得把两位候选人都一脚踢开，还有很多国家在中间游移。如果我们用美国政治的通用语言来阐述选举结果，那么以下就是全球选民的分布状况：
红色州（译者注：指亲共和党）
实际上，世界上只有一个红色州（国家），就是以色列。以色列民主学院和特拉维夫大学在上周的调查显示，52％的以色列人认为，罗姆尼在选举中获胜更符合以色列的利益，只有25％的人支持奥巴马。以色列的犹太人群对此事的倾向性最明显，支持罗姆尼和奥巴马的比率是57比22，几乎所有右翼分子都强烈支持罗姆尼。与此形成鲜明对比的是以色列的阿拉伯人群，他们中的45％支持奥巴马，15％支持罗姆尼。早些时候，YouGov剑桥的调查显示，巴勒斯坦地区的受访者没有一个人认为罗姆尼当选会让他们更喜欢美国（50％的人说无论谁当选都不会影响他们对美国的感觉）。
罗姆尼在选举期间对伊朗的核项目采取强硬的姿态，多次强调美国与以色列关系的重要性（他在夏天访问过耶路撒冷），并且对巴勒斯坦的和平承诺持怀疑态度。本杰明•内塔尼亚胡曾经试图让美国认可伊朗核项目的“红线”，当时他并没有明确表示倾向于哪个候选人。但是以色列媒体猜测，总理在美国大选中瞎掺和，如果奥巴马成功连任，有可能会招致美国的报复。
蓝色州（译者注：指亲民主党）
纵观全世界，再也没有比法国更忠诚的美国盟友了。在无数次的民意调查之后，法国始终位居奥巴马支持者排行榜之首，支持率在70％到90％之间。法国的社会主义总统弗朗索瓦•奥朗德似乎就是一个坚定的支持者，当然他也意识到，罗姆尼谴责奥巴马努力让美国变成一个“欧盟式的福利国家”，这种情况下，法国无私的爱恐怕得不到任何回报。奥朗德最近开玩笑说，他应当赞同罗姆尼，这样才可以破坏他的竞选希望。
很多西欧和北欧国家，包括丹麦、芬兰、德国、冰岛、爱尔兰、瑞典、瑞士、荷兰和英国，也对奥巴马满腔热情，UPI的调查结果显示芬兰和冰岛等国家的热情度没有德国那么高。几个南欧和东欧国家，比如意大利和捷克，也加入了挺奥阵营。
世界其它地方，巴西、加拿大、哥伦比亚和巴拿马也是奥巴马阵营的坚定拥趸，这些国家对奥巴马的支持率都在60％以上。在亚太地区，比如澳大利亚、印度尼西亚（奥巴马的童年生活地）和韩国的支持率在50％到60％之间；喀麦隆和尼日利亚等非洲国家的支持率在60％到70％之间。BBC的调查结果显示，奥巴马的支持率在巴西、印度尼西亚和巴拿马迅速上升（巴西人极为喜爱奥巴马，至少16％的市政选举候选人改用他的名字来吸引选票。）
以上这些国家，支持奥巴马连任的比率从50％到90％——足够让现任总统把这些国家踏踏实实地收入囊中。
淡蓝色州
这类国家与其它类别的国家多少有一些重合，他们的共性是，对奥巴马过去4年的表现越来越失望。正如罗姆尼的竞选伙伴保罗•瑞恩在大会上的发言，就像一群年轻人看着奥巴马褪色的竞选海报。
肯尼亚是总统已故父亲的家乡，据BBC的调查数据，那里对奥巴马的支持率，从2008年令人难以置信的87％下降到今天的66％。同一时期，对奥巴马的共和党挑战者的支持率，从5％上升到18％（UPI的调查数据显示，肯尼亚对奥巴马的支持率还是维持在83％）。肯尼亚律师Dann Mwangi最近在《英文虎报》上撰文说：“与以往美国总统相比，尤其是离任时支持率极低的布什总统，奥巴马政府在与非洲的关系上没有做出任何改善，也没有出台任何关注非洲的具体经济和社会政策。”（当然，在奥巴马父亲曾经居住的村庄里，奥巴马狂热症依然没有退去。）
同样，调查结果显示墨西哥对奥巴马的支持率从54％下降到43％，中国从35％下降到28％，波兰从38％下降到34％。皮尤研究中心在今年秋天的调查结果也证实了以上结果——中国人对奥巴马的信心自2009年开始下降了24个百分点，墨西哥和波兰分别下降了13和12个百分点。
皮尤调查结果显示，日本和西班牙对总统的信心下降了11个百分点，这或许可以解释为什么所有调查机构都会把这两个国家包括在内。在奥巴马与罗姆尼的较量中，西班牙人力挺奥巴马的比率在45％到77％之间（葡萄牙的比率与此类似）。BBC和UPI的调查显示，日本对奥巴马的支持率为30％多，但是66％的日本受访者认为奥巴马应当连任。（罗姆尼在第一场辩论中用西班牙来举例说明对国家财政不负责任的现象，他没办法指望提升自己在这个国家的形象。）
罗姆尼在波兰的支持率为16％，多少有一些提升，主要是因为约翰•麦凯恩在2008年的表现被波兰所欢迎。（罗姆尼在今年夏天造访华沙，他抨击奥巴马政府为了取悦俄罗斯而放弃波兰。）但是在中国，皮尤调查结果发现这是唯一一个对2012年大选的关注程度超过2008年大选的国家，奥巴马的支持率下降，罗姆尼的支持率也没有上升。中国新闻媒体和官员多次谴责两名候选人的“中国抨击”行为。在UPI和BBC的调查结果中，奥巴马分别以38比16和28比9的比率明显战胜罗姆尼，但是超过半数的受访者表示不支持任何一个候选人。
摇摆州
