【外交政策 201411】破碎的世界：2014百大思考者 － 决策者

满仓

【中文标题】破碎的世界：2014百大思考者 － 决策者
【原文标题】A World Disrupted: The Leading Global Thinkers of 2014
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文链接】http://globalthinkers.foreignpolicy.com/




在世界上最大的民主国家策划一场全国选举；把西方的目光转向俄罗斯对乌克兰的突袭；把一个被宗教分裂的非洲国家重新凝聚在一起；对欧洲最落后的经济体进行改革。这仅仅是被归入下面这一类的人们所做的那些繁杂、艰难的工作的一小部分。为了给“治理”这个概念赋予一个正确的定义，这些决策者们直面风险、挑战传统、力求变化。


纳伦德拉•莫迪
总理，印度

“让世界上人口最多的民主国家焕发出迷人的光彩。”

Narendra Modi的美国签证申请被拒绝9年，欧盟拒绝他入境10年。西方对这个印度爱国者的冷淡态度与很多印度人不相信他的原因一样：他在2002年对宗派暴力行为的容忍导致古吉拉特邦的1000人死亡，其中大部分是穆斯林。莫迪当时是那里的首席部长。

但是，在印度2014年大选中，莫迪在腐败又低效的国会党派中脱颖而出，他最终让很多人相信，作为一个有魅力、亲商业的领导人，他可以复兴印度低迷的经济。他的演讲吸引了成千上万的人，他还通过3D全息投影置身于全国观众之中。

尽管人们担心他的经济政策是否会加大贫富差距，他的激进民族主义是否会恶化与巴基斯坦的关系，但是莫迪的印度人民党取得了三十年来差距最悬殊的一场胜利。莫迪5月份在推特上对粉丝们说：“印度胜利了……美好的未来就在前方。”现在判断他是否正确还为时尚早。


安吉拉•默克尔
总理，德国

“抵挡普京。”

在2014年所发生的不幸事件中，超级势力之间的战争并没有蔓延到欧洲。尽管俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动差一点就引发了与西方的全面冲突，但灾难并未降临。这其中的很大一部分要归功于德国总理安吉拉•默克尔。

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京异常狡诈，遏制这个前克格勃特工的责任落在了默克尔的肩上。她的俄语非常流利，甚至可以更正翻译的错误；普京的德语也不成问题，他曾经在东德做间谍工作。柏林与莫斯科之间的经济关系让德国与俄罗斯的相互依赖性更强，但是这也让默克尔手中掌握一些华盛顿缺少的武器。

因此德国是有能力约束北极熊的重量级人物。但是默克尔巧妙地使用她的能力，采取了局部的制裁措施，又不让普京感觉到被逼上绝路。


阿米特•沙阿
总裁，人民党，印度

“一手导演了莫迪的压倒性胜利。”

所有成功的竞选负责人都是群众组织大师，但是除了在印度人口最多的北方邦掀起庞大的竞选声势，阿米特•沙阿还对于如何让印度人对候选人纳伦德拉•莫迪产生好感展现出令人惊叹的理解深度。他利用巧妙的手法把一个人变成超人。（莫迪著名的一句话“胸围56英寸”让这位现任总理展现出魁梧的体格，从而暗示他的领导能力。）

沙尔与莫迪一样富有争议。2010年7月，他被卷入了一系列指控，包括谋杀，据说他曾经参与庭外施刑事件。（过去几个月里，沙尔被准许免于出庭，尽管案件的审理还没有结束。）但是在莫迪的支持下，沙尔在7月初开始担任人民党的总裁。在这个位置上，他会继续扮演党内的卡尔•罗夫和莫迪支持者的角色。


哈桑•鲁哈尼
总统，伊朗

“打开大门。”

哈桑•鲁哈尼也被收入年度百位思考者名单，原因是他敞开大门与美国进行核对话。今年他再次出现，是因为这扇大门还没有关上。这位伊朗总统在国内非常积极地为谈话做辩护，强硬派成员联合起来试图阻止伊朗与西方接触，但都被他成功压制。

鲁哈尼对谈话一直保持乐观态度，但是他的领导——伊朗最高领导人阿里•哈梅内伊——的反美态度在几十年里决定了伊朗的外交辞令风格。尽管总统说德黑兰“必将”与P5+1（美国、俄罗斯、法国、德国、中国和英国）达成协议，但哈梅内伊依然在谴责西方支持伊斯兰国的武装组织，给谈话制造障碍。他写道，只要美国人继续与伊朗为敌，“与他们互动——没有实时性的意义”。

