【商业周刊 20141207】悲观的2015年

满仓

【中文标题】悲观的2015年
【原文标题】A Pessimist's Guide to the World in 2015
【登载媒体】商业周刊
【原文链接】http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-flash-points/



南中国海的摩擦导致全面海上战争；以色列轰炸伊朗，让中东局势全面升级；尼日利亚在油价持续走低的情况下面临崩溃，激进组织实力日益壮大。《商业周刊》向外交政策分析人士、军事专家、经济学家和投资者征求了有关世界未来最糟糕的状态的意见，基于目前的全球冲突，这恐怕是他们最不愿看到的2015年。

叙利亚


在伊斯兰国和阿萨德政府消灭了温和反对派的残余势力之后，叙利亚的暴力延伸到黎巴嫩、约旦、土耳其和其它地区。

以色列


巴勒斯坦反对以色列的第三次起义在三月大选后爆发，并演化成包括巴勒斯坦正统基督教组织和以色列周边地区在内的武装冲突。周边国家的军事力量相继瓦解。

伊朗


伊朗无法与其它国家达成停止核计划的一致意见，继续发展核武器。以色列试图组织伊朗的行为，发动了一场区域战争。

约旦河西岸和加沙地带


哈马斯试图获得更大的政治影响力，在约旦河西岸与以色列开战，或者从加沙地带的大本营再次发动攻击。

沙特阿拉伯


90岁高龄的阿卜杜拉过往去世，目前的皇太子萨勒曼79岁。继位正发生在一个敏感的时刻，由数千名年轻沙特人组成的空军正在轰炸伊斯兰国。

波罗的海


弗拉基米尔•普京有意在爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚的俄罗斯少数民族中制造麻烦，还在波兰和拉脱维亚之间的柯尼斯堡建立境外领土，以此来破坏北约成员国之间的关系。近期发生的空中遭遇事件表明俄罗斯在试探北约的底线。

俄罗斯和乌克兰


普京的俄罗斯军队所支持的叛军向西深入乌克兰，与克里米亚打通。美国和欧盟对俄罗斯进一步经济制裁，同时加强对乌克兰政府的军事援助。

南中国海和东中国海


中国海军舰船与渔民在南中国海上发生冲突。中国与日本战斗机在有争议的尖阁列岛/钓鱼岛上空混战。盟国也加入战争，民族主义情绪高涨。

尼日利亚


博科圣地伊斯兰组织的武装力量加强进攻，在尼日利亚东北部控制了更大的所谓哈里发领地。总统古德勒克•乔纳森的军队在非洲人口最多的国家无力镇压反叛力量的崛起。

阿富汗和巴基斯坦


阿富汗和巴基斯坦山区普什图控制范围内的塔利班武装力量与伊斯兰国勾结，在美国撤离驻军之后控制了喀布尔和伊斯兰堡。

印度和巴基斯坦


2008年发生在孟买的恐怖袭击中，巴基斯坦的一个武装组织袭击了豪华酒店和一个火车站。总理纳伦德拉•莫迪的印度民族主义党派印度人民党被迫做出强势回应，导致这两个持有核武器的邻国之间出现危机。

朝鲜


一艘朝鲜潜艇击沉一艘被其称为从事间谍活动的韩国军舰。为了报复韩国军舰天安号在2010年被击沉的事件，韩国也击沉了一艘朝鲜军舰。

北极


俄罗斯、美国、挪威、丹麦和加拿大就北极地区自然资源归属问题的争执，导致多方军舰对峙。斯瓦尔巴德等地区的领土争议甚嚣尘上，北极冰层的融化增加了当地潜在的商业价值。

伊拉克


伊斯兰国武装力量发起了全面的宗派战争，什叶派穆斯林主要力量对阵逊尼派少数力量。这个国家石油生产的停滞让美国和其它地区力量也陷入冲突中。

希腊


希腊政府倒台，反欧盟领导人阿莱克斯•齐普拉斯上台，进一步虚弱了希腊在欧盟中的地位，很多欧盟国家已经在面对极端主义运动的挑战。欧盟政策委员会未能及时响应，债券市场受到波及，重燃欧元区危机。



原文：

Skirmishes in the South China Sea lead to full-scale naval confrontation. Israel bombs Iran, setting off an escalation of violence across the Middle East. Nigeria crumbles as oil prices fall and radicals gain strength. Bloomberg News asked foreign policy analysts, military experts, economists and investors to identify the possible worst-case scenarios, based on current global conflicts, that concern them most heading into 2015.

