【华盛顿邮报20141102】美联社调查：中国经济放缓挫伤全球

独秀文译青年

【原文标题】AP survey: China slowdown to bruise global economy   

【中文标题】美联社调查表明，中国经济放缓将挫伤全球经济

【原文作者】Chris Rugaber

【原文链接】http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ap-survey-china-slowdown-to-bruise-global-economy/2014/11/02/792c2104-629c-11e4-ab86-46000e1d0035_story.html

FILE - In this Oct. 21, 2014 file photo, a worker dressed an emperor costume to attract customers as he stands outside a shop selling souvenirs at the Wangfujing shopping district in Beijing, China. An Associated Press survey of 30 economists has found that 57 percent of them expect China’s decelerating economy to restrain growth in countries from Brazil and Chile to Australia and South Korea. A notable exception is the United States, which the economists see as largely insulated from China’s troubles. (Andy Wong, File/Associated Press)

为了吸引顾客，站在北京王府井购物中心纪念品专卖店的工作人员穿上中国古代皇帝的服饰。美联社对三十位经济学家的调查显示，他们中的57%人认为中国经济增长放缓将影响整个泛太平洋地区，而美国是唯一一个没有受到太大影响的国家。

【正文】

WASHINGTON — China’s roaring economy for years has pulled much of the rest of the world with it, soaking up oil, iron ore and other commodities from developing countries and autos and luxury goods from Europe.

中国近年来迅猛的经济发展拉动了世界经济的增长。在发展中国里，中国大量购买石油、铁矿石等材料；在欧洲，中国则进口各种汽车和奢侈品。

But its role as a global engine is fading as its economy slows — and many other nations, in the view of economists, will feel the pain. An Associated Press survey of 30 economists has found that 57 percent of them expect China’s decelerating economy to restrain growth in countries from Brazil and Chile to Australia and South Korea.

随着中国经济增速放缓，其“经济发动机”的作用正在慢慢消退。经济学家认为，这会让许多国家经济遭受创伤。美联社对三十位经济学家的调查显示，他们中的57%人认为中国经济增长放缓将影响整个泛太平洋地区经济的发展。

A notable exception is the United States, which the economists see as largely insulated from China’s troubles.

经济学家认为，美国是唯一一个没有受到中国经济增速放缓带来很大影响的国家。

China’s once-explosive growth has slowed in part because of its government’s efforts to restrain its speculative real estate sector  and shift its economy toward consumer spending. China’s economy expanded 7.3 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, its slowest pace since 2009. A growth rate above 7 percent would be the envy of most major economies. But for China, it marked a sharp slowdown after three decades of double-digit expansion.

中国一度喷井式的经济增长如今却放缓，部分原因是中国政府为了抑制房产业的投机行为，以及实现消费型经济转变的目标。中国在一年前第三季度GDP年增速为7.3%，为2009年以来最低点。GDP增速在7%以上会让大部分主要国家羡慕不已，但对于中国来说，这个数字创造了近三十年以来新低。

Last week, the Conference Board, a business group, forecast that China’s growth would slump to 4 percent by 2020.

世界大型企业联合会上星期作出预言，称中国到2020年经济增速将跌至4%。

China’s deceleration is rippling around the world. Brazil and Australia are selling it less iron ore, a key ingredient in steel, as China’s construction boom slows. Chile is exporting less copper to China. Indonesia is selling it less oil and lumber.

中国经济下行的影响蔓延至全球。铁矿石是钢铁产业的重要原材料，而由于中国建筑行业发展放缓，巴西和澳大利亚对中国的铁矿石出口正在减少。同理，智利的铜以及印度尼西亚的石油和木材对中国的出口都在减少。

And South Korea’s electronics exports have faltered, hampering its growth, as Chinese consumers buy fewer smartphones or choose cheaper domestic alternatives.

韩国方面，由于中国消费者对智能手机需求的减少以及他们选择相对便宜的国产品牌，韩国的电子产品对中国的出口增长也止步不前。

China is also cracking down on corruption, which threatens European designer brands. Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University’s Smith School of Business, estimates that one-third of luxury Swiss watches are exported to China. In addition, China is the fastest-growing market for Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

与此同时，中国政府正在严厉打击腐败，这一行动将影响到欧洲设计品牌。据加州州立大学史密斯商学院的经济学教授Sung Won Sohn估算，瑞士三分之一的奢侈手表都是出口到中国。另外，中国也是对汽车品牌奔驰和宝马需求增长最快的市场。

U.S. automakers, particularly General Motors, also sell lots of cars in China. But nearly all are built in China and don’t contribute much to the U.S. economy, Sohn said. That’s true of many other U.S. goods sold in China, including electronics. As a result, weaker sales in China wouldn’t much hurt the United States. Capital Economics, a forecasting firm, calculates that only 6.5 percent of U.S. exports go to China — equal to just 0.9 percent of the U.S. Economy.