尽管如此，鲁哈尼似乎还在尽力说服最高领导人，同时扭转伊朗民众三十年来的仇美情绪。我们期待一个新的开始。


路易斯•维德加里
财政部长，墨西哥

“让墨西哥重新充满力量。”

8月，路易斯•维德加里策划的一个全面能源改革法案被批准纳入法律，他以此证明自己“墨西哥政府大脑”的称号并非浪得虚名。在过去的76年中，外国直接投资第一次被允许染指这个国家的能源产业，这项举措预计会带来每年200亿美元的额外收入。

维德加里期望墨西哥人可以用上低成本的能源，他的改革方案主要关注当前经济制度的可持续性，包括墨西哥中小企业，并为他们提供带宽和信用。他在接受《经济学人》采访时说，市场需要借力政府才会成功，“这些市场自己不会打开”。

维德加里在2012年被委任财长职务，任职第一年无所作为，但他并不是政界的新面孔。这位麻省理工学院的毕业生在总统恩里克•培尼亚•涅托担任国会议员期间就与其共事，捏托在2005年任州长之后，任命他为首席财务长。


凯萨琳•森巴•班莎
过渡总统，中非共和国

“收拾国家的残局。”

当凯萨琳•森巴•班莎在1月份被选为中非共和国的领导人时，基督教徒与穆斯林的暴力冲突已经导致数千人死亡，数十万人流离失所。

她的前任——一位女性反叛领袖——留下来的是一部已经基本停止运作的国家机器。但是，森巴•班莎作为非洲历史上第三位女性总统，充满信心地接受了这份极具挑战性的工作。6月，她宣布了4点计划，让这个国家庞大民兵组织中的年轻人加入到经济和政治活动中来，她还举办对话活动来缓和基督教徒与穆斯林社区之间的紧张关系。为了确保政府承担必要的责任，他决定每个部长都有三个月的试用期。她已经为2015年的民主大选打好了坚实的基础。（她说自己不会参选。）

中非共和国依然百废待兴，一支联合国维和部队在9月份抵达当地。但是森巴•班莎依然在坚持，在近期到华盛顿的拜访时，她说：“要重新点燃每一个人的希望。”


爱丹•厄佐谷兹
移民融入专员，德国

“重塑德国公民形象。”

欧洲算不上个熔炉。几十年来，这片大陆一直无法真正让来自穆斯林国家的移民真正融入公民社区。要么把他们妖魔化为人口入侵威胁，要么把他们当作滋生激进主义行为的贱民。信任德国移民融入专员的爱丹•厄佐谷兹，希望改变这一切。

厄佐谷兹出生于土耳其，与父母来到汉堡务工，她在德国政坛崛起的速度令人眼花缭乱。2013年12月，她成为第一任土耳其裔穆斯林女性部长。她推动实施的一项法律允许身在德国的儿童移民持有多重国籍，这引起了一些争议。

但是她的野心绝非某一个法律条款，她想让德国改变自己对公民这个概念的定义，将其赋予归属感。她在接受德国之声电视台采访时说：“无论姓名和背景，德国人并不是德国祖先的专利。”


路易斯•阿尔马格罗/何塞•穆希卡
外交部长/总统，乌拉圭

“向世人证明难民永远会有容身之所。”

何塞•穆希卡的激进态度无论在国内还是国际事务上都表露无遗。这位左派游击队员出身的政治家不在乌拉圭的总统府办公，而是选择了一个小农场；他把自己收入的90％都捐赠给慈善事业，还让大麻合法化。他在国际舞台上同样表现出挑衅的姿态，他压力批判精英阶层对经济增长的痴迷，还抨击联合国奢华的峰会。今年，总统和他的外交部长路易斯•阿尔马格罗告诉世人，像乌拉圭这样的国家——仅300万人口、人均GDP1.4万美元——也可以为解决世界上最棘手的问题做出贡献。10月，穆希卡把42名叙利亚难民迎进蒙得维的亚。他和阿尔马格罗究竟想要传达什么信息？富裕的国家应当主动为300万叙利亚难民提供安全的避风港——这没有借口。

这些人是乌拉圭准予国籍项目第一次试运行的对象，明年年初还会有78名难民参与。穆希卡在接收《今日美国》采访时说：“我们希望让世界了解，还有其它的解决办法。”


马泰奥•伦齐
总理，意大利

“公然抵制‘班嘎班嘎’政治。”

马泰奥•伦齐在今年2月旋风般闯入基吉宫，发誓要“rottamare”，也就是彻底推翻意大利的旧秩序。现年39岁的他是后贝卢斯科尼时代的“破坏者”，他要用商业友好的高效率替代这个国家运转不灵的国会（当然没有“班嘎班嘎”）。伦奇3的目标是意大利有序的国会，然后用这个国家的信用来实施欧盟精简节约的政策。

