【皮尤调查 20130718】美国与中国：第四章，美中制衡

满仓

【中文标题】美国与中国：第四章，美中制衡
【原文标题】Chapter 4. Global Balance of Power
【登载媒体】皮尤调查
【原文链接】http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/07/18/united-states-and-china-the-image-of-the-globes-two-superpowers/


全球公众普遍认为美中实力的天平在向中国倾斜。尽管美国依然被大多数人认为是全球经济霸主，但是越来越多的人说中国经济实力更强，尤其是在欧洲和美洲。很多人还认为中国终将超越美国，成为世界首屈一指的超级大国。

非洲和拉丁美洲人喜欢中国的影响力。在非洲，大部分人说中国和美国都对他们的国家和经济有巨大的影响力，而且认为这是正面的影响力。在拉丁美洲，尽管美国依然被视为当的主导力量，但是很多人说中国的影响力更让他们受益。在亚洲，参与调查的公众对于世界两个超级大国的看法有很大分歧。

美国被认为是全球经济第一强国



22个参与调查的国家中大部分受访者说美国的经济实力全球第一，8个国家说中国的经济实力更强，剩下的9个国家态度不明确。不同地区的态度差异显著。

北美和欧洲的大部分国家都认为中国的经济实力最强，希腊是唯一一个半数以上人说美国经济更强的国家。美国民众对于经济霸主地位的看法依然两极分化——44％的说中国，39％的人说美国。

中东国家的看法不一。大部分土耳其人和以色列人说美国是全球经济领袖，大部分约旦人说是中国。这个地区的其它国家的意见各有千秋。

其它国家一致的观点都是美国领导全球经济。在拉丁美洲，大部分国家的半数以上受访者都推崇美国，委内瑞拉是唯一一个态度不明朗的国家，38％的人说是美国，32％ 说是中国。

在非洲，几乎所有国家的至少一半受访者认为美国经济世界第一，只有南非持这种观点的人不到一半（46％），但认为中国经济第一的人数更少（26％）。

即使亚太地区的公众也认为美国是全球经济的领袖。日本、菲律宾和韩国的大部分受访者推崇美国，中国也是如此（46％认为美国，30％认为中国）。只有澳大利亚人更倾向于他们亚洲的邻居（28％认为美国，61％认为中国）。



对中国经济实力的信心在过去几年中随着中国经济的增长而增长。在2008年和2013年参与调查的20个国家中，2008年有20％的受访者说中国经济实力最强，这个数字在今天上升到34％。认为美国经济最强的百分比从47％下降到41％。

变化最大的地区是欧洲、美国、澳大利亚和黎巴嫩。这些国家中认为中国主导全球经济的百分比在过去5年中增长了大约20个百分点。

大部分人说中国将超越美国成为全球超级力量



无论哪个国家被认为是当今世界的经济引擎，很多人都相信中国终将取代美国成为世界霸主，如果它还没有的话。只有6个国家的大多数受访者认为中国永远不会取代美国的位置。

欧洲人再一次明确表示，他们相信中国已经或即将取代美国，成为世界霸主，大部分欧洲国家的至少一半受访者持此观点。

大部分加拿大人也认为中国已经或即将成为世界霸主。美国人的观点相对中庸，认为中国将要取代美国和永远不会取代美国的受访者各占47％。

其它4个参与调查地区的公众基本上认为中国会取代美国，成为世界霸主，尽管持这种观点的人数并未具有压倒性优势。在亚太区，至少一半的澳大利亚、中国、韩国和巴基斯坦受访者说中国已经或者即将成为世界霸主，而日本和菲律宾的大多数人认为美国会延续它的地位。印度尼西亚和马来西亚公众的意见不统一。

在拉丁美洲的7个国家中，有5个国家的大部分受访者认为中国已经或者即将取代美国世界霸主的地位。萨尔瓦多人则认为美国会依然统治世界，巴西人的观点不明朗。

非洲民众对于中国的优势地位不大有信心。肯尼亚、南非和尼日利亚的大部分受访者说中国已经或者即将取代美国的位置，大部分乌干达人认为美国的地位没有受到威胁，加纳和塞内加尔民众持两种观点的人数相当。

中东地区民众没有形成一致的观点。埃及和黎巴嫩的大部分受访者说美国会延续自己的地位；巴勒斯坦人和突尼斯人更愿意相信中国的崛起；土耳其人、约旦人和以色列人不确定未来世界霸主宝座的归属。