以通用汽车为首的美国汽车制造商同样出口大量汽车到中国。Sohn称，由于制造环节大多在中国进行，因此这对美国经济贡献并不大。同理，包括电子产品在内的许多美国产品虽然卖到了中国，但对美国经济增长的帮助却不大。据宏观经济咨询机构“凯投宏观”估算，美国对外出口贸易量中，中国占了6.5%，但这6.5%仅相当于美国经济总量的0.9%。

“It’s hard to see a slowdown in China having a really significant impact on the U.S. economy, barring a complete collapse,” said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics.

“凯投宏观”的经济学者Paul Ashworth称，中国经济放缓对美国不会有太大影响。

The AP surveyed a range of corporate, Wall Street and academic economists from Oct. 24 through 29. Among their other views:

从2014年10月24日到29日这几天中，美联社对一些华尔街专家以及学术经济学家进行了调查。他们的观点如下：

— If Republicans wrest control of the Senate from Democrats in Tuesday’s elections, it would probably cause political gridlock but would have little effect on the U.S. economy. A few economists said such an election result might lead to tax reforms that would boost long-term growth.

——如果在周二的选举中，共和党人能从民主党人手中夺取参议院的控制权，这将会形成美国政治对峙，但却对美国经济影响甚微。一些经济学家称，这样的选举结果可能触发能让经济长期保持增长的税制改革。

— Retail sales will pick up during this holiday shopping season. The economists think sales will rise 4.1 percent from a year ago, up from 3.8 percent in 2013. Lower gas prices and greater hiring should boost Americans’ spending power.

——假日购物季的来临让零售额上涨。经济学家认为，零售额增长会从2013年3.8%的基础上再上升4.1%。油价下跌和就业率增长将增强美国民众的消费能力。

— Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has done a better job than her counterpart at the European Central Bank, President Mario Draghi. The economists gave Yellen an average score of 3.8 on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 the best and 1 the worst. Draghi earned 3.2. Most economists say they wish the ECB would take bolder steps to spur growth in the 18-nation eurozone, which may be on the brink of its third recession in seven years.

——美联储主席Janet Yellen就比欧洲央行主席Mario Draghi做得好。经济学家以最低1分、最高5分的标准从1到5分分别给二者打分，Yellen得到的平均分为3.8分，而Draghi只得到了3.2分。许多经济学家希望欧洲央行能够采取更大胆的方法，以刺激处在第三次经济衰退边缘的18国欧元区的经济增长。

Most of surveyed economists think the U.S. economy can expand at a respectable annual rate of 2.5 percent to 3 percent through next year even if Europe, Japan and China stumble.

接受调查的大部分经济学者都认为，即使欧洲、日本和中国经济不景气，美国明年的经济增速也将很有可能达到2.5%至3%。

On Friday, Japan’s central bank unexpectedly intensified its stimulus efforts to try to invigorate its chronically anemic economy. The Bank of Japan will buy more government bonds and other assets lift inflation and spur more spending. That announcement helped lift financial markets around the world.

周五，为了让长期乏力的经济回暖，日本央行意外地宣布了经济刺激加强政策。日本银行将购买更多政府债券和其他资产以抑制通货膨胀、并刺激消费。这项决定鼓舞了世界金融市场。

Oil prices have fallen more than 25 percent since summer, partly because China is using less of it and thereby reducing global demand for oil. With demand slowing, the national average price of gasoline in the United States fell 33 cents in October to $3.00 even, according to AAA. The average dipped below $3 this weekend for the first time in four years.

入夏以来，由于中国对石油使用的减少导致全球对石油需求的减少，油价的跌幅超过了25%。据美国会计学会统计，由于石油需求的减少，美国国内平均油价降到3美元整，共跌了33美分。本周末，平均油价更是四年来首次下跌至低于3美元。

Robert Johnson, an economist at Morningstar, an investing service, noted that the United States has been recovering steadily from the Great Recession even as China’s economy has weakened. China was growing at a double-digit pace in 2010, when the U.S. was still struggling to escape the recession. Now, the U.S. economy has expanded at a 4 percent annual pace over the past six months.

投资研究机构“晨星”公司的经济学家Robert Johnson指出，尽管中国经济出现放缓，但是美国已经从大萧条中稳健复苏。2010年，中国GDP以两位数的速度增长，而美国经济则在困境中求生存。如今，美国已经走出阴霾，在过去六个月中经济增速达到了4%。

Still, if China’s growth does slow significantly, eventually it could diminish growth in the United States.

尽管如此，如果中国经济增速极大地放缓，最后还是会影响到美国的经济增速。

“China is such a big market,” Sohn said. “Sooner or later, we will feel the impact.”

Sohn说：“因为中国市场巨大，因此我们迟早会感受到由中国经济持续放缓带来的负面影响。”

siluxinyu1964

石油价格的下跌怎么也算在中国头上了？

siluxinyu1964

石油下跌在于美元上涨和美国页岩气的大量开采。