【路透社 20150117】中国央行学者预计中国今年GDP增长7.3%

独秀文译青年

【原文标题】China central bank scholar sees GDP growth up to 7.3% in 2015

【中文标题】中国央行学者预计中国今年GDP增长7.3%

【文章来源】路透社

【文章链接】http://news.yahoo.com/china-central-bank-scholar-sees-gdp-growth-7-130004297--business.html;_ylt=AwrTWVXFFL1UW14Ah6fQtDMD

China's economic growth may be as high as 7.3 percent this year, partly due to falling commodity prices, the official Xinhua news agency quoted an academic advisor to the central bank's monetary policy committee as saying on Saturday.

Song Guoqing was also quoted telling a forum that China's consumer price index may rise in 2015 by about 1.6 percent, saying the sharp decline in prices of commodities including crude oil, iron ore and copper presented "a large bonus" for the economy.

据中国人民银行货币政策委员会学术顾问宋国庆在某讨论会上表示，受原油、铁矿石和铜等大宗商品价格下降的影响，中国2015年经济增长将维持在7.3%。消费者物价指数将上升1.6%。

Xinhua said Song's views were echoed by Ma Jun, chief economist of the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) research bureau.

宋国庆的观点得到了中国人民银行研究局首席经济学家马骏的认可。

The central bank had said in a report seen by Reuters in mid-December China's economic growth could slow to 7.1 percent in 2015 from an expected 7.4 percent last year.

中国人民银行在2014年12月中旬发布的一篇报告中称中国的经济增长2015年将下降到7.1%，无法达到7.4%的预期目标。

China's annual economic growth likely slowed to 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, the weakest since the depths of the global crisis, a Reuters poll in early January showed, which would keep pressure on policymakers to head off a sharper slowdown this year.

据路透社本月稍早的调查显示，中国2014年第四季度GDP有可能下滑至7.2%，这个数字是全球经济危机最严重时期以来的最低点，同时也让政策制定者在避免GDP骤降问题上倍感压力。

The expected slowdown in growth of the world's second-largest economy, from 7.3 percent in the June-September quarter, means the full-year figure would undershoot the government's 7.5 percent target and mark the weakest expansion in 24 years.

从第三季度7.3%下降到第四季度的7.2%意味着中国2014全年GDP增长无法达到7.5%的目标，同时7.2%的经济增长也将达到24年以来的低谷。

China's reform-minded leaders have shown greater tolerance of slower growth, but a further slowdown could fuel job losses and undermine public support for changes.

中国改革派领导对经济增速放缓表示更大的宽容，但如果持续放缓不仅会导致失业问题，也会逐渐失去民众对改革的支持。

The PBOC unexpectedly cut interest rates in November for the first time in more than two years, aiming to lower borrowing costs and support growth. Later, it loosened loan restrictions to encourage banks to step up lending.

中国人民银行去年12月两年多以来首次下调利率，目的是降低借贷成本、促进消费增长。不久，该行又放宽贷款条件限制，鼓励银行增加贷款。

At the forum, Ma estimated annual gross domestic output growth would increase by 0.12 percentage point if the price of crude oil drops by 10 percent year on year, Xinhua said.

讨论会上马骏指出，如果年均油价降低10%，中国2015年平均GDP增速可提高0.12%。

The government is expected to announce fourth-quarter GDP on Jan. 20.

本月20日，中国政府将对外公布第四季度GDP。