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【中文标题】中国萎靡不振的经济 ：强壮如牛？ 【原文标题】China's flagging economy：Strong as an ox? 【原文链接】http://www.economist.com/node/12987564 【正文】 China's annual GDP growth falls to 6.8%. Howmuch worse can it get? 中国年度GDP增长下降至6.8%。这还能变得多糟呢？
THE beast which gives its name to theChinese new year that begins on January 26th is meant to symbolise prosperitythrough fortitude and hard work, offering hope that China will soon regain its economicvigour. But an ox is often a castrated bull—which may be an apt description of China’seconomic pain. New figures show that China’s GDP growth fell to 6.8% inthe year to the fourth quarter, down from 9% in the third quarter and half its13% pace in 2007. Growth of 6.8% may still sound pretty robust, but it impliesthat growth was virtually zero on a seasonally adjusted basis in the fourthquarter. 2009年，中国农历春节开始于元月26号，这一年是牛年，牛在中国象征着通过坚毅不拔及辛勤劳作而获得的繁荣昌盛，这给中国带来了快速重获经济活力的希望。但是去势公牛通常是被阉割了的——这或许是对中国经济所面临的苦恼的一个恰当描述。新数据显示，中国GDP增长于今年第四季度下降到了6.8%，相较于第三季度下降了9%，相较于其在2007年13%的水平下降了一半。6.8%的增长，这或许听起来很强健，但这意味着那种增长在第四季度经季节性调整后，事实上是零增长。
Industrial production has slowed even moresharply, growing by only 5.7% in the 12 months to December, compared with an18% pace in late 2007. Thousands of factories have closed and millions ofmigrant workers have already lost their jobs. But there could be worse to come.Chinese exports are likely to drop further in coming months as world demandshrinks. Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC, forecasts that exports in the firstquarter could be 19% lower than a year ago. 2009 may well see the firstfull-year decline in exports in more than a quarter of a century. 工业产品下降更加剧烈，相较于2007年年末的18%的水平而言，工业产品在截至12月份的12个月里只增长了5.7%。成千上万的工厂关闭了，数百万农民工已经失业。但更糟糕的事还在后头。随着世界需求的减少，中国出口在未来数月里很有可能会进一步下降。屈宏斌是汇丰银行的一名经济学家，他预测，中国第一季度的出口可能会比前一年低19%。2009年，中国出口可能会面临25多年内的首次全年下降。
Economists have become gloomier about China’sprospects, with many now predicting GDP growth of only 5-6% in 2009, the lowestfor almost two decades. The most dismal view comes from Albert Edwards, atSociété Générale, a French bank, who thinks China may be sliding into outrightrecession. He points to a fall in electricity output of 6% in the year to thefourth quarter, down from average annual growth of 15% over the previous fiveyears. 经济学家们对中国的经济前景感到更悲观了，许多经济学家现在预测2009年中国GDP只会增长5-6%，是将近20年以来的最低水平。法国兴业银行的阿尔伯特·爱德华兹对中国经济最感凄凉，他认为中国可能会陷入完全衰退。他指出，中国发电量增长从前五年的15%的年均增长率下降到了今年第四季度的6%。
In the past, the growth in GDP andelectricity use have tended to move together (see chart). Mr Edwards reckons thata decline in electricity output may mean that GDP is falling, no matter whatthe official figures say. Equally worrying is the OECD’s leadingindicator of economic activity in China,which has plunged to its lowest level in its 26-year history, lower even thanduring the slump in 1989, the year of the Tiananmen Squareprotests and massacre. 过去，GDP增长和用电增长倾向于一起变动（见表）。爱德华兹认为，无论官方数据作何解释，发电量的下降或许意味着GDP的下降。同样令人担忧的是经合组织在中国经济活动上的前导指数，已经暴跌至其26年历史以来的最低水平，甚至比1989年萧条期期间更低，1989年发生了天安门广场事件。
This makes for a compelling story. But therelationship between GDP and electricity consumption has been distorted by theuneven nature of this slowdown. Energy-guzzling heavy industries, such as steeland cement, bore the brunt of China’sdownturn late last year. So it is not surprising that electricity use slumped. 这样的事引人注目。但是GDP和用电之间的关系被这次衰退的不稳定性扭曲了。去年年末，诸如钢铁和水泥这类耗能巨大的重工业给中国经济衰退造成了冲击。这样一来，用电下降就不足为奇了。
