为什么中国的股市这么重要[外国评论]

Annie2014

【中文标题】为什么中国的股市这么重要[外国评论]
【英文标题】Why China's Stock Markets Matter
【更新时间】11 July2015
【更新链接】
http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/why-chinas-stock-markets-matter?post=68619&utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=referral
【原文来源】talkmarkets.com
【原文作者】StratforStaff of Stratfor
【正文】
Analysis
分析
Beijing will continue tointervene where possible to prop up markets and market sentiment.            
北京将继续干预可以支撑市场和支撑市场情绪的地方。

A collapse of the stock market would likely increase deposits inordinary bank accounts.
股市的崩溃可能会增加普通银行账户里的存款。

This would compel Beijing to rely more heavily on banks to fuelgrowth and pressure China to accelerate financial liberalization efforts as away to cultivate household consumption.
这将迫使中国政府加大对银行的依赖来促进增长并且压迫中国来加快金融自由化的努力，以此作为一种培养家庭消费的方式。

An investor passes a share prices board at a security firm inHangzhou province, eastern China.(STR/AFP/Getty Images)
一个投资者通过了在中国东部杭州省一个安全公司举办的一个股市董事会。

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 6 percent on July 3, rounding outa 28 percent decline since June 12, when the country's stock markets peaked.The deterioration occurred despite intensive government efforts to stabilizeprices and revive investor sentiment. Overt attempts by Beijing includedcutting benchmark interest rates and reserve requirement ratios and looseningrestrictions on investor access to margin loans, in addition to less overtmoves, such as direct interventions to prop up the market withgovernment-backed purchases of blue chip stocks. On Friday, in a clear bid towin investor confidence in its oversight abilities, the securities regulator announcedit would investigate signs of potential market manipulation. Yet so far,Beijing's efforts have failed to achieve the desired effect of stimulating, orat least stabilizing, China's leading stock markets.
7月3日，上证综合指数下跌6%，自6月12日该国股市涨停以来下降了28%。尽管政府的强化措施是为了稳定价格以及恢复投资者信心，但是恶化还是发生了。中国政府的公开尝试包括消减基准利率和存款准备金率，并且放松对投资者保证金贷款的限制，除了一些措施外，例如直接干预以政府为支撑的蓝筹股的市场。周五，证券监管机构明确了争取投资者信心的表示并且宣布将调查潜在市场操纵的迹象。然而，到目前为止，中国政府未能达到预期效果的刺激，或者至少稳定中国领先的股票市场。

Nurturing Consumer Growth
培养消费增长

The Chinese government's core policy goal — the crux of its entireeconomic reform and rebalancing program — is to cultivate a domestic consumerbase capable of supporting nationwide growth that is stable, sustainable andless exposed to fluctuations in external demand. To do this requires a boost inaverage incomes to a level where non-essential purchases become feasible forordinary people. Additionally, China needs to instill in its citizens a senseof financial security adequate enough to convince them to spend — rather thansave — their disposable income.
中国政府的核心政策目标，整个经济改革和调整项目的关键是培养支持稳定，可持续以及减少暴露于外部需求波动的国内消费基地。这样做需要增加人均收入水平到一个不必要的购买对于普通人来说也是可以接受的这样一个程度。此外，中国需要灌输给公民足够的金融安全意识来说服他们消费，而不是储蓄他们的可支配收入。

China was a country of near-universal poverty. Its post-1978economic growth model, grounded as it was in low-cost exports and state-ledinvestment into infrastructure construction, necessitated two policies: thesystematic repression of manufacturing wages to maintain the competitiveness ofexports and the suppression of interest rates on savings deposits. Keepinginterest rates low ensured cheap financing for China's state-owned sector,which was responsible for the vast majority of infrastructure development andwhich survived on credit from state-controlled banks. These factors, more thanany supposed cultural inclination to save, explain China's extraordinarily lowlevels of private household consumption relative to other parts of its economy— and compared to consumption levels in other countries.
中国曾是一个普遍贫困的国家。随着中国低成本出口和政府主导的投资基础建设需要两个政策：控制制造业的工资来保持竞争力的出口以及压制储蓄存款利率后，1978年后的经济增长模式建立了。保持低利率确保了中国国有部门的廉价融资，这个部门负责大多数的基础设施建设并且从国有银行信贷中幸存下来。这些因素，应该比任何文化倾向都有可能保留下来，解释着中国与其他经济体有联系，并且相对于其他国家比较低的私人家庭消费。
（四月网Annie2014独家编译自talkmarket网）

hegieer

央企国企