对于经济统治地位的问题，相比于2008年，今天有更多的人说中国已经或者即将取代美国的位置。最大的变化来自欧洲，比如波兰，今天认为中国是下一个经济霸主的百分比比5年前上升了17个百分点。在美国，2008年有36％的受访者认为中国将超越美国，今天这个数字是47％。黎巴嫩（15）、南非（14）和印度尼西亚（12）也出现了两位百分点的变化。

美国和中国在拉丁美洲的影响力



中国人对拉丁美洲国家的投资在过去几年有显著的增长，中国现在与美国和欧盟并列成为这个地区最大的贸易伙伴。尽管如此，拉丁美洲国家的大部分民众依然认为美国比中国对他们的国家和经济产生了更大的影响力。

几乎所有拉丁美洲国家至少一半的受访者说美国对他们国家事务有比较大影响力，很少有人说中国起到了同样的作用。唯一的例外是委内瑞拉，持两种观点的人数几乎相等。

对于美国人和中国人对他们国家经济的具体影响的问题，公众的态度基本一致。参与调查的大部分国家至少一半的受访者认为美国对他们国家的经济影响很大，包括85％的萨尔瓦多人和84％的巴西人，认为中国起到同样作用的人数比较少。委内瑞拉再次成为一个例外，47％的人认为美国对他们国家的经济有影响，57％的人认为影响来自中国。



尽管人们认为美国比中国有更强大的影响力，但是中国的影响力在大部分国家更加正面。在委内瑞拉、阿根廷、玻利维亚和智利的那些认为两个超级大国对本国有强大影响力的人群中，大部分人都说中国的影响是件好事，而美国的不是。

例如，认为中国对本国有影响的阿根廷人中，27％认为影响是好的，19％认为美国的影响是好的。经济层面的差异更大，42％的人说中国对阿根廷经济有正面影响，19％的人说美国对经济有正面影响。委内瑞拉人尤其认为中国比美国的影响更好。

巴西人和墨西哥人对此持类似的观点，认为美国对本国有重大影响的巴西人中有48％说影响是好的，46％的人说中国的影响是好的。在墨西哥，拥美和拥中的百分比分别是35％和33％。

萨尔瓦多是唯一一个认为美国的影响好于中国的影响的国家，但是认为中国有强大影响力的人群中，超过一半的人说中国的影响力是好的。



尽管他们喜欢中国的影响力，但是拉丁美洲的大部分受访者认为与美国或者两个世界超级大国都保持友好的关系更重要，很少与人说中国是比美国更重要的盟友。

萨尔瓦多、墨西哥和巴西的大部分受访者认为与北部邻居保持好关系比靠近中国更重要。

智利人和阿根廷人的态度不一致，三分之一的智利人认为美国的盟友关系更重要，32％ 人认为应该与美国和中国同事保持好关系。阿根廷人平均选择了美国、中国和双方。玻利维亚的大部分受访者认为与两个超级大国同时保持好关系更重要。

认为与中国保持好关系更重要的委内瑞拉人多过其它拉丁美洲国家，将近四成委内瑞拉人说与中国保持好关系更重要，三分之一的人倾向于同时与美国和中国保持好关系，只有19％的人认为美国的盟友关系更重要。

美国和中国在非洲的影响力



中国在过去几年中加大了在非洲的经济活动力度，这确保了它是这一地区最大贸易伙伴的地位。非洲公众似乎认可中国的努力，6个参与调查国家的大部分受访者都说中国对他们的国家有强大的影响力。

尽管如此，大部分受访者都认为美国比中国有更大的影响力。乌干达人最明显地表达出美国对这个国家重大影响力的观点，70％的人说美国会造成影响，54％的说中国会造成影响。

在经济层面上，非洲的大部分受访者却认为美国和中国的影响力相当。例如，82％的肯尼亚人说美国对本国的经济条件有重大的影响，对中国持这种观点的人数与此类似。其它国家的大部分受访者也对这两个国家持类似观点。但是乌干达认为美国（70％）比中国（55％）的影响力更强大。