这位过度兴奋的佛罗伦萨人发现，意大利的既得利益阶层——包括公务员和工会——似乎不愿受他的支配。但是尽管他在议会的改革遭到抵制，甚至自己民主党的成员也在反对他，但是他依然在裁剪人浮于事的参议院。如果他能在这个职位上坐得更久——意大利政治是出了名的背信弃义——他或许是自30年代以来让意大利脱离经济危机最大的希望。





原文：

Decision-Makers

Masterminding a national election in the world’s largest democracy. Steering the West’s response to Russia’s forays into Ukraine. Presenting a plan for reconciliation and accountability in an African country torn along religious lines. Plotting major reforms in one of Europe’s most sluggish economies. These are just a few of the diverse, and unenviable, job descriptions of the men and women in this category. Working to give governance a good name, these decision-makers have taken risks, challenged norms, and demanded change.

Narendra Modi
Prime minister
India
For enthralling the world’s most populous democracy.

Narendra Modi faced a United States visa ban for nine years, and the European Union ostracized him for 10. The West cold-shouldered the Hindu nationalist for the same reason many Indians distrusted him: his tolerance of sectarian violence in 2002 that left at least 1,000 people—mostly Muslims—dead in Gujarat state, where Modi was chief minister.

But by India’s 2014 elections, after years of corrupt and inefficient Congress party rule, Modi had convinced many that his record as a charismatic, business-friendly leader made him just the person to revive India’s flagging growth. His speeches drew hundreds of thousands, and he reached millions via 3-D holographic projections.

Despite concerns that his economic vision could widen inequality and that his vigorous nationalism could worsen relations with Pakistan, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party claimed the country’s biggest electoral landslide in three decades. “India has won! ... Good times ahead,” Modi tweeted to millions of followers in May. It’s too soon to say whether he was right.

Angela Merkel
Chancellor
Germany
For parrying Putin.

Amid the disasters of 2014, the year was notable for the fact that open warfare among major powers did not return to Europe. Although Russia’s shadowy war in Ukraine nearly provoked all-out confrontation with the West, catastrophe never came, and much of the credit for that goes to German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is a wily leader, and it has fallen upon Merkel to manage the former KGB agent. Throughout the crisis in Ukraine, no world leader has talked more with Putin than Merkel. Her Russian is so good that she can correct her official interpreters; Putin’s German is equally good, a remnant of his days as a spy in East Germany. Berlin’s economic ties with Russia might make Germany more interdependent with Moscow, but they also give Merkel leverage that Washington lacks.

Germany, then, could be the heavyweight capable of containing the Russian bear. But Merkel has been nimble in using her power, embracing sectoral sanctions while preventing Putin from feeling cornered.

Amit Shah
President, Bharatiya Janata Party
India
For engineering Modi’s landslide.

All successful campaign managers are masters of mass human organization. But aside from building a formidable campaign machine in India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, where he directed the victorious campaign of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Amit Shah exhibited an almost otherworldly understanding of how to make candidate Narendra Modi appeal to Indians. His deft image management balanced the human with the superhuman. (Modi’s famous line—“it takes a 56-inch chest”—referenced the now-prime minister’s imposing physique as a way to showcase his leadership ability.)

Like Modi, Shah is controversial. In July 2010 he was incarcerated on various charges, including murder, for his alleged involvement in extrajudicial killings. (In the past few months, Shah has been granted exemptions from appearing in court, though the proceedings in the case are technically ongoing.) But with Modi’s support, Shah rose to the powerful post of BJP president in early July. There he will likely remain, serving as the party’s Karl Rove and Modi’s enforcer.

Hassan Rouhani
President
Iran
For keeping the door open.

Hassan Rouhani made this list last year for opening a door that would lead to nuclear talks with the United States; he appears again this year because that door remains open. The Iranian president continues to defend the talks vociferously in Iran, beating back a concerted effort from hard-liners to undermine the tentative rapprochement with the West.

Rouhani has remained relentlessly upbeat about the discussions, even as his boss, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has stuck to the anti-American tone that has characterized Iranian rhetoric for decades. Although the president said that Tehran will “certainly” reach an agreement with the P5+1—the United States, Russia, France, Germany, China, and Britain—Khamenei has blamed the West for creating the Islamic State militant group and has set impossible conditions for the talks, writing that as long as the Americans continue their enmity toward Iran, “interactions with them … bears no practicality.”

Still, Rouhani seems to be doing his best to convince the supreme leader, as well as an Iranian population weaned on three decades of anti-Americanism, that it’s time for a new beginning.