在全球背景下，我们最好不要把“摇摆州”当成分别支持奥巴马和罗姆尼的国家，而应该是对此漠不关心，有至少一半的人口不会参与投票的国家。你或许可以说这些沉默的大多数还没有拿定主意，但是总统和共和党挑战者在短时期内不大会赢得他们的支持。
像中国、墨西哥和波兰这类浅蓝色国家，或许也可以被归入摇摆类。但是更准确地说，我们应当关注那些奥巴马的支持率在20％到40％之间，罗姆尼的支持率在一位数或者百分之十几的国家。这其中包括了拉丁美洲的厄瓜多尔和秘鲁；亚洲的香港、印度和马来西亚；中东地区的伊拉克、黎巴嫩、沙特阿拉伯、突尼斯和土耳其；东欧的保加利亚、格鲁吉亚、马其顿、罗马尼亚和斯洛伐克。
目前处于欧债危机中心的希腊也可以被划归这一阵营，45％的希腊受访者认为奥巴马应当连任。埃及认为奥巴马应当连任的比率是18％，29％的人对奥巴马政府充满信心，比2009年的数字下降了13个百分点。（我们不大了解中东热点国家的观点，比如利比亚和叙利亚，但是在YouGov剑桥的调查中，这两个国家超过半数的受访者认为，罗姆尼当选不会影响他们对美国的态度。）开罗一位教授在接受路透社采访时说，奥巴马“没做什么事”，但是“比罗姆尼强多了”。
在俄罗斯，德国马歇尔泛大西洋机构的调查结果显示，对奥巴马和罗姆尼的支持比是27比12（本周俄罗斯列瓦达中心的调查结果显示这个比率上升到41比8）。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京对罗姆尼把俄罗斯认作美国头号地缘政治强敌的说法不屑一顾，他这样评价奥巴马——“一个非常诚实的人”。
第三方据点
鉴于其长期以来坚定不移的反美斗争——无人机轰炸和奥萨马•本•拉登事件更是火上浇油——我们认为巴基斯坦应当被归入单独的一类国家。BBC的调查结果有一个惊人的发现，支持罗姆尼的巴基斯坦人（14％）超过支持奥巴马的人（11％）。但是这个数字存在于一个大背景下——绝大部分巴基斯坦人不喜欢任何一个候选人。UPI的调查结果与此类似，13％的巴基斯坦受访者支持奥巴马，9％支持罗姆尼，将近50％的人说不支持任何一个，这两个人没什么区别。这种现象在巴基斯坦并不新鲜，皮尤2012年的调查发现7％的巴基斯坦人对奥巴马政府有信心，2009年这个数字是13％。
在《美国人糟糕的选择》和《美国大选对巴基斯坦毫无意义》等新闻标题中，我们不难发现巴基斯坦的媒体与民众的观点基本一致。Tughral Yamin在《国际新闻报》发表评论：“无论党派颜色，美国总统的所作所为，一定是他自己认为，或者是美国国务院、五角大楼，以及CIA认为最符合美国利益的事情。我们应当关心如何建设好我们自己的国家，让无论是谁在未来入主白宫，都要认真对待巴基斯坦。”
在这些调查结果之下，我们能发现些什么呢？据UPI提供的数据，热烈支持奥巴马的国家倾向于把个人能力、性格和背景作为（理论上）投票的主要决定因素。而那些反对总统，或者支持罗姆尼的国家，更加关注的是候选人所奉行的政策对自身的影响。从更高层面上看，除非有异常情况发生，否则以色列是罗姆尼的国家，北欧和西欧是奥巴马的国家，其它摇摆不定的国家夹在中间。至于巴基斯坦，他们或许会一窝蜂投票给罗恩•保罗。
原文：
Sure, polling may suggest that the world isn't following the 2012 U.S. election as closely as it did the 2008 presidential race, when a wildly popular Barack Obama embarked on his quest to replace the deeply unpopular George W. Bush. Heck, 40 percent of Russians in one survey this month didn't even know the U.S. election was taking place this year.
But that doesn't mean people overseas don't care about the campaign's outcome. In a recent UPI/C-Voter/WIN-Gallup International poll, which surveyed more than 26,000 men and women in 32 countries, 62 percent of respondents said that the U.S. president has a high or very high impact on their lives, and 42 percent felt they should have the right to vote in this year's contest for that very reason. When you call yourself the leader of the free world, you'd better believe the world is going to take an interest in who you are.