非洲民众认为美国和中国对他们国家的影响都是正面的。在那些认为美国对本国有重大影响力的人群中，大部分人都认为美国的影响是正面的，对中国的态度也是如此。

尼日利亚人认为中国的影响力比美国更正面，南非人更愿意说美国的影响力比中国更正面。



南非人似乎说不清楚和谁保持盟友关系更重要，乌干达是唯一一个国家半数以上的人说美国比中国更重要。

塞内加尔（40％）和加纳（38％）认为美国更重要，但是这两个国家也有大约三成的受访者说美国和中国都重要。

南非人的意见主要分为美国更重要（30％）以及两个超级大国都重要（29％）。肯尼亚人的态度几乎平等倾向于美国（37％）和中国（32％）。

尼日利亚是非洲国家中唯一一个倾向与中国保持亲密关系的国家（37％），尽管如此，仍有三分之一的人认为应当与两国都保持关系。

美国和中国在亚洲的影响力



尽管在地理位置上靠近中国，但是东南亚和南亚国家并不认为中国比美国对他们的国家有更强大的影响力。菲律宾人和巴基斯坦人倾向于认为美国比中国对他们的国家影响更大，印度尼西亚人和马来西亚人认为美中影响力相当。

亚洲民众在经济方面的观点稍有不同。马来西亚人认为中国（72％）对他们国家经济的影响大于美国（63％），有少数巴基斯坦人认为两个国家都对本国经济没有影响（中国41％、美国44％）。

印度尼西亚说美国和中国对本国经济影响的程度差不多（中国75％、美国72％），而菲律宾人更愿意相信美国（89％）比中国（69％）对本国经济的影响程度更大。



马来西亚人和巴基斯坦人倾向于说中国的影响好于美国。例如，在那些认为美国对本国有强大影响力的人中，只有5％的巴基斯坦人认为美国的影响力是正面的，而87％的人认为中国的影响力是正面的。马来西亚人的分歧没有这么严重，但依然倾向于中国。印度尼西亚人对两个超级大国影响力的评价相当，而菲律宾人更倾向于美国。



当被问到与哪个国家保持密切的关系更重要，巴基斯坦人一边倒地选择中国（67％），菲律宾人选择美国（77％），至少一半的印度尼西亚和马来西亚人认为应当与双方都保持密切关系。

中国另一边的邻居，日本人和韩国人普遍选择美国。澳大利亚人的态度不大统一，40％的人说与美国的关系更重要，33％的人说与中国的关系更重要。



原文：

Publics around the world believe the balance of power between the U.S. and China is tipping in favor of China. While the U.S. is still viewed as the dominant economy by most, people are increasingly likely to say China is the world’s leading economic power, especially in Europe and America. Many global publics also think China will eventually eclipse the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower.

People in Africa and Latin America welcome China’s influence. In Africa, majorities say China and the U.S. have a great deal or fair amount of influence on their country and their economy, and they view this impact positively. In Latin America, while the U.S. is still described as the dominant player in the region, many say China’s influence is more beneficial. In Asia, the publics surveyed hold widely different opinions of the two world powers.

U.S. Viewed as World’s Top Economy

In 22 of the 39 countries polled, pluralities or majorities say the U.S. is the world’s leading economic power. In eight countries, the publics are more likely to say China. And in the remaining nine, opinion is divided between the two world powers. Attitudes vary considerably by region.

In most of the countries surveyed in North America and Europe, China is seen as the strongest economy. Greece is the only country in these two regions where at least half say the U.S. The American public continues to be roughly split over which country is the dominant economic power – 44% say China and 39% name the U.S.

In the Middle East, attitudes are generally divided. A majority of Turks and Israelis think the U.S. is the global economic leader, while a plurality of Jordanians say China. In the other countries surveyed in the region, opinion is split between the two.

Elsewhere around the world, the consensus is that the U.S. is the leading economy. In Latin America, pluralities or majorities in most countries say the U.S. Venezuela is the only nation surveyed in the region where the public is split – 38% say the U.S. and 32% name China.

In Africa, at least half in nearly every country surveyed choose the U.S. as the dominant global economy. Slightly less than half in South Africa (46%) say the U.S., but only 26% name China.

Even in the Asia/Pacific region, publics tend to say America is the leading economic power. Broad majorities in Japan, the Philippines and South Korea name the U.S. and a plurality of the Chinese agree (46% U.S. vs. 30% China). Only the Australians are more likely to say their regional neighbor is the world’s strongest economy (28% U.S. vs. 61% China).

Belief in China’s economic prowess has increased over the past few years along with China’s growing economy. Among the 20 countries surveyed in both 2008 and 2013, a median of 20% said China was the world’s leading economic power in 2008; that has risen to 34% today. The median percentage naming the U.S. has dropped from 47% to 41%.