Moreover, too much weight may be given tothe declining exports, because it is often wrongly assumed that the slump in China’s growth has been caused mainly by acollapse in its exports to Americaand other rich economies. Yet in 2008 the fall in net exports (exports minusimports) accounted for less than half of its slowdown. More important was acollapse in housing construction, caused by the government’s efforts to deflatea potential bubble. This, in turn, reduced the demand for materials such assteel. So by the fourth quarter there had been a huge build-up in stocks,ex ACerbating the fall in production: steel output was 12% lower than a yearearlier. 而且，正在下滑的出口可能会受到更多重视，因为人们错误地认为，中国经济衰退主要是由于向美国及其它富有经济体的出口暴跌而引起的。而2008年净出口（出口减去进口）的下降，造成了一半的出口下降。更为重要的是，房屋建设业垮掉了，这是由于政府一直致力于消除潜在的经济泡沫。这转而减少了诸如钢铁之类的材料需求。因此到第四季度，库存已经出现巨大积累，这恶化了生产的下降：钢铁产量比一年前下降了12%。
GDP growth is likely to continue to fallduring the first half of 2009, sounding alarm bells among those who repeat theofficial mantra that China needs to grow by at least 8% a year to avoid socialunrest (even though that number has no sound economic basis). But there is goodreason to hope that by midyear the economy will perk up as destocking comes toan end and the government’s fiscal stimulus kicks in. 2009年上半年，GDP增长很有可能继续下滑，这向一些人发出了警示，这些人不断念叨着官方咒语，声称中国GDP每年至少需要增长8%，才能避免社会动荡（即使那个数字没有扎实的经济基础）。然而，我们依旧有很好的理由期待，截止今年年中，随着缩减储量结束，政府开始实施财政刺激政策，届时中国经济将会恢复增长。
China’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) packageof infrastructure spending, subsidies and tax cuts for businesses has beentrashed by many commentators as another “Chinese fake”. Most of it is not newmoney, they claim, and the central government will finance less than one-thirdof the planned spending; most of the rest will have to come from banks, whichin the current climate may be reluctant to lend. 中国四万亿元（5850亿美元）的一揽子基础设施支出、补贴以及商业减税措施已经遭到实况播音员们的谴责，他们将此视作另一个“中国赝品”。他们宣称，大多数资金并非是新资金，政府将会为低于三分之一的计划支出提供资金；剩下的大多数资金必须来自银行，而银行在当前的风气下可能会不愿意放款。
It is true that some of the extra spendinghad already been announced, but what matters for economic growth is how muchspending will actually increase this year. The answer is a lot. For example,JPMorgan forecasts that transport investment will expand by an impressive 70%in 2009. HSBC estimates a total spending boost of 6-7% of GDPover this year and next. 额外的支出确实已经公布了，但是对于经济增长而言，至关重要的是今年的支出能真正增长多少。答案是很多。例如，摩根大通预测，2009年交通投入将会大大增长70%。汇丰银行预测今年及明年，GDP总支出将会增长6-7%。
Since the November package, the governmenthas introduced other measures to support the economy. On January 21st itannounced extra spending of 850 billion yuan over three years to improve healthcare. From February rural residents will get a 13% rebate on purchases of goodssuch as refrigerators, TVs and washing machines. Consumer spending will bedented by job losses and smaller wage rises but has so far remained strong,with retail sales up by 18% in real terms in the year to December. Interestrates have also been cut five times since September and, much more important,controls on bank lending have been scrapped. To help the property sector,minimum down-payments have been reduced from 30-40% of a home’s value to 20%,the transaction tax has been waived for properties held for at least two years,and more public housing is to be built. 自从11月份实行一揽子计划以来，政府已经采取其它措施来支持经济。1月21号政府宣布，在三年多的时间里，将会花费8500亿元的额外支出来改善医疗保健。二月份起，农村居民在购买诸如电冰箱、电视机以及洗衣机之类的商品时，将会获得13%的折扣。消费支出将会受失业以及较低工资增长的影响而有所削减。但目前消费支出依旧强健，截止今年十二月份，零售销售额按实际计算（扣除物件因素）上升了18%。自从九月份起，已经进行了五次的利率削减，而且，更为重要的是，已经废除对银行贷款的控制。为了协助地产界，最低首期付款额已经从房屋价值的30-40%削减至20%，如果持有地产至少两年，那么可以免交交易税，另外，更多的公共住房将会建成。
