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原标题：Corruptionin the housing market：To those that have thebureaucrat’s house-price discount 通常而言，中国腐败官员最狡诈的不是如何用新招来谋取钱财或收取贿赂，而是如何使计藏住他得到的不正当收入。没有人想变成下一个“房叔”，那个被网友戏称的广东省某行政官员。他于两年前被反腐败活动分子在网上曝光，揭露他总共拥有22处地产，而依照他的收入是绝对无法支付得起的。 然而，据宾夕法尼亚州立大学方汉明教授、北京大学光华管理学院周黎安及顾全林开展的研究则表明，房地产市场既是非法财富的源头，也是非法财富的“仓库”。笔者发现中国官老爷们在买房的时候总是花更少的钱，甚至平均都是给打了1折。 这一现象的唯一解释是，所谓折扣是房地产开发商给官老爷们的贿赂。笔者发现管理房地产的官员以及高级公务员会享受更大的折扣，而省级政府官员则得到相当于他们年薪的4折，更是印证了这一 观点。 笔者仔细研究了一堆抵押贷款合同，上面包括详细的申请数据诸如收入和雇主以及心仪房子等等。接下来把官老爷们的房款和普通私人的房款做对比。这样的估算或许还低估了房市的腐败—因为这还不包括官老爷们的夫人或孩子买的房。 直到近来，房产商和诚实的市民一样打算对腐败孤注一掷。最夸张的时候，一些大城市的房价每年以20%增长。但是最近几年，由于每个公民只允许用国家房贷补贴购买一处房产规定的实行，房地产市场渐渐冷却。据报道，九月份的房价下跌1.3%，成为房市连续下降第五个月。这预示着一人一房产限制的规定已经发挥极大作用。而政府方面为避免房市崩溃，开始在一些二线城市放松限制。 而对于未曝光的“房叔”这一类型的人，这有可能成为他们清洗赃款的绝妙时机。公众对腐败官员的骚动愤怒使得政府引进房地产登记，以期成功而全面地曝光的非法持有和赃款。 然而，房地产登记只有到2020年才有可能全面执行，这为贪污腐败的官老爷们许多时间对他们的财产转移进行转移。中国的房市总有一天能够变成透明的，但是还不至于像让投机分子焦虑一样让官老爷们携款潜逃。
OFTEN the trickiest part of being a corruptbureaucrat is not how to find new ways to extort money or accept bribes, buthow to hide the ill-gotten gains. No one wants to end up like “Uncle House”, asa district official in the southern province of Guangdong was dubbed byinternet users. He was outed two years ago by online anti-corruption activistsafter acquiring 22 properties that on his salary he clearly could not afford. However, research by Hanming Fang of the Universityof Pennsylvania, and Li-An Zhou and Quanlin Gu of the Guanghua School ofManagement at Peking University suggests that the housing market is a source ofillicit riches, as well as a place to park them. The authors find that Chinesebureaucrats consistently pay less when buying houses, receiving on average a 1%discount. The most likely explanation is that this is a formof bribe by property developers. Supporting this theory is the authors’ findingthat officials who regulate property, and senior public servants, enjoy thebiggest discounts. Those from provincial governments, for example, received a 4%reduction, roughly equivalent to two-thirds of their yearly salary. Theauthors examined over 1m mortgage contracts, which contain detailed statisticson the applicant, such as his income and employer, and the house in question.They then compared the average price paid by bureaucrats with that paid bythose in the private sector. These estimates probably underestimate the corruption as they do notcover houses purchased by the spouses or children of bureaucrats. Until recently the property market seemed a one-waybet for corrupt and honest citizens alike. At their peak, house prices in somebig cities were growing by 20% a year. But in recent years the market has beencooled by rules such as limits on the number of properties each citizen can buyand on the mortgage subsidies the state supplies. Prices are reported to havedeclined by 1.3% in September, marking the fifth consecutive monthly fall,suggesting that the restrictions may have worked too well. Keen to avoid acollapse, the government has begun to unwind some of the restrictions insecond-tier cities. For as yet unexposed “Uncle House” types, this maybe a good time to clean up their portfolios. The furore over corrupt officialshas prompted the government to introduce a property register. The hope is thatwill succeed in uncovering the full extent of illicit holdings and corruption.However, the register is to be implemented completely only by 2020, affordingshady bureaucrats plenty of time to move their wealth into the shadows. China’sproperty market may indeed one day become transparent, but not so soon as to giveofficials moonlighting as speculators an immediate reason to panic.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2014-11-5 21:52
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显身卡
发表于 2014-11-5 22:44
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