【CNBC 20150213】2018年中国或将超美国成全球最大零售市场

独秀文译青年

【原文标题】China to top US as biggest retail market by 2018

【中文标题】2018年中国或将超美国成全球最大零售市场

【文章来源】CNBC

【文章链接】http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-top-us-biggest-retail-053639254.html

China will surpass the United States as the world's largest retail market within the next three years, according to new research.

据最新研究表明，2018年中国或将超越美国成为全球最大销售市场。

Retail sales volume growth will hit 7.9 percent by 2018, compared with 2.6 percent for North America and the global average of 3.4 percent, PwC and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in a joint report on Thursday.

据普华永道和经济学人智库周四发布的报告指出，在2018年中国零售销售量年增长达7.9%，相比之下，北美仅2.6%，全球则为3.4%。

A look at China's trajectory reveals a dwindling pace of growth over the years, yet its figures remain well above global peers.

尽管从数据上看到中国近年来增长速度有所放缓，但放眼全球其仍远超其他国家。

"Despite its slower growth, China remains irresistible to global retail chains. Although annual retail volume has fallen from 15.6 percent in 2009, China is still expected to average growth of 8.7 percent in the next two years," the report said.

报告称“尽管增长放缓，但中国对于全球零售商来说还是十分具有诱惑力的。尽管中国年零售销售量增速从2009年的15.6%一直跌落，但中国在未来两年里还是有希望稳定在8.7%的水平。”

Home to 19 percent of the world's population, the rise of the Chinese consumer became increasingly important over past decade thanks to higher wages, booming urbanization and improved standards of living. By 2022, McKinsey estimates that 75 percent of the mainland's residents will be classified as middle class, compared with just 4 percent in 2012.

中国人口占全球人口的19%，由于工资上涨、城镇化迅速发展、生活水平提高，中国消费者的消费水平不断提高。管理咨询公司McKinsey预计，到2022年大陆居民将有75%成为中产阶级，相比之下2012年仅有4%。

Businesses worldwide have taken notice. Foreign direct investment into China hit $128 billion in 2014, overtaking the U.S. for the first time in nearly a decade, the United Nations Conference of Trade and Development said last month.

世界各企业也都注意到这一趋势。据联合国贸易与发展会议上月指出，2014年外资直接投资中国的金额达1280亿美元，是近十年来首次超过美国。

International markets are fearful about a protracted slowdown in the mainland after 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 7.4 percent, the slowest pace since 1990. However, PwC and the EIU believe that such concerns are overhyped.

2014年中国7.4%的GDP增速创造了24年以来的新低。国际市场对中国经济增速放缓表示担心，但普华永道和经济学人智库称这种担心被过度放大了。

"Yes, China is slowing down, but compared to the West, its GDP growth is enviable," Jon Copestake, chief retail and consumer goods analyst at Economist Intelligence Unit, said in the report.

经济学人智库首席售业分析师Jon Copestake称：“是的，中国经济是在放缓，但对比与西方，中国的GDP增速还是非常让人羡慕的。”

U.S. real GDP increased 2.4 percent last year.

2014年美国GDP实际增速达2.4%。

"Having said that getting the basics right is crucial [for retailers.] That means engaging with local partners and developing products to cater to local tastes," he added.

Jon Copestake还提到，“对于零售商来说正确把握基本方向尤为关键。零售商应该与当地建立合作关系，并且开发产品的过程要结合当地风俗。”

Still, healthy growth won't be enough for retailers operating in China, the report warned.

报告建议，零售商经营不能单纯依靠中国经济的良好表现。

"Retailers are having to rethink their strategies - with most brick and mortar players increasingly moving towards fast moving e-commerce channels," it said, noting Chinese consumers are among the world's most active users of mobile technology and social media.

零售商应该调整经济策略，扩展消费品电子零售的渠道，尤其是通过移动设备销售。

It's not just China that retailers should bet on. Asian sales volumes are projected to hit $10.3 trillion in 2018, double the $5 trillion projected for North America, according to the report.

除了中国，零售商还有其他选择。报告里提到，2018年亚洲零售销售额预计将达到10.3万亿美元，而北美仅为5万亿美元，前者比后者多了一倍。

After China, growth is the highest in India with sales volumes expected to hit 6.6 percent in 2018, followed by Vietnam and the Philippines.

排在中国之后的为印度，2018年印度的年零售销售量预计将达6.6%，紧接着印度的分别为越南和菲律宾。

India's chances at catching up with China remain slim however, the report warned: "A lack of reform and the government's unwillingness to open up its multi-brand retail market to foreign investments mean that global retailers are losing out in a market that is expected to pass the $1 trillion mark in 2015."

报告指出，印度追赶上中国的几率不大。“印度缺乏经济改革，政府不愿意对外资开放多品牌零售业，否则2015年全球零售商在印度的零售销售额就可达到1万亿美元。”

红旗跃过汀江

应该没有多少人会被这份所谓“最新研究”所忽悠。