Theall-too visible hoof 显而易见的牛蹄
Chris Wood, at CLSA, a brokerage, says theeffectiveness of the stimulus hinges on the extent to which China is now acapitalist economy. The more “capitalist” it is, the deeper the downturn now;the more it is still a command economy, the better the chance of recovery in2009. State-controlled firms, which account for one-third of industrial outputand almost half of all investment, have been “asked” not to cut jobs andcapital spending. All the big banks are state-owned and their chairmen areappointed by the government. If they get a phone call telling them to lendmore, they are likely to do so. 经纪业法国里昂证券的克里斯·伍德说，刺激政策的效力取决于中国资本主义经济的程度。中国经济月“资本主义化”，其衰退越严重；中国经济如果依旧只是指令性经济，那么其于2009年恢复的可能性更大。国营公司占据了工业产值的三分之一，占据了所有投资的几乎一半，这些公司被“要求”不能裁员、不能减少资本开支。所有的大银行都是国营的，而且它们的董事长都由政府任命。如果他们接到电话说要更多钱，那么他们很可能会照做。
Banks already seem to be following Beijing’s orders: totallending surged by 19% in the year to December. China is one of the few largeeconomies whose banking system has not been crippled by the global creditcrunch. Andy Rothman, also at CLSA, argues that “in China, there is only a creditcrunch when the political leadership wants one”. He believes the economy willrevive by midyear and achieve GDP growth of close to 8% for 2009 as a whole. 各银行似乎已经在执行北京的命令：到今年12月份为止，总放款已经飙升了19%。少数几大经济体的银行系统没有收到全球信贷危机的削弱，而中国是其中一个。安迪·罗斯曼也在法国里昂证券工作，他认为，“在中国，只有当政治领导想要有信贷危机时，信贷危机才会发生。”他认为到年中，中国经济将会恢复发展，并且，总的来说，2009年其GDP将会获得将近8%的增长。
The obvious concern is that althoughheavy-handed government meddling may be more effective than market-based toolsto pull an economy out of a deep downturn, it comes at a cost. Publicinvestment will inevitably include some wasteful spending, and politicallydirected lending could add to excess capacity in some sectors and create new badloans for banks. This may hobble the bull in the future. But first it needs toregain its virility. 一个很明显的问题是，虽然通过严厉的政府干预可能会比通过基于市场的工具来拉动深重衰退的经济更加有效，但这需要花费巨大的成本。公共投资将不可避免地会包括一些奢侈开支，而且，政治导向的放款会在一些部门增加产能过剩，并为银行带来新的不良贷款。这在未来可能会阻碍公牛的前行。但是，当务之急是它需要重获自身的活力。
Translate the following sentences into Chinese, payspecial attention to the delivery of figures. 1. It was a reminderthat waning global growth, expensive oil and Germany's increase in value addedtax by three percentage points to 19 percent on Jan.l could severely hamperexpansion in 2007. 1、全球经济增长逐渐减弱，油价昂贵，德国增值税在一月一日增长了三个百分点，达19%，这些会严重阻碍2007年的发展，这给人们发出了警示。
2. "I think theslowdown is a result of the government's macro-economic controls, indicating recentmonetary tightening and administrative measures are taking effect." “我认为经济衰退是政府宏观经济调控的结果，这体现出最近的货币紧缩及行政措施正在起效。”
3. The number of peopleworking or seeking work jumped by 20, 000, while the population able to workrose by 15, 000 in thequarter. 3、本季度在岗或正在找工作的人数增加了20000，而具备工作能力的人口于该季度增加了15000人。
4. Advantest, theworld's biggest maker of memory-chip testing equipment, forecast Monday that itsoperating profit would rise 67 percent over three years, helped by sales ofmachines that can be adjusted to check different types of semiconductors. 4、日本爱德万株式会社是世界上最大的内存条测试设备制造商，其于周一预测道，它的营业利润在三年多的时间里将会上升67%，这有赖于能够通过被调节来检测不同种类半导体的机器的销售额。
5. China imposes avalue-added tax of 17 percent on semiconductors but domestic producers can geta rebate of up to 14 percent. 5、中国对半导体增收了17%的增值税，但是国内产商可以获得高达14%的折扣。
6. Yangtze Power hasmore than doubled since its debut last November; ZTE has risen 39 pcrcent thisyear. 6、长江电力自从去年十一月份开张以来已经翻了一番；中兴通讯今年已经上升了39%。
