【商业周刊 20150206】中国的省份——几家欢乐几家愁

满仓

【中文标题】中国的省份——几家欢乐几家愁
【原文标题】The Diverging Fates of China's Provinces
【登载媒体】商业周刊
【原文作者】Malcolm Scott
【原文链接】http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/the-diverging-fates-of-china-s-provinces


从紧邻西伯利亚寒冷的东北，到比邻泰国潮湿闷热的西南，中国的经济增长就像地理分布一样千差万别。



尽管世界第二大经济体在去年的增幅放缓到7.4％——勉强达成共产党政府调整后的“大约7.5％”的目标，但是各地区的数字差异巨大。看起来更像是欧洲国家的经济数字，而不是我们早已熟悉的“水涨船高”的中国。



我们依然会看到“德国式”的省份：专攻出口的沿海高端产品省份江苏、浙江和福建。他们都超过了2014年增长目标大约0.5个百分点。



新兴省份重庆和贵州。和他们的沿海表兄相比发力较晚，但后来居上，数字看起来也不错。暂且把它们当作波兰——廉价劳动力和土地成本，吸引企业投资，辅助出口。两个省份与去年相比增幅都超过10个百分点。



人口大省湖南、湖北和河南——共有2.19亿人口——基本达成了增长目标，这主要来源于大手笔的投资。恐怕在欧洲找不到与这里人口规模相匹配的国家。



我们还发现了一个经济增长与冰岛类似的省份——西藏。这个广袤多山的地区面积相当于12个冰岛，是中国31个省份和直辖市中，唯一一个达成2014年经济增长原始指标的省份，达到了12个百分点。政府领导的基础设施建设投资是主要推手。



接下来我们看看发育不良的几位。5个百分点按欧洲标准来看算是引人瞩目了，但是在中国，这是暴跌。依赖煤矿的北方省份山西，在去年落后目标整整4个百分点。三个东北部的重工业和手工业省份黑龙江、吉林、辽宁都比既定9％的增长目标落后了将近6个百分点。



尽管北京的政策制定者们还不需要为这种“希腊退出欧盟”式的威胁所烦恼，但未来的确有可能会头痛。

德国银行首席中国经济学家张志伟在1月30日的邮件中说：“鉴于经济增长的疲软和财政压力，地方政府没有以前那样野心勃勃的心态了。财政收入的下降是中国最不愿看到的现象，这将会让整体GDP骤降”到这个季度的6.8％。

与欧洲一样，经济增长放缓在这个星期降低准备金率之后，还会出现更多的量化宽松政策。






原文：

From the biting-cold northeast bordering Siberia to the humid southwest next to Thailand, China's growth rates are diverging almost as much as its geography.

While the world's second-largest economy slowed to a 7.4 percent expansion last year -- just squeaking into the communist government's "about 7.5 percent" target range -- regional data presents a fractured landscape more akin to Europe's than the rising-tide-floats-all-boats numbers we're used to from China.

There's still a Germany: the wealthier export-focused and high-end manufacturing coastal region spanning Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian. All were within about half a percentage point of their 2014 growth goals.

The emerging provinces of Chongqing and Guizhou -- later developers than their coastal cousins -- look OK, too. Let's mark them down as China's Poland, with lower labor and land costs attracting factories and helping exports. Both posted plus-10-percent expansions last year.

The population-heavy Hunan, Hubei and Henan -- with a combined 219 million people -- almost matched their growth targets, with investment sustaining these massive economies. They're way too populous to fit our European analogy, though.  

There's even an Iceland-like outperformer: Tibet. The vast, mountainous region -- which is about 12 times the size of tiny Iceland -- was the only one of China's 31 provinces and municipalities to match its 2014 target, racing ahead at 12 percent. Government-led infrastructure investment is behind its boom.

Then we come to the sick men. While an expansion of about 5 percent would be stellar by European standards, in China that's a slump. The coal-dependent northern province of Shanxi missed its expansion target by a full 4 percentage points last year. Three other heavy industry and commodities driven north-eastern provinces -- Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning -- all lagged with expansions near 6 percent, below targets of 8 or 9 percent.

While policymakers in Beijing don't have to contend with Grexit-like threats, there are headaches ahead.

"Given the sluggish economic growth and fiscal pressure from dropping land sales, local governments have become much less ambitious than before,'' Deutsche Bank AG's chief China economist Zhang Zhiwei wrote in a Jan. 30 note. "The decline of fiscal revenue is the top risk in China and will lead to a sharp slowdown in GDP'' to 6.8 percent this quarter.

Like Europe, the slowdown may prompt more monetary easing after this week's reduction in banks' reserve ratio requirements.