【赫芬顿邮报 20140918】朝鲜之道

满仓

【中文标题】朝鲜之道
【原文标题】The Tao of North Korea
【登载媒体】赫芬顿邮报
【原文作者】John Feffer
【原文链接】http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-feffer/the-tao-of-north-korea_b_5841738.html?utm_hp_ref=china




你曾经看见过卫星拍摄的朝鲜半岛夜间照片。北部几乎一片黑暗，而南部则灯火灿烂。你或许会对节俭的朝鲜人脱帽致敬，他们为了拯救地球而节约用电！

但是当然，这并不是你真正得出的结论。夜间的地图应当是对我们直觉的视觉体现，它表现了两种截然不同的政治、经济和社会现状。朝鲜人民无知地生活在一个独裁环境中，被要求类似于集中营和拘留所那样的“熄灯”。而韩国人民就像我们一样，整晚吃喝玩乐。北边是古拉格style，而南边是江南style。

当然，朝鲜半岛的现状绝非这种非此即彼的描述，不要再把那里想象成截然分开的、中间用铁丝网隔开的两半。从某种意义上说，可以把朝鲜半岛想象成道教的阴阳图案：两个相互契合的图形，一个黑色、一个白色，每一个中间都有另外一个颜色的圆点。阴中有阳，阳中有阴。

阴与阳

半岛南部所包括的北部，当然是那些叛逃者。目前大约有2.5万名朝鲜人生活在韩国，这是一个多元化的群体，有成功的餐饮企业主、流行歌手和年轻的大学毕业生，也有沉默的大多数人在勉强度日。生活的压迫让他们常常觉得自己是二等公民，有些人甚至在考虑跑回朝鲜。

如果北上，我们会发现一个韩国式资本主义地区——开城工业园。它坐落于历史名城开城，离非军事区仅有100英里。那里有100多家韩国企业，雇用了5万多，名朝鲜工人。这里的工厂生产纺织品、厨具和电子产品，销往韩国和其它一些市场。到今年，这个园区成立了十周年。

在千禧年伊始之际，朝鲜半岛双方的政治谈话震惊了双边的人民，也吸引了全球的关注。开城工业园是这次谈话唯一幸存的结果。

当时，韩国领导人金大中，及其继任者卢武铉与朝鲜领导人金正日会面，商讨采取“缓和政策”，从安全领域的信心重建，到采取旅行团的方式让因朝鲜战争而分离的家人重聚，和加速经济合作。开城本来是被作为双方逐步融合的一个举措。

被推迟的计划

两位已故领导人金大中和卢武铉所主张的政策，激起了北方和南方的强烈反应。考虑到面对该地区不稳定的安全局面，以及在与美国的协商中收效甚微，金正日开始采取“军事第一”的策略，把这个国家处于萌芽期的核计划摆在首位，并进一步发展导弹计划。而在南方，保守主义情绪先把两位强硬路线执行者送上总统的职位，现在又是来自现代集团的强人、韩国最著名独裁者的女儿，朴瑾惠。

南北关系跌入谷底。2008年，一名朝鲜士兵在一个风景区内枪杀一名韩国游客，现代集团终止了旅游项目，这个项目曾经给朝鲜境内的金刚山景区带来了100万韩国游客。2010年，韩国谴责朝鲜用鱼雷袭击天安号护卫舰。同年，双方在黄海中有归属争议的延坪岛相互炮击。

开城工业园最终变成了双方关系恶化牺牲品。2013年，那里的企业停产5个月，因为朝鲜撤走了所有的工人，以示对国际制裁和军事演习的抗议。几轮谈判之后，它重新开放。在经历了断断续续的生产过程之后，园区保持稳定成长，从2005年的1500万美元到2012年的4.7亿美元。

但是这片资本主义绿洲的发展并非一帆风顺。尤其是在于韩国商谈自由贸易协定的过程中，美国贸易协会和强硬派人士反对有关朝鲜的一切事情，他们批评开城工业园的工作条件和待遇水平。朝鲜政府的确拿走了工人工资的很大一部分，但朝鲜人依然对开城工业园的工作机会求之若渴。与世界上其它地区的生产型工作相比，那里的工作条件和待遇算不上优越，但是与朝鲜本地的企业相比，已经是大幅度的改善了。

