【彭博社 20150302】前高盛总管：中国与1990年的日本如此相似

独秀文译青年

【原文标题】China Will End Up Like Japan, Says Observer Who Called It in 1990

【中文标题】前高盛总管：中国与1990年的日本如此相似

【文章来源】彭博社

【文章链接】http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-partner-called-japans-demise-220000765.html;_ylt=AwrBJR5vZfZUZEwAHznQtDMD

(Bloomberg) -- Forecasts for China to surpass the U.S. as the world’s main economic power are misplaced. So says an observer who foresaw Japan’s eventual demise a year before its land-price bubble began to burst.

前高盛总管称，“中国经济将超越美国经济的预测是错误的”。这位观察家在日本房地产经济泡沫破裂前一年曾预测日本将陷入衰退。

“The vulnerabilities in China today are very similar to the vulnerabilities in Japan,” said Roy Smith, 76, who was a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner when he wrote a column saying Japan’s rise as a financial hegemon was done. “Nobody agrees with me. But they didn’t agree with me in 1990, so at least I have one right.”

今年76岁的Roy Smith曾是高盛集团的合伙人，现任纽约大学商学院教授。曾成功预测日本迅猛的经济发展将会陷入衰退的Smith说：“中国经济的弱点和当时的日本非常相似，但没有人同意我的观点。但是1990年也没有人认同我的意见，那至少那时我预测成功了。”

Among the risks: bad loans, overpriced stocks and a frothy property market are flashing danger for China’s economy and putting pressure on a fragile financial system -- similar to conditions that triggered Japan’s fall, said Smith, a finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. A further parallel is the burden of an aging population, with mounting pension and health-care costs, he says.

坏账、定价过高的股票、房地产泡沫正在冲击中国经济，让本来就脆弱的金融系统承受更大压力，而这种情况正是导致当时日本衰退的因素。还有一个相似点就是人口老龄化问题，加大了社会对养老金和医疗费用的负担。

While China probably will avoid prolonged Japan-style stagnation, a major crisis could expose weaknesses that aren’t apparent now, according to Smith.

但Smith称，中国发生这种危机的时间也许将不会持续那么长，目前中国经济的弱点还不是非常的明显。

“Most people today are talking about China displacing the United States as the great power of the 21st century,” he said in a telephone interview last week. “My view is that it is more likely to end up like Japan -- that is, the status of a former would-be superpower that isn’t.”

他在上周接受电话采访时提到，“很多人都说中国将要取代美国成为21世纪的头号大国。我认为中国最终很有可能获得类似日本经济在1990年的结局——看似要成为头号大国但事实却没有”

China’s Rise

中国的崛起

China surpassed Japan as the world’s No. 2 economy by gross domestic product in 2010 after three decades of rapid growth, fueled by the largest urbanization in history. It is tipped by many forecasters eventually to overtake the U.S. in output. By other measures, such as GDP per person, China is further behind the U.S.

经过三十年经济的快速增长和史上最大的城镇化发展，中国GDP在2010年超过日本升至全球第二。多数预测家都认为中国在GDP总量将超过取代美国的位置。但论人均GDP而言，中国目前远落后于美国。

On a per-capita basis, China’s GDP in 2013 was still just half of where Japan was in 1960, according to World Bank data. That leaves plenty of scope to catch up to rich-world peers, more optimistic observers say.

据世界银行数据显示，2013年中国人均GDP仍处于日本1960年一半的水平。许多观察员给出比较乐观的评论称，要赶上发达国家，中国还有很大的上升空间。

“The key difference I see between China now and Japan in 1990 is that China is at a much lower stage of development,” said Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Hong Kong, who previously worked at the World Bank.

苏格兰皇家银行集团香港分行的首席中国经济分析师Louis Kuijis说：“今天的中国和1990年的日本最大的不同在于，中国目前处于较低阶段的发展。”

Even so, China’s progress has confronted mounting challenges in recent years. In 2014, the economy expanded at the slowest full-year pace in almost a quarter century.

即使这样，中国经济发展道路近年来还是遭遇了越来越多的挑战。2014年中国经济增速创下24年来的最低。

Rocks, Slime

危机四伏

“They say a rising tide lifts all boats -- a falling tide reveals all the rocks and slime,” said Smith. ‘There was a lot of it in Japan that people did not expect to see.’’

Smith认为“人们说潮来时水涨船高，潮去时满地岩沙。当年日本也暴露了很多人们无法预料的问题。”

The former Goldman Sachs executive doesn’t claim to have a flawless forecasting record or to have been the only one who tipped Japan’s economic decline.

这位前高盛高管并不是没有出错的时候，也不是唯一预测日本衰退的人。

Still, his October 1990 predictions on Japan proved prescient. Made amid a tumble in the stock market that year, they preceded the pricking of the country’s property bubble. In a column in the New York Times, he assessed that Japanese manufacturers would shift production abroad and that the nation’s banks would be impaired by losses on property loans.

然而，他对1990年日本的预判可谓颇具先见之明。当年日本股市大跌，他们认为房地产泡沫也要破裂。他在《纽约时报》的专栏里预判日本制造业将转向海外生产，而日本国内的银行因房地产贷款遭遇重大损失。

c0215

不把中国说的崩溃在眼前怎么把钱挡在中国门外然后赶到美国去现在欧洲乌克兰一开炮已经挡住了，下一步就是中国日本中东这些了

黄陂湖人

人口老龄化，劳动人口减少，计划生育政策害死人。

hegieer

日本叫失去的20年，我们叫新常态20年。一样的。