The change has been particularly large across Europe and in the U.S., as well as in Australia and Lebanon. In these countries, the percentage naming China as the dominant economy increased by roughly 20 percentage points or more over the past five years.

Most See China Replacing U.S. as Superpower

Regardless of which country is seen as the economic powerhouse today, many publics believe China will eventually replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower, if it has not already done so. In just six of the 39 countries surveyed do pluralities or majorities say China will never replace the U.S.

Europeans again stand out for their belief that China has eclipsed or will eclipse the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower. At least half in most European countries surveyed hold this view.

A majority of Canadians also think China has or will become the world’s superpower. Meanwhile, Americans are evenly divided – 47% believe China will replace the U.S. or has already done so, while an equal percentage says China will never do so.

In the other four regions surveyed, publics generally believe China will replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower, though opinion is somewhat more split. In the Asia/Pacific region, at least half of Australians, Chinese, South Koreans and Pakistanis say China will or has become the dominant global power, while majorities in Japan and the Philippines believe the U.S. will retain its status. Publics in Indonesia and Malaysia are divided.

In Latin America, pluralities or more in five of the seven countries surveyed say China will replace, or has already replaced, the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower. Salvadorans are more likely to say the U.S. will continue to be the dominant global power, while the Brazilians are divided.

African publics are somewhat less certain of China’s ascendancy. Of the six countries surveyed in the region, pluralities in Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria say China will replace the U.S. or already has. In Uganda, a plurality believes the U.S. will remain the leading superpower. And the publics in Ghana and Senegal are almost evenly split.

There is no consensus in the Middle East on this question. Half or more in Egypt and Lebanon say the U.S. will continue to be the world’s superpower. Palestinians and Tunisians, meanwhile, are more likely to say China is on the rise. Turks, Jordanians and Israelis are uncertain as to which country will be the leading power in years to come.

As with the topic of economic dominance, more people today than in 2008 say China will replace or already has replaced the U.S. as the world’s superpower. Some of the biggest changes are in Europe, such as in Poland, where the percentage who believe China will become the next superpower jumped 17 percentage points over the past five years. In the United States, 36% in 2008 said China would eclipse the U.S. and 47% say the same today. Double-digit increases have also occurred in Lebanon (+15), South Africa (+14) and Indonesia (+12).

U.S. and Chinese Influence in Latin America

Chinese investment in and trade with Latin American countries has increased greatly over the past few years. China is now one of the largest trading partners for the region, in addition to the U.S. and the European Union. Even so, most publics in the region continue to say that the U.S. exerts greater influence than China over their country and their economy.

Roughly half or more in each Latin American country surveyed say that the U.S. has a great deal or fair amount of influence on the way things are going in their nation. Fewer say the same about China. The sole exception is Venezuela, where equal percentages think the U.S. and China have an influence in their nation.

A similar pattern holds when publics are asked specifically about American and Chinese influence on their country’s economy. In most countries surveyed, at least half think the U.S. has a great deal or fair amount of influence on economic conditions in their nation, including 85% in El Salvador and 84% in Brazil. Fewer think China has a similar level of influence. The one exception again is Venezuela – 47% think the U.S. has an impact on their nation’s economy, while 57% say China does.

Although the U.S. is generally seen as having a greater impact than China, China’s influence is viewed more positively in most countries. In Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, those who believe the two world powers have a great deal or fair amount of influence are more likely to say that China’s influence is a good thing than to say the same about the U.S.

For example, 27% of Argentines who say China has an impact on their country think this influence is good; just 19% review American influence positively. When it comes to the economy, the gap is even larger – 42% say China has a positive impact on the Argentine economy, compared with 19% for the U.S. Venezuelans are particularly likely to rate China’s influence more positively than America’s.

Brazilians and Mexicans hold similar opinions of the role the U.S. and China play in their nation. In Brazil, 48% of those who say the U.S. has a great deal or fair amount of influence on their country think this influence is good, and 46% say the same about China. In Mexico, the comparable percentages are 35% for the U.S. and 33% for China.

Salvadorans are the only ones who see America’s impact on their country in a much more positive light than China’s. Nonetheless, at least half of those in El Salvador who say China has an impact on their country and their economy think such Chinese influence is good.

Despite their preference for China’s influence, most publics in Latin America think it is more important either to have strong ties with the U.S. or to maintain a good relationship with both world powers. Few say China is a more important ally than the U.S.

Majorities in El Salvador, Mexico and Brazil think a strong relationship with their northern neighbor is more important than close ties with China.