7. Buoyed by recordconsumer spending and exports, the Thai economy is on tract to grow 6 percent thisyear, economists say. 7、经济学家称，由于受到前所未有的消费者开销及出口的刺激，泰国经济今年有望增长6%。
8. The cap on holdingsby a single overseas investor will be lifted to 20 pcrcent from 15 percent aspart of measures to help banks boost capital and sell shares to the public, LiuMingkang, head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said at a briefing inBeijing. 8、中国银行业监督管理委员会主席刘明康在北京的一次基本情况介绍会上称，单一海外投资者的上限控股将从15%提高至20%，这是协助银行充实资本及向公众销售股份的其中一项举措。
9. China's centralbank also announced a 27-basis point cut, to 1.62 percent effective on December21, in the interest rate it pays on excess bank reserves in an effort to "encouragefinancial institutions to improve the efficiency in fund utilization". 9、中央银行还宣布将其支付的超额银行准备金率下降27个基点，降至1.62%，该措施于12月21日起生效，旨在“鼓励金融机构提高资金利用率”。
10. Exports rose ayear-on-year 29 percent to US $69.9 billion in the first two months and importsjumped 42 percent to US $77.8 billion, according to the Muustry of CommerceWebsite. 10、根据商务部网站显示，出口在前两个月较上年同期上涨了29%，达699亿美元，而进口则上升了42%，达778亿美元。
11. Matsushita Electric, the world's biggestconsumer electronics maker, said last month that its fiscal second-quarterprofit rose 32 percent as sales of plasma display televisionsand digital cameras climbed. 11、松下电器是世界上最大的家用电子产品制造商，其于上月称，随着等离子显示器电视及数码相机的销售额有所攀升，财政第二季度的利润上涨了32%。
12.Year-on-year inflation in the Philippines is seen rising to 4.9 percent in December from4.5 percent in November, a poll of five analysts shows. 12、五名分析家的一份调查显示，菲律宾的通货膨胀与上年同期相比，已经从十一月份的4.5%上涨到了十二月份的4.9%。
13. Chinesebanks still have a total of 4.14 trillion yuan of bad loans, according to thegovernment, or more than lenders in Japan, whose $4.6 trillion economy is almost fourtimes larger. 13、根据政府统计，中国银行依旧存在4.14万亿元的坏账。日本银行的存在更多坏账，然而日本银行拥有4.6万亿美元资本，几乎是中国银行的四倍。
14. M2, the broadmeasure of money supply, rose by 20.4 percent on a year-on-year basis to 21.64trillion yuan ($2.6 trillion) at the end of November, which the central banknoted yesterday as "still on the fast side". 14、M2是货币供应量的一个广泛指标，于十一月月底较上年同期上升了20.4%，达21.64万亿元（2.6万亿元），昨天中央银行将此评论为“依旧增长较快”。
15. The cutsrecommended by Brussels are less, as apercentage of German Gross Domestic Product, than those being asked of France. Theyamount to €17billion,or $20 billion-roughly the size of the tax cut that Shroeder wants to moveforward to next year. 15、布鲁塞尔建议的削减比法国要求的更低，布鲁塞尔建议的削减只是德国国内生产总值的一个百分比而已。这些削减攀升至17亿里拉，大致200亿美元，这是施罗德意欲于下年达到的规模。
16. Kavasaki Heavyshares fell 3.5 percent to close at 112 yen.lts bonds can be converted intoshares at 182yen, a 63 percent premium. 16、川崎重工业株式会社股份下降了3.5%，跌至将至112日元。其债券可被转换成182日元的股份，63%的股金。
17. In a surveyconducted by Spherion in July last year, 51 percent of the 3, 000 workersquestioned said they wanted to leave the jobs, and 75 percent of that groupsaid they were likely to leave within a year. In1997, Morgan said, only 25percent of the respondents expressed a desire to move on. 17、思安去年六月份进行的一份调查显示，在受访的3000名工人中，有51%的人声称想辞职，而在这51%的人中又有75%的人说他们很有可能会在一年内辞职。1997年，摩根说，只有25%的受访者表示想辞职。
18. The Bank of England tickedrates downward a quarter percentage point last August in response to data thatshowed the blazing pace of housing-price increases was easing. Consumption alsofell as British households felt the pinch of previous rate increases. 18、英格兰银行也报告说道，去年八月份利率下降了25个百分点，这是对房价巨涨得到缓解的反应。随着英国家庭因之前利率增长而感到手头拮据，消费也下降了。 | 
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