Forget diversification. Jim Rogers has identified the world’s next great investment opportunity, and in a recent interview the famed guru said he is willing to put all his considerable fortune there.
吉姆罗杰斯似乎忘记了 “不要把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里”这句话，他已经确定了世界上的下一个伟大的投资机会，并且在最近的一次采访中，这位著名的大师提到他希望把所有财产都投资那里。
So where is the planet’s best place to commit cash? According to Rogers, it’s the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Yes, that’s the formal name of what the world knows more simply as North Korea.
那么哪里才是这个星球上最适合投资的地方？用罗杰斯的话来说，那就是朝鲜民主主义人民共和国。是的，这就是那个更广为人知的北朝鲜的正式名称。
Rogers has also been talking about farming as a terrific investment in recent days. As he said at the end of last month to Simon Jack on BBC Radio 4’s “Today” show, “If you want to make a lot of money in the future—which many people do—you should learn to drive a tractor.”
最近，罗杰斯一直在说（朝鲜的）农业是一个多么了不起的投资。上个月末，他在BBC四台的“今天”节目中对杰克西蒙说道，“如果你想像很多人那样，在未来赚到一大笔钱，那你应该去学会开拖拉机”。
Combining both statements, you would think Rogers believes that the very best opportunity in the world’s No. 1 hotspot is agriculture. There are two problems if you try to put your money into a North Korean farm, however. First, the DPRK, as North Koreans call their horrific state, is so primitive that most farming is done without mechanical devices. If you want to till the land there, you will need an ox. Second, you are not permitted to invest in North Korean farms.
结合他的这些话，你应该能知道罗杰斯认为这个世界头号投资热点（指朝鲜）的最好机遇便是农业。但是想在朝鲜投资，还有两个困难。第一个便是朝鲜民主主义人民共和国（DPRK，这也是北朝鲜人对他们那个恐怖国度的称呼）非常落后、原始，那里的农业完全不使用机械作业。没有一头牛，你寸步难行。第二，那里不允许你投资农业。
In fact, it’s hard to invest in North Korea at all. The Pyongyang regime is wary of giving foreigners too much influence, so it severely limits what outsiders—especially non-Chinese—may buy or otherwise invest in.
实际上，在朝鲜投资本身就非常困难。平壤政府严格限制外来的人，尤其是中国之外的人在本国的收购或投资，因为他们担心这会给国外的人带来太大的影响力。
Nonetheless, Rogers, who apparently believes in first-mover advantage, is worried that the Chinese and Russians will get too much of a head start. His idea is to get in on the ground floor, before unification of North and South Korea. “What you’ll have is a country of 70 odd million people with cheap, educated, disciplined labor in the North, vast natural resources . . . with a big capital pool and management capability in the South,” he says. “It will be a powerhouse.”
尽管如此，十分重视先发优势的罗杰斯仍担心中国人和俄罗斯人会抢占太大的先机。他的想法是在朝鲜和韩国统一之前抢占先机。“你将拥有的是朝鲜7000万人口，其中包含廉价、受过良好教育、训练有素的劳动力，以及韩国大量的自然资源、资本以及管理人才”。“这将是一个强大的国家”。
Rogers is in fact looking at two North Korean sectors, resources and commodities, but Chinese companies have already sewed up mining with either investments in mines or long-term purchase contracts, gobbling up almost all the North’s anthracite—they ended up with $1.37 billion of such coal last year—and taking $294.1 million of the North’s iron ore. They are also a sure bet to be the ones to exploit the North’s rare earth minerals as well. Unfortunately for Jim, there is almost no way in for Americans at this point.
罗杰斯实际上正在关注朝鲜的两个方面：资源和商品，但中国公司已经开始挖掘那里的矿产了，他们要么投煤矿，要么签订了长期的收购合同，几乎吞掉了朝鲜所有的无烟煤。去年他们拿下了13.7亿美元的煤和2.941亿美元的铁矿石。他们肯定还是朝鲜稀土资源的开发者。不幸的是，对于吉姆来讲，美国人在这方面几乎无能为力。
So what is the legendary investor doing? “I am trying to find some of the Chinese companies that are investing there,” he says. “They are putting a lot of money into the North.”