Chileans and Argentines are more divided. In Chile, a third think the U.S. is a more important ally while 32% want strong ties with both the U.S. and China. The Argentine public is nearly equally split between choosing the U.S., China or both. Meanwhile, a plurality in Bolivia prioritizes a good relationship with both world powers.

Venezuelans lean more toward having a good relationship with China than do other Latin American publics. Nearly four-in-ten (38%) say it is more important to have strong ties with China, while a third think both China and the U.S. Just 19% prioritize having the U.S. as an important ally.

U.S. and Chinese Influence in Africa

China has also increased its economic presence in Africa over the past decade, establishing itself as the region’s largest trading partner. African publics appear to recognize China’s efforts – among the six nations surveyed, broad majorities in most countries say China has a great deal or fair amount of influence in their nation.

Nonetheless, most of the publics surveyed see the U.S. as somewhat more influential than China. Ugandans are the most likely to see a larger American influence on their country’s direction: 70% say the U.S. has an impact, compared with just 54% for China.

When it comes to the economy, however, most publics surveyed in Africa think the U.S. and China have similar levels of influence. For example, 82% of Kenyans say America has a great deal or fair amount of influence on economic conditions in their country; an equal percentage believes the same about China. Roughly equal majorities in the other countries say the same about the two world powers. Ugandans, however, are much more likely to think America (70%) has an impact on their economy than to say China does (55%).

African publics are positive about the influence both the U.S. and China have on their countries and their economies. Among those who say the U.S. has a great deal or fair amount of impact, broad majorities in every country see this influence as positive. Clear majorities in nearly every country say the same about China.

Still, Nigerians are more likely to view China’s impact, rather than America’s, as good. South Africans, meanwhile, are somewhat more likely to rate American influence as positive than to say the same about Chinese influence.

Among African publics, there is generally not a clear winner in terms of who they see as a more important ally. Uganda is the only country where at least half say it is more important to establish strong ties with the U.S. than with China.

About four-in-ten in Senegal (40%) and Ghana (38%) also prioritize a good relationship with the U.S., but roughly three-in-ten or more in both countries say it is important to establish strong ties with both the U.S. and China.

South Africans are divided between establishing strong ties with the U.S. (30%) and prioritizing alliances with both world powers (29%). Kenyans are nearly equally split between choosing the U.S. (37%) and choosing China (32%) as the more important ally.

Nigerians are the most likely among the African publics surveyed to see strong ties with China as more important (37%). Nonetheless, a third prioritize an alliance with both countries.

U.S. and Chinese Influence in Asia

Despite their proximity to China, in Southeast and South Asia, publics do not believe China has a greater impact on their countries than the U.S. Filipinos and Pakistanis are more likely to say the U.S. has a great deal or fair amount of influence on the way things are going in their country than to think China does. Indonesians and Malaysians see the level of American and Chinese influence as relatively equal.

Asian publics’ perceptions are slightly different when it comes to American and Chinese economic influence. Malaysians are somewhat more likely to say China affects their economy (72%) than to say the U.S. does (63%). Few Pakistanis say either country has an impact on their nation’s economic conditions (41% for China and 44% for U.S.).

Nearly equal percentages of Indonesians say the two world powers have an influence on their economy (75% for China and 72% for U.S.). Filipinos, meanwhile, are more likely to believe the U.S. (89%) has a great deal or fair amount of influence on their economy than to say the same about China (69%).

Malaysians and Pakistanis are much more likely to say China’s influence is good than to say the same about the U.S. For example, among those who say the U.S. has a great deal or fair amount of influence on their country, just 5% of Pakistanis say this influence is positive, compared with 87% who rate China’s influence as good. The gap is smaller, though still in China’s favor, in Malaysia. Indonesians rate each world power’s influence relatively equally, while Filipinos are much less positive toward China than toward the U.S.

When asked which world power is a more important ally, Pakistanis overwhelmingly choose China (67%). Filipinos are much more likely to choose the U.S. (77%). And at least half in Indonesia and Malaysia prioritize a good relationship with both world powers.

Among China’s other regional neighbors, Japanese and South Koreans are much more likely to value strong ties with the U.S. than with China. Australians are somewhat more divided – 40% say it is more important to have the U.S. as an ally, while 33% say the same about China.

Pentium_5

但愿我们不要把先人们上世纪五十年代至七十年代期间在非洲打下的群众基础都给吃光了。