Syria

Potential Flashpoint:

Violence from Syria spills over into Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and beyond after Islamic State and the Assad regime defeat the last vestiges of the moderate opposition.

Israel

Potential Flashpoint:

A third Palestinian uprising against Israel breaks out after the March elections. It turns into a violent struggle involving increasingly fundamentalist Palestinian and Israeli fringes. Militants from neighboring countries flock to the fray.

Iran

Potential Flashpoint:

Iran, failing to reach agreement with world powers on limiting its nuclear program, pushes through with development of a nuclear weapon. Israel moves to stop Iran’s efforts, setting off a regional war.

West Bank / Gaza

Potential Flashpoint:

Hamas, seeking to gain more political clout, opens a new front with Israel from the West Bank or renews attacks from its Gaza Strip stronghold.

Saudi Arabia

Potential Flashpoint:

King Abdullah, 90, dies. The current crown prince, Salman, is 79. A succession takes place at a sensitive moment as the Saudi Air Force keeps bombing Islamic State, which thousands of young Saudis have joined.

Baltics

Potential Flashpoint:

Vladimir Putin undermines NATO members by stirring up trouble with Russian minorities in Estonia and Latvia, and with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave between Poland and Lithuania. Recent airspace encounters show Russia’s willingness to test NATO’s capabilities.

Russia / Ukraine

Potential Flashpoint:

Putin-backed rebels, supported by Russian forces, drive further west in Ukraine to create a land corridor to join up with Crimea. That triggers deeper economic sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union and forces them to accelerate military support to the government.

South China Sea, East China Sea

Potential Flashpoint:

Confrontations break out between Chinese navy vessels and fishermen in South China Sea; Chinese and Japanese fighter jets engage in a dogfight over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. The escalation brings in allies, inflaming nationalistic tensions.

Nigeria

Potential Flashpoint:

Militants from the Boko Haram Islamist group increase their attacks, gaining control of more territory for their self-styled caliphate in northeastern Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan’s military fails to stem the rise of the insurgency in Africa’s most populous nation.

Afghanistan / Pakistan

Potential Flashpoint:

Taliban militants in the mountainous Pashtun-dominated regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan link up with Islamic State. They make progress in their quest to take power in Kabul and Islamabad as the U.S. reduces its troop presence.

India / Pakistan

Potential Flashpoint:

A terrorist attack occurs on the scale of Mumbai in 2008, when luxury hotels and a train station were attacked by a Pakistan-based militant group. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) is pressured into a harsh response, triggering a crisis between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

North Korea

Potential Flashpoint:

A North Korean submarine sinks a South Korean ship claiming it was spying. Citing the sinking of South Korean ship Cheonan in 2010, South Korea retaliates by sinking a North Korean vessel.

Arctic

Potential Flashpoint:

Growing tensions among Russia, the U.S., Norway, Denmark and Canada over who owns the right to natural resources in the Arctic leads to direct standoffs between vessels. Disputes arise over territories such as Svalbard as climate change melts more Arctic ice and increases the commercial potential of the region.

Iraq

Potential Flashpoint:

Islamic State militants ignite a full-blown sectarian war, pitting the Shiite Muslim majority against the Sunni minority. This disrupts the country’s oil production and draws U.S. and regional powers into the conflict.

Greece

Potential Flashpoint:

Greece’s government falls, bringing to power anti-euro opposition leader Alexis Tsipras and weakening Greece’s status among euro countries, some of which face extremist movements of their own. Hamstrung European policy makers fail to respond. Contagion spreads through the region’s bond markets, reigniting the euro-zone crisis.

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