So what would the election look like if the world really could vote? The short answer: nothing like the razor-thin race unfolding at home. Obama is preferred over Mitt Romney in 31 out of 32 countries in the UPI poll and 20 out of 21 countries in another BBC World Service/GlobeScan/PIPA survey. Fifty-one percent of respondents in the UPI poll said they would cast a ballot for Obama, with more people saying they wouldn't vote for either candidate (18 percent) than would vote for the Republican nominee (12 percent). In the BBC survey, 50 percent of respondents chose Obama and only 9 percent selected Romney.
When translated into headlines, these results can paint the misleading picture that the world is crazy about Obama and dismissive of Romney. But a look at all the polling that has been conducted abroad in recent months suggests that the reality is far more nuanced. You have the French supporting the U.S. president in droves while the Pakistanis spurn both candidates, with most countries falling somewhere in between. If we were handicapping the election using the lingua franca of American politics, here's how we might break down the global electorate.
RED STATES
There is really only one red (foreign) state in this election, and it's Israel. In a poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University last week, 52 percent of Israelis said a Romney win would be preferable for Israeli interests, compared with 25 percent who said the same about Obama. The divide was starker among Jewish Israelis, who backed Romney by a 57-22 margin, with support for the GOP candidate strongest among right-wingers. A plurality of Arab Israelis, by contrast, favored Obama (45 percent) over Romney (15 percent). Earlier this fall, a YouGov-Cambridge survey found that 0 percent of Palestinian respondents felt that Romney's election would make them more favorable to the United States (nearly 50 percent said it would have no impact on their feelings toward America).