尽管工会表示出担心，但2012年生效的自由贸易协定并没有给开城工业园带来任何好处。美国、欧盟和土耳其把决定开城工业园是否可被纳入自由贸易协定的权力交给一个调查小组。到目前为止，这个小组拒绝了那里生产的所有产品。与此同时，开城内逐渐上涨的工资水平，让这片园区在与东南亚低工资生产型企业的竞争中优势不再。这从根本上否定了企业在这里存在的必要性，开城本来的目的是让韩国的中小型企业在亚洲市场上获得成本优势。

美元外交

在赢利日渐缩水的情况下，朝鲜希望把其它国家的企业引入开城工业园。6月份，第一家非韩国企业——德国纺织品公司格罗茨贝克特——在园区内开设了一个办公室。俄罗斯政府很可能出于对美国和欧盟在贸易层面制裁的担忧，最近派遣一个贸易代表团赴开城寻找投资机会。

或许在朝鲜内部，开城还是有一些竞争力的。罗先的自由贸易区在几十年前就吸引了中国和俄罗斯的投资客。2011年，朝鲜大张旗鼓地宣传在分割中国和朝鲜边界的江中，在两个岛屿——黄金坪岛和威化岛——上成立贸易区。但是金正恩的叔叔张成泽这位据说是经济合作的主要推动者被处死，显然让这些发展计划受挫。

朝鲜还宣布要在全国成立14个经济特区。但是为了实现这个计划，朝鲜必须找到新的投资来源。在美国正在领导一场全球经济制裁的背景下，这并不容易。

日本是潜在的投资者之一。东京与平壤再一次就绑架问题展开谈判。如果朝鲜可以提供更多的有关它曾经承认从日本绑架的人士的信息——东京实际上有一个长长的名单，其中包括883名它怀疑被朝鲜绑架的公民，贸易和投资或许会再次启动。否则，国际制裁和低得不能再低的信用评级，会让朝鲜成为一个不大可能的投资场所。

然而，如果说韩国和资本主义仅仅是游离在阳朝鲜中的一个阴点，未免有些误导。多年来，韩国的电视剧和电影——尽管都是非法引入——很受朝鲜人欢迎，更不用说音乐、漫画书和发型了。资本主义，以私有企业和市场的方式在整个国家蔓延，给新兴的企业家阶层提供了另外一种生活方式。

精英阶层的生活的确在发生着变化。瑞士商人Felix Abt在朝鲜管理一家制药公司7年时间，他开办了平壤商业学校。在最近出版的一本书中，他讲述了资本主义如何影响到朝鲜上层社会。某官僚阶层的一位年轻的亲戚正在接受类似于MBA那样的教育；一家软件公司为德国市场开发出一款热销的iPhone游戏；平壤科技大学沿袭了Abt商业学校的教育模式；Choson Exchange在全国各地举办有关新兴创业和其它商业活动的研讨会。

朝鲜政府对于中国在80年代所奉行的思想并不大感兴趣，邓小平在当时最著名的语录是“不管黑猫白猫，能抓到耗子就是好猫”。朝鲜政府内部的一些人依然认为这个世界非黑即白。但是这个国家明显在发生变化，尽管不为外人所察觉。

金色拱形

大部分美国人都不知道开城工业园，对于Abt在书中描写的资本主义思想蔓延和Choson Exchange所做的那些实地工作，就更鲜为人知了。如果朝鲜想要扭转自己在西方的形象，它需要做一些大的改变，表明一些态度。放弃核项目、关闭劳改营当然可以起到作用，但这恐怕是这个国家最不愿意做的事情。

