中国网购交易额2018年将超世界其他地区总和

独秀文译青年

【原文标题】By 2018, China will spend more online than the rest of the world combined

【中文标题】中国网购交易额2018年将超世界其他地区总和

【原文作者】Leo Mirani

【原文链接】http://qz.com/294710/by-2018-china-will-spend-more-online-than-the-rest-of-the-world-combined/

Chinese shoppers are celebrating the online shopping extravaganza Singles Day, and by 1:30pm local time, they had spent nearly $6 billion on Alibaba, the country’s biggest e-commerce site. Last year it took them the full day to cough up that much cash. It is a sign of just how quickly China’s e-commerce market is growing.

中国网民光棍节当天迎来了网购狂潮。截止当地时间下午1点30分不到一天的时间里，消费者在淘宝上花销将近60亿美元，而去年用了整整一天才达到这个数字。这个变化显示中国电商市场正在迅速发展。

But Singles Day is just the beginning. Chinese e-commerce is about to get much, much bigger. By 2018 sales from e-commerce in China will exceed those in the rest of the world combined, reckons Morgan Stanley.

光棍节只是发展的开始。中国电商发展将会更快更大。摩根斯坦利预计到2018年，中国网购交易额将超过世界其他地区网购交易额的总和。

全球电商交易额（单位：十亿；区域：中国、美国、其他地区）

At the rate e-commerce is growing, it will account for one in every five renminbi spent in China by 2018.

以目前电商增长速度计算，到2018年中国网购交易额将占到国内零售总额的1/5。

中国国内电商年交易额占总零售额百分比

One of the factors that helps drive rising e-commerce sales is consumer confidence. The more experience people have with online shopping, the more they spend.

推动这一增长的主要因素之一就是消费者信心。网购经验越多，消费者网购花销就越多。

个人网购经验（横；单位：年）与个人平均网购花销（纵；单位：人民币）

Another reason is that physical retail infrastructure in China is thin on the ground, especially when compared to more developed economies.

另一个原因是中国实体商店力量薄弱，尤其是和发达经济体相比。

2013年人均商业面积（单位：立方米；地区从左到右：美德英日中）

This is particularly true outside of big urban centers, which helps explain why much of the growth will come from smaller towns. Nearly 60% of active mobile devices are in “tier 3″ or smaller cities, and a quarter of online purchases in the first half of this year were made on mobile.

实体店力量薄弱的缺点在商业中心以外地方尤为明显，正因如此电商的增长来源很多都是来自小城镇。将近60%的移动设备活跃用户都是在三线城市或者更小的城市，上半年四分之一的网购交易额通过移动设备完成交易。

在7.8亿部活跃移动设备中，58%的活跃设备来自三线城市及以下城市，而一线城市和二线城市的活跃设备分别仅占19%和23%。

云竹

也许，电子商务将带来商品交易翻天覆地的变化！

puluding

这个评论还是不愿意承认，电子商务是新一轮商业模式的开始，仍然将中国电子商务的发展归咎于传统商业卖场的匮乏。这显然是不正确的。

恰恰相反，中国电子商务越发达的地方，越是中国经济发达的地方，越是传统商业发达的地方。