During the campaign, Romney has taken an aggressive stance on Iran's nuclear program, repeatedly emphasized the importance of U.S.-Israeli relations (he visited Jerusalem over the summer), and expressed skepticism about the Palestinians' commitment to peace. Benjamin Netanyahu hasn't expressed a preference for Obama or Romney during his effort to get the United States to commit to clear "red lines" for Iran's nuclear program, but the Israeli press has speculated that the prime minister's meddling in the race could invite U.S. payback if Obama is reelected.
BLUE STATES
The world over, the American president may have no stauncher friend than France. In poll after poll after poll after poll, the French top the list of Obama backers, with support ranging from the low 70s to the low 90s, depending on the survey. France's Socialist President François Hollande appears to be one of those boosters, though he also recognizes that France's love could go unrequited during a campaign in which Romney has accused Obama of endeavoring to turn the United States into a "European-style welfare state." Hollande recently joked that he should endorse Romney just to sink the candidate's chances.
Many Western and Northern European nations -- including Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom -- are similarly enthusiastic, though the UPI poll suggests that countries such as Finland and Ireland are less passionate about Obama than, say, Germany. A couple Southern and Eastern European countries -- namely Italy and the Czech Republic -- belong in this category as well.
Elsewhere in the world, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, and Panama are staunchly in the Obama camp, with support hovering around the 60s. Obama is polling in the 50s and 60s in Asia-Pacific countries such as Australia, Indonesia (where Obama lived as a young boy), and South Korea, and in the 60s and 70s in African countries like Cameroon and Nigeria. BBC polling suggests that support for Obama has actually surged in Brazil, Indonesia, and Panama (Obama's so popular in Brazil, in fact, that at least 16 candidates recently used the president's name to attract votes during municipal elections).
Anywhere from 50 to 90 percent of respondents in the countries above want Obama to be reelected -- enough of a groundswell to put these nations safely in the incumbent's column.
LIGHT BLUE STATES
This category overlaps with others on the list, but the countries involved constitute something of a special case: All have grown markedly disillusioned with Obama over the past four years. Think of these countries as the young people staring up at faded Obama posters that Romney running mate Paul Ryan mentioned in his convention speech.
Support for Obama in Kenya, once the home of the president's late father, has declined from a staggering 87 percent in 2008 to 66 percent today, according to the BBC, while support for Obama's Republican challenger has risen from 5 percent to 18 percent during the same period (it's worth noting that UPI still has Obama polling at 83 percent in Kenya). "Compared to other past U.S. presidents and in particular President Bush, who had very low approval levels when he left office, the Obama administration has not in any way improved relations with Africa or has had any specific economic and social policy favoring Africans," Kenyan lawyer Dann Mwangi recently noted in The Standard (though apparently Obamamania is still alive and well in Obama's father's village).
The same poll shows support for Obama falling from 54 percent to 43 percent in Mexico, 35 percent to 28 percent in China, and 38 percent to 34 percent in Poland. A Pew Research Center survey this past spring backed up this finding, showing confidence in Obama's leadership plummeting 24 points in China since 2009 and 13 and 12 points in Mexico and Poland, respectively.
The Pew poll also showed that confidence in the president has fallen by 11 points in Japan and Spain, which perhaps explains why polling for these two countries is all over the place. Surveys that pit Obama against Romney have shown the president polling anywhere from 45 percent to 77 percent among Spaniards (polling in Portugal produces similar swings). BBC and UPI polls show Obama polling in the 30s in Japan, but 66 percent of Japanese respondents in the Pew poll said Obama should be reelected (Romney may not have improved his standing in Spain by using the country as a cautionary tale about fiscal irresponsibility during the first debate).