几年前，我曾经建议，如果朝鲜真想改变世界对他的看法，它或许可以在平壤开一家麦当劳餐厅。

我并不相信托马斯•弗里德曼那不令人信服的理论，说有金色拱门（译者注：指麦当劳餐厅标志）的国家不会相互开战。我也不喜欢巨无霸和这个公司的低工资政策，但是我倒是非常想看到麦当劳走上Horn & Hardart（曾经是世界上最大的餐饮连锁企业）的道路。

但是，如果我们目前的首要目标是打破华盛顿与平壤之间的寒冰，并且改变美国对朝鲜的态度，那么我实在想不到有比罗纳德•麦克唐纳更理想的大使了。

对大部分美国人来说，麦当劳的确是一个比较形象的转化象征。“看啊，如果能吃到欢乐套餐，说明那里还不算一无是处。”金色拱形在莫斯科和北京出现的时候，美国人就是这么想的。一家新加坡企业已经在朝鲜成立了一个颇手欢迎的汉堡连锁店，说明那里的确有需求。

朝鲜政府羁押了三名美国人——裴俊浩、马修•米勒和杰弗里•福尔，到目前为止，它对于华盛顿的有关释放这些人的谈判采取毫不理会的态度。奥巴马政府一定在考虑派遣前任大使、前任州长，甚至前任总统来出面斡旋。或许一个有趣的候选人是麦当劳的CEO唐•汤普森，他不但可以与朝鲜人谈判释放美国人，或许还有机会在平壤市区寻找餐厅的立足之地。

开城象征着朝鲜半岛内部的合作，而麦当劳可以成为美国与朝鲜之间新型的、非军事化关系的象征。当然，这其中肯定也存在一些问题，在恢复双方外交关系的策略中采取这种经济模式，就像20年前美国使用轻水反应炉作为协议框架来达成华盛顿与平壤之间的和平相处一样，会带来一些问题。但是今天的目标和90年代的目标一样，是为了避免地区性冲突。所以我宁可把炸薯条送到朝鲜去，而不是把无人机送过去。

柏林墙已经倒塌了25年，朝鲜半岛的北方和南方其实也可以采取相同的方式，比如突然拆掉边境线上的障碍物，融合起来。但是更可能的方法就是目前已经发生的一些事：一种道教意义上的融合。阴阳的圆点变得越来越大，直到两个国家有一天突然惊奇地发现，他们已经无法区分你我，或者至少已经成为彻底互相依赖的一对伙伴，就像一对引号一样密不可分。




原文：

You've seen those nighttime satellite pictures of the Korean peninsula. The northern half is dark, while the southern half is a thousand points of light. You might think: hat's off to those thrifty North Koreans who are helping save the planet by conserving electricity!

But of course, that's not the message you're supposed to take away with you. The nighttime map is supposed to be a visual representation of what we intuitively feel to be the political, economic, and social reality of this divided land. The people of North Korea live a benighted existence in a totalitarian environment, where the entire population experiences the "lights out" of a labor camp or a detention facility. The people of South Korea, meanwhile, are just like us, staying up all night to eat, drink, dance, and party. The North is Gulag style, while the South is Gangnam Style.

The reality of the Korean peninsula is, of course, vastly more complicated than these either-or contrasts. Stop thinking of the peninsula as two completely distinct halves, with barbed wire running down the middle. At the very least, think of Korea as the Taoist yin-yang symbol: two cupped apostrophes, one black and one white and each containing a dot of the other's color. There's a little yin in yang and a little yang in yin.

Yin and Yang

The part of North Korea that resides in the south is, of course, the population that fled: the defectors. There are now around 25,000 North Koreans living in the South. It's a diverse community of successful restaurateurs, would-be rappers, and young graduate students, as well as the silent majority who are just scraping by, disappointed by life in a country where they often feel like second-class citizens. Some are so disappointed that they even contemplate defecting back to the North.

Meanwhile, up north, is an island of South Korean-style capitalism known as the Kaesong Industrial Complex. Located in the historic city of Kaesong, just a few miles north of the DMZ, the complex features over 100 South Korean companies employing more than 50,000 North Korean workers. The factories produce textiles, kitchenware, and electronics that are sold in South Korea and a few other markets. The zone is celebrating its 10th anniversary this year.