那这位传奇投资者要做什么？“我在努力寻找系那里的中国投资公司”，他说道。“他们正在朝鲜进行大规模投资”。
Yes, they are. And to see how they’re doing, we should look at Rason, the port where the Tumen River empties into the Sea of Japan, known as the “East Sea” to the Koreans. That’s where Beijing’s state enterprises, the first-mover investors, have concentrated their non-mining projects.
是的，确实如此。要看这些公司都是怎么做的，我们应该去看看罗先市，这是图们江在日本海（被朝鲜称为东海）的入海口。在那里，集中了中国国企——第一批投资者的非矿产项目。
Rason now “looks like a giant Chinatown,” but Chinese investments are not doing well. China’s “five star” hotel in Rason is “empty” and the port there is “quiet” although the city by now should have developed, in the normal course of things, into a bustling commercial hub. China’s four-lane expressway leading to the port has “thin traffic.” A government official from the Chinese province nearest to Rason—Jilin—says Chinese businesses are losing confidence in the city.
罗先市现在“看起来像一个大型中国城镇”，但中国的投资者们经营的并不好。按照正常的进程，这里应该已经发展为一个繁华的商业中心，但是中国在罗先的五星级酒店“空无一人”，整个港口也是“一片寂静”。通往罗安的四车高速公路上也是车辆稀少。一位来自吉林的政府官员说到，中国企业正在逐渐对这个城市失去信心。
Rogers will undoubtedly be happy to know that China’s small-scale investors, who have put their money into restaurants, shops, and factories, are doing better than large state businesses. In many respects, today’s North Korea resembles China at the beginning of its reform period, so it should come as no surprise that plucky Chinese entrepreneurs, who learned how to bribe, outwit, and otherwise tame China’s officials long ago, are now doing the same thing in the North, building profitable niche businesses in the process.
罗杰斯显然很乐意看到那些投资餐馆、商店和工厂的小投资者经营的比中国的大型国企要好。现在朝鲜在很多方面都类似于改革开放初期的那个中国，因此那些学会了如何贿赂和智取的勇敢的中国企业家和平庸的中国官员都在做着和那时一样的事情也就不足为奇了。在这个过程中，他们都在建立能够带来利益的企业。
“This place is just like China in the 1980s,” says Hao Ze, a successful Chinese investor, who owns a North Korean car parts factory, restaurant, and spa and who is now putting the finishing touches on a deal to mine rutile, an ingredient in paints and plastics. “It’s highly risky, but it’s also highly profitable if you seize the opportunity.”
“这个地方像上世纪80年代的中国”，一个成功的投资人郝泽（音译）说道，他在朝鲜拥有一家汽车配件厂、餐馆和水疗中心，并在完成一笔金红石矿的交易，这种矿石是涂料和塑胶的一种成分。“这个投资风险很高，但抓住机会的话，收益同样也很高”。
Rogers is all about seizing opportunities, but as a practical matter he cannot do business the traditional Chinese way. Yet that does not mean he is letting North Korea pass him by. He has, after all, already made an investment of sorts. “Coins and stamps are the only way I can invest in North Korea,” Rogers has said. Last March, he bought most of the gold and silver coins that a North Korean company offered in Singapore. In 2012, he scooped up all the North Korean coins held for sale.
罗杰斯正在抓住一切机遇，但实际问题是，他不能走中国那种传统路子。但这并不意味着他束手无策。毕竟他已经做过了各种各样的投资。“货币和邮票是我在朝鲜唯一能做的投资”，罗杰斯说道。去年三月，他在新加坡购买了一家朝鲜公司几乎所有的金币和银币。2012年，他挖到了所有朝鲜待售的货币。
Yet these purchases should not exactly inspire confidence in the DPRK. Said Rogers, “At some point down the line, North Korea will cease existing as a country. Then the value of the coins will go up.”
So, after all is said and done, the star investor looks like he is right. There is money to be made in North Korea, at least one way or another.
但是这些收购不能看作是对朝鲜政权的信心。罗杰斯说道，“在以后的某个时候，朝鲜不再作为一个国家时，这些货币的价值将会提升”。
因此，说来说去，这位明星投资人看上去是对的。在朝鲜，总有一些方式是能够赚到钱的。
狗仔卡
发表于 2014-3-28 12:08
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楼主
发表于 2014-3-28 12:19
