【国家利益 20131230】2014是拉丁美洲的复兴之年吗？

满仓

【中文标题】2014是拉丁美洲的复兴之年吗？
【原文标题】2014: Is This Latin America's Big Year?
【登载媒体】国家利益
【原文作者】Alexa L. McMahon
【原文链接】http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/2014-latin-americas-big-year-9629





二十世纪八十年代是拉丁美洲痛苦的时期，飙升的毒品暴力、经济混乱以及令人难以置信的债务危机都让我们南部的邻居陷入“失落的十年”。然而从2000年开始，局面发生了转变。得益于强劲的经济增长趋势和国际影响力的提升，2014年或许将是拉丁美洲有史以来最美好的一年。

拉丁美洲的经济增长在2014年必将是一个直线上升的趋势，其驱动力主要来自巴西、智利等国家，尤其是墨西哥。联合国称：“1月份发布的《世界经济预测2014》中提到，基于个人消费和生产的乐观迹象，这个地区的经济增长在2014年将达到3.6％，2015年将达到4.1％。”联合国拉丁美洲经济委员会预测，拉丁美洲的经济发展速度在2014年将位列全球第一。相比于前几年的爆发式增长，巴西增长速度放缓，但势头依然强劲。巴西财政部长吉多•曼特加在12月说，外国投资还在持续上升，据《华尔街日报》的报道，“11月份83亿美元的外国直接投资显示投资方依然对这个国家有较高的期望值，10月份的投资金额是54亿美元。”

当美国经济还在徘徊不前时，墨西哥经济前景一片大好，墨西哥将近80％的商品都销往美国。并且即将超过他的拉丁美洲邻居们，在2014年实现4％的增长。《福布斯》宣布墨西哥的“圣诞节在12月中旬提早到来”，因为参议院批准立法改革这个国家的能源机构，70年来首次允许外国投资石油的生产领域。据消费者新闻与商业频道的报道，“墨西哥能源部预测，到2018年，外国对墨西哥能源的直接投资将增长50％，达到100亿美元，将产生50万个就业岗位。”这是一项巨大的改革举措，将会帮助墨西哥在2014年发挥其巨大的经济潜能。

不甘落后的智利也取得了巨大的成就，它的经济发展在2014年也会对整个拉丁美洲起到推动的作用。美国传统基金会近期盛赞智利的经济发展：“它连续两年位列世界自由贸易国家排名前十位，在福布斯列举的7个热门新兴市场中位列第一。”智利在2013年的经济增长超过预期（5.5％），其矿物出口发展尤其迅猛。标准普尔在2013年把智利的债券评级定位AA级，与日本和中国平起平坐。

所有这些国家的成就都对全球经济和投资意向造成了深远的影响。拉丁美洲的发展带来的无数的收益，包括更高的生活质量和贫富差距的缩小。

经济增长还不是让拉丁美洲享受2014盛宴的唯一原因，我们南部的邻居们已经逐渐习惯了聚光灯下的生活。主办大型的体育赛事给他们带来了游客和媒体的关注，一些受人追捧的明星也让2014年格外精彩。

在体育方面，巴西将在2014年和2016年分别主办世界杯和奥运会。这两项赛事将吸引成千上万的海外游客，口袋里装着美元、人民币和欧元。除了经济利益，这两项国际体育赛事还将吸引国际媒体的关注，这将会帮助巴西和其它拉丁美洲国家在国际舞台上更加大胆地展示自身充满活力、富有的形象，就像欧洲国家和美国一样。据巴西体育部提供的信息，2014年世界杯会让巴西的经济增长700亿美元。短短两年之后的奥运会结束之后，巴西完全有可能成为世界第五大经济体。

旅游方面巴西也毫不落后。CNN评出的2014年十一大旅游圣地中，有4个位于拉丁美洲：巴拿马（运河开通100周年）、巴西、厄瓜多尔和哥斯达黎加。《世界之旅》连续第二年把秘鲁列为全球美食客的首选地。

拉丁美洲毫不犹豫地发挥媒体上的影响力。今年，《经济学人》宣布将会开辟为期一周的拉丁美洲专栏文章，读者相信专栏的内容与杂志的取向相吻合。今年占据了全球媒体大标题的一个著名拉丁美洲人是阿根廷人教皇方济各，最近被《时代周刊》评为年度人物。教皇方济各在天主教的低潮时期就职，他设法让这个教派与过去一个世纪相比变得更加亲近民众，提升了拉丁美洲人的整体形象。教皇取代了2013年去世的雨果•查韦斯成为最著名的拉丁美洲人。总而言之，拉丁美洲的2014是美好的一年。



原文：

The 1980s were unkind to Latin America. Surging drug violence, economic turmoil, and a staggering debt crisis all led to our southern neighbors’ “lost decade”. Yet since the 2000s, things have been looking—and going—up. In fact, thanks to its strong economic growth and growing international influence, 2014 has the potential to be Latin America’s best year yet.