The Kaesong complex is the only remaining fruit of the engagement policies that transfixed the two Koreas -- and the attention of the world -- at the turn of the millennium.

At that time, South Korean leader Kim Dae Jung, followed by his successor Roh Moo-Hyun, met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to work out a vision of détente that extended from confidence-building measures in the security sphere and reunions of families divided by the Korean War to joint tourism projects and accelerated economic cooperation. Kaesong was supposed to be the first of many initiatives designed to gradually knit together the two halves of the peninsula.

A Deal Deferred

The engagement policies of Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun -- both of whom have since passed away -- produced significant backlash in both north and south. Facing an uncertain security environment in the region and getting very little out of negotiations with the United States, Kim Jong Il embraced a "military-first" approach that prioritized the country's nascent nuclear program and more developed missile program. Conservative sentiment in the south, on the other hand, propelled two hardliners into the presidency -- first, a former powerhouse from Hyundai and now the daughter of South Korea's most famous authoritarian leader, Park Chung Hee.

Relations between North and South sank to new lows. After North Korean guards shot and killed a South Korean tourist at a mountain resort in 2008, Hyundai shut down the venture that had brought more than a million South Koreans by boat to the spectacular Kumgang Mountains in the north. In 2010, South Korea accused North Korea of torpedoing its Cheonan warship. Also that year, the two sides exchanged artillery fire at the Yeonpyeong Islands near the disputed maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea.

The Kaesong complex eventually fell victim to the worsening climate of relations. In 2013, work there was suspended for five months as North Korea pulled out its workers amid complaints over international sanctions and military exercises. Several rounds of negotiations finally led to its reopening. Despite such hiccups in production, the complex has had steady growth, from about $15 million in 2005 to nearly $470 million in 2012.

But all is not well with this capitalist oasis. In the past, particularly during the negotiation of the Free Trade Agreement with South Korea, U.S. trade unions and hawkish opponents of anything North Korean criticized the working conditions and pay of the workers at Kaesong. Although it's true that the North Korean government skims a rather hefty amount from the salaries of the workers there, average North Koreans covet the Kaesong jobs. The compensation and working conditions are not great compared to manufacturing jobs in many parts of the world -- but they are a great improvement over factories elsewhere in the North.

Despite trade union concerns, the FTA -- which went into effect in 2012 -- has not extended any benefits to Kaesong. The United States -- along with the EU and Turkey -- relies on a panel to determine if any products from Kaesong are eligible under the FTA. So far, the panel has nixed every product. Meanwhile, the steadily increasing wages at Kaesong have made the complex less competitive with low-wage manufacturing in Southeast Asia. And that cancels out the raison d'être of the enterprise, for Kaesong was to provide small and medium-sized enterprises in South Korea an edge over their Asian competitors.

Dollar Diplomacy

With the potential waning of South Korean interest, North Korea wants to induce other countries into investing in Kaesong. In June, the first non-Korean company, the German textile firm Groz-Beckert, opened an office in the zone. The Russian government, no doubt worried about the impact of U.S. and European sanctions on trade with the West, recently sent a trade delegation to Kaesong with an eye to invest.

Kaesong might also have some competition elsewhere inside North Korea. The free trade zone in Rason has been pulling in Chinese and Russian investors for a couple decades. In 2011, with great fanfare North Korea announced two island zones -- Hwanggumpyong and Wiwha -- in the river dividing China and North Korea. But the execution of Kim Jong Un's uncle Jang Song Thaek, reportedly the chief promoter of economic cooperation between the two countries, has apparently put a damper on these development plans.

North Korea has also announced plans for 14 Special Economic Zones throughout the country. For these to take off, however, North Korea will have to find some new source of investment, and that's not easy with the United States heading up a global regime of economic sanctions against the country.