Romney, who's polling at 16 percent in Poland, has improved slightly on John McCain's popularity in the country in 2008 (Romney visited Warsaw during his overseas trip this summer and has accused the Obama administration of abandoning its Polish ally to appease Russia). But in China, the only country in Pew's survey that is following the 2012 election more closely than the 2008 race, Romney has not capitalized on Obama's declining support. Instead, Chinese news outlets and officials have repeatedly condemned "China-bashing" by both candidates. It's telling that while Obama is beating Romney 38-16 among Chinese participants in UPI's poll and 28-9 in the BBC's poll, half or more of the respondents in the surveys didn't express support for either candidate.
SWING STATES
In the global context, it's helpful to think of swing states not as those that could break for either Obama or Romney but rather as countries where support for the candidates is tepid and where roughly half or more of the population wouldn't vote for either of the presidential aspirants. You could say these silent majorities are undecided, but the president and his Republican challenger are unlikely to win them over any time soon.
Light Blue countries like China, Mexico, and Poland might also fit into this category. But so would several other nations where Obama is polling anywhere from the 20s to the 40s and Romney is stuck in the single digits or low teens. These include Ecuador and Peru in Latin America; Hong Kong, India, and Malaysia in Asia; Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Turkey in the Middle East; and Bulgaria, Georgia, Macedonia, Romania, and Slovakia in Eastern Europe.
Greece, which is currently at the center of the European debt crisis, might fall into this camp as well, since only 45 percent of Greek respondents told Pew that Obama should be reelected. In the same survey, only 18 percent of respondents from Egypt said Obama should be reelected and just 29 percent expressed confidence in Obama's leadership, a 13-point drop from 2009 (we don't know much about opinion in other Middle Eastern flashpoints such as Libya and Syria, but more than half of YouGov/Cambridge respondents in both countries said Romney's election would have no impact on their feelings toward the United States). As one professor in Cairo told Reuters, Obama "didn't deliver" but "he is much better than Romney."
In Russia, meanwhile, Obama is beating Romney by a margin of 27-12, according to the German Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Trends survey (a poll this week by Russia's Levada Center has Obama up 41 to 8). Russian President Vladimir Putin, for his part, has dismissed Romney's characterization of Russia as America's top geopolitical foe and described Obama as a "very honest man."
THIRD-PARTY STRONGHOLDS
For its consistent and overwhelming opposition toward both major-party U.S. presidential candidates -- hostility that has only been inflamed by drone strikes and the Osama bin Laden -- Pakistan deserves a category of its own. A surprising result of the BBC's global opinion poll was that more Pakistanis supported Romney (14 percent) than Obama (11 percent). But the larger story is that the vast majority of Pakistanis didn't choose either candidate. UPI's survey arrived at a similar result, with 13 percent of Pakistani respondents backing Obama, 9 percent supporting Romney, and nearly 50 percent saying they didn't approve of either candidate or that there was no difference between them. This phenomenon isn't new in Pakistan, either. Seven percent of Pakistanis expressed confidence in Obama's leadership in Pew's 2012 survey, compared with 13 percent in 2009.
With headlines like "Poor choice for Americans" and "The US elections mean nothing for Pakistan," it's clear the Pakistani press agrees with public opinion. "The American President irrespective of party colours will do what they or the State Department, Pentagon or the CIA thinks is best for their country," Tughral Yamin recently observed in Pakistan's The News International. "We should concentrate on rebuilding our country in a manner that it is taken seriously by all incumbents of the White House in the times to come."
What are the broader lessons we can learn from all these statistics? According to UPI data, countries that enthusiastically support Obama tend to cite the candidates' competence, personality, and personal background as the main factors influencing their (theoretical) vote, while countries that are particularly down on the president or supportive of Romney tend to mention the candidates' policies toward their countries. More broadly, it appears that, with some exceptions, Israel is Romney country and Northern and Western Europe is Obama country, with a skeptical rest of the world in the middle. As for Pakistan? Perhaps they'll flock to Ron Paul.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-11-2 14:42
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