Latin America’s economic growth will only increase in its upward trajectory in 2014, driven by countries such as Brazil, Chile and particularly Mexico. According to the U.N., “Based on promising signs of private consumption and manufacturing, the region will see [expected] growth rates of 3.6 in 2014 and 4.1 percent in 2015, according to World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014, a report that launches in January.” The U.N. Economic Commission on Latin America forecasts that Latin-American Economic development will be the highest of all global regions for 2014. Brazil is slowing down compared to its explosive performance in recent years, but still very strong. Brazilian finance minister Guido Mantega said in December that foreign direct investment continues to be robust and, according to the Wall Street Journal, “pointed to $8.3 billion in foreign direct investment posted in November as a strong signal investors continued to favor the country. In October, the figure was $5.4 billion.”

At a time when America is struggling, it is actually the reason for huge growth and profits in Mexico, with nearly 80 percent of Mexican goods currently exported to the United States. Mexico is slated to surpass most of its Latin American neighbors and grow nearly 4 percent next year. Forbes declared that for Mexicans “Christmas arrive[d] early” in mid December, when the Mexican Senate approved a legislative measure that reforms the country’s energy sector and for the first time in seventy years allows foreign investment and production-sharing agreements in Mexican oil. According to cnbc, “the Mexico Department of Energy estimates that foreign direct investment in the sector will rise by 50 percent by 2018, to $10 billion, and that 500,000 jobs will be created in the process.” This is a major reform and will only help Mexico achieve its full economic potential in 2014.

Not to be outdone, Chile is also making significant and important economic strides that will boost Latin America in 2014. The Heritage Foundation recently hailed Chilean economic advances, “Making it onto the 2013 Index of Economic Freedom’s list of top 10 freest countries in the world for the second year in a row, Chile was also ranked No. 1 on Forbes India’s list of 7 Hottest Emerging Markets.” Chile grew faster than predicted this year (5.5 percent) and has managed their mining exports so spectacularly that S&P upgraded Chile’s bond rating to AA in early 2013, putting it on par with Japan and China.

All of these countries are making a significant impact on the global economy and the strength of investment and growth in Latin America is reaping great dividends, including a better quality of life and a lessening income gap between the rich and poor.

Yet this growth alone is not the only dealmaker for 2014 being a great one for LatAm. Our neighbors to the South are enjoying something of a spotlight moment in their global influence more generally. Their hosting of prominent sporting events, increased tourism and media coverage, and popular public figures are all contributing to making 2014 a banner year.

On the sporting front, Brazil is hosting the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016. Both of these events are expected to draw hundreds of thousands of overseas tourists with their dollars, yuan and euros in tow. Any economic benefits, which are not always certain, aside, both international sporting events command worldwide media attention, which will help Brazil, and Latin America more broadly, brand itself on the global stage as vibrant and culturally rich a place as any in Europe or the United States. If those financial benefits do materialize, at least for the World Cup, it’s certainly no small thing. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Sports, Brazil’s economy is forecasted to grow by over $70 billion as a result of hosting the 2014 FIFA World Cup, and Brazil is projected to be the world’s fifth largest economy by the time they host the Olympics in just two short years.

With regards to tourism, Brazil doesn’t have the market cornered. Four of CNN’s eleven top places to travel in 2014 are in Latin America: Panama (100th anniversary of the canal), Brazil, Ecuador and Costa Rica all shine. The World Travel awards have also recognized Peru for the second year in a row for being the top pick for global gastronauts in search of excellent eats.

Latin America’s growing influence is evident in the media as well; just a few days ago the Economist announced that it is starting a weekly Latin America column, and readers are already suggesting column names in line with the magazine’s bent. A prominent Latin American who has been getting some important media coverage all year is Argentine Pope Francis, recently named Time’s person of the year. Assuming the papacy at a pretty low time for Catholicism, Pope Francis has managed to make his religion more accessible and popular with the masses than any time in the last one hundred years and raised the profile of Latin America in doing so. It doesn’t hurt that the popular Pope has unseated Hugo Chavez as the most prominent Latin American, following the latter’s death this year. All in all, things are looking up for Latin America next year, and as they’ve shown in multiple avenues, the sky’s the limit.

Pentium_5

Yeah, big year for latinos, really, really big year for them, no bullshit.
嗯，对拉丁美洲人是好年景，真真是他们的好年景，不唬你。

S & P is no big deal. We'd better see what it said in the past.
标准普尔没啥稀奇的。我们最好回过头看看过去它都说了些什么。

paoding

拉丁美洲，好像就是美国以南的美洲的意思吧，这个提法其实明显不如门罗说法高明的了、、、

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