One possibility is Japan. Negotiations between Tokyo and Pyongyang have started up again over abductees. If North Korea can produce more information about the dozen people it has admitted to abducting from Japan -- Tokyo actually has a much larger list of 883 people that it suspects might have been abducted -- then trade and investment may well start rolling again. Otherwise, international sanctions and a credit rating that can't get very much lower make North Korea an unlikely place to send capital.

It would be misleading, however, to suggest that South Korea and capitalism are just a discrete dot of yin in the North Korean yang. For some years now, South Korean TV shows and films have been a popular, though illicit, pastime for North Koreans -- not to mention music, comic books, and hairstyles. And capitalism, in the form of private enterprise and markets, has sprung up all around the country, offering an alternative livelihood for a new class of entrepreneurs.

Then there's the transformation taking place at the elite level. Swiss businessman Felix Abt spent seven years North Korea managing a pharmaceutical company and setting up the Pyongyang Business School. In his recent book, he describes how capitalism has influenced the North Korean elite. A new young subset of bureaucrats is receiving the equivalent of MBAs. A software venture produced a top-selling iPhone game for the German market. The Pyongyang University of Science and Technology has taken up where Abt's business school left off. Choson Exchange runs seminars on tech start-ups and other entrepreneurial activities around the country.

The North Korean government hasn't quite embraced the philosophy of the Chinese of the 1980s, when Deng Xiaoping famously said that it doesn't matter whether the cat is white or black as long as it catches mice. Some people in the North Korean government still see the world in black and white. But the country is clearly changing, even if most of that change is invisible to outsiders.

Golden Arches

Americans, for the most part, don't know about the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They know even less about the spread of capitalist thinking that Abt describes in his book or that Choson Exchange is encouraging on the ground. If North Korea wants to turn around its image in the West, it needs to do something dramatic and symbolic. Giving up its nuclear program or closing its labor camps could certainly do the trick, but those are likely to be the last changes the country embraces, not the first ones.

Several years ago, I recommended that if North Korea really wanted to change the way the world thinks of the country, it would build a McDonalds in Pyongyang.

I don't believe in Thomas Friedman's discredited theory that countries that have Golden Arches don't go to war with one another. Nor do I like Big Macs or the company's low-wage policies. Ultimately I'd love to see McDonald's go the way of Horn & Hardart (once the world's largest restaurant chain).

But if the prime objective at this point is to break the ice between Washington and Pyongyang and change U.S. perceptions of North Korea, I can't think of a better cultural ambassador than Ronald McDonald.

McDonald's is, for most Americans, the first truly visible sign of transformation. "Gee," they say, "the place can't be all bad if you can get a Happy Meal there." Thus did Americans reason when the Golden Arches showed up in Moscow and Beijing. A Singaporean firm has already set up a popular burger franchise in North Korea, so the demand is there.

The North Korean government has been holding three Americans -- Kenneth Bae, Matthew Miller, and Jeffrey Fowle -- and has so far turned up its nose at the emissaries that Washington has proposed for negotiating their release. The Obama administration is no doubt considering former ambassadors, former governors, or former presidents for the job. A much more interesting choice would be Don Thompson, the CEO of McDonald's. In addition to negotiating the release of the Americans, Thompson could break ground on a new franchise in downtown Pyongyang.

Kaesong is a symbol of inter-Korean cooperation. McDonald's could be a symbol of a new, non-military relationship between the United States and North Korea. There are problems, of course, in putting these economic models at the center of a rapprochement strategy -- just as there were problems 20 years ago with using the light-water reactor of the Agreed Framework as the primary means of building peace between Washington and Pyongyang. But the goal today, as in the 1990s, should be to avoid a war in the region, so I'd rather be sending French fries to North Korea than drones.

It's been 25 years since the Berlin Wall fell. North and South Korea could unite in a similar fashion, through a sudden tearing down of barriers. But more likely is what is already happening: a Taoist reunification in which the dots of yin and yang grow a little bigger and a little bigger until the two countries wake up one day and discover, to their amazement, that they've become, if not indistinguishable from one another, then at least as complementary and thoroughly intermingled as a pair of nested apostrophes.