Luis Videgaray
Secretary of Finance and Public Credit
|Mexico
For re-energizing Mexico.

Luis Videgaray showed that his reputation as the brains of Mexico’s government is no overstatement when a comprehensive energy reform bill he designed was signed into law in August. For the first time in 76 years, direct foreign investment will be allowed in the country’s energy sector—a move that is estimated to bring in an additional $20 billion annually.

Expected to expand the availability of low-cost energy to Mexicans, Videgaray’s reforms focus on the sustainability of existing economic institutions, including small Mexican firms, and input quality such as broadband and credit. Markets need a little governmental nudging to find success, he told the Economist: “These markets will not open up by themselves.”

Although he was appointed finance secretary in 2012 and spent his first year out of the limelight, Videgaray isn’t entirely new to politics. The MIT graduate has worked with President Enrique Peña Nieto since the latter was a state congressman; when Peña Nieto was elected a state governor in 2005, he made Videgaray his finance chief.

Catherine Samba-Panza
Interim president
|Central African Republic
For picking up the pieces of her country.

When Catherine Samba-Panza was selected to lead the Central African Republic in January, violence between Christian and Muslim militias had left thousands dead and hundreds of thousands displaced.

Under her predecessor, a former rebel leader, state institutions had basically stopped functioning. Yet Samba-Panza, only the third female president in African history, welcomed her challenging job. She announced a four-point plan in June to integrate youth—who have fed the country’s rapacious militias—into economic and political processes, and she launched a dialogue to reduce tensions between Christian and Muslim communities. Demanding government accountability, she introduced three-month trial periods for ministers, and she is laying the groundwork for democratic elections in 2015. (She has said she will not run.)

The Central African Republic is still in tatters; a U.N. peacekeeping force arrived in September. But Samba-Panza continues to work, as she said during a recent visit to Washington, “to give back hope to each and every person.”

Aydan Özoguz
Integration minister
|Germany
For reimagining German citizenship.

Europe is no melting pot. For decades, the continent has struggled to integrate immigrants from Muslim-majority countries, sometimes demonizing them as a demographic threat or relegating them to ghettos that breed radicalism. Aydan Özoguz, Germany’s new integration minister, hopes to change all that.

Born to Turkish parents who came to Hamburg as guest workers, Özoguz has risen meteorically in German politics. In December 2013, she became the first Muslim woman of Turkish origin to serve as a state minister, charged with implementing a controversial new law that gives children of immigrants in Germany the right to hold more than one passport.

But her ambitions go beyond any one piece of legislation: She wants Germans to reimagine citizenship itself and embrace a sense of belonging for all, “whatever their name or background,” she told DW-TV. “Being German doesn’t just mean coming from a long line of German ancestors.”

Luis Almagro, José Mujica
Foreign minister; president
|Uruguay
For proving there’s always room for refugees.

José Mujica is something of a radical, both at home and abroad. The leftist guerrilla turned statesman opted for a small farm over Uruguay’s presidential palace, donates about 90 percent of his income to charity, and legalized marijuana. Pursuing an equally provocative approach to international affairs, he has railed against the power elite’s obsession with economic growth and has blasted showy United Nations summits. This year, the president and his foreign minister, Luis Almagro, set out to show that a country like Uruguay—with its tiny population of some 3 million and gross national income per capita of around $14,000—could do its part in addressing one of the world’s worst crises. In October, Mujica welcomed 42 Syrian refugees to Montevideo. His and Almagro’s message? That there are no excuses: Wealthier countries should also step up and provide safe havens to the more than 3 million Syrian refugees.

This group is the first in Uruguay’s pilot program offering a path to Uruguayan citizenship; another 78 refugees are expected early next year. “We wanted to earn the right to tell the rest of the world that there are other solutions,” Mujica told USA Today.

Matteo Renzi
Prime minister
|Italy
For bucking bunga-bunga politics.

Matteo Renzi stormed into Palazzo Chigi in February vowing to “rottamare,” or scrap the old order in Italy. At 39, he was the post-Berlusconi “Demolition Man,” ready to replace his country’s sclerotic politics with business-friendly efficiency (without the bunga-bunga). Renzi’s goal was to get Italy’s house in order and then use the country’s enhanced credibility to take on the European Union’s austerity policies.

The effervescent Florentine is finding that Italy’s vested interests—its civil service and labor unions among them—are not so quick to yield to his charm. But although his promised reforms have stalled in Parliament and have been opposed even by members of his own Democratic Party, he is weakening the cumbersome Senate. If he can hang onto his office—Italian politics can be notoriously treacherous—he may be the best hope to lift Italy out of its worst economic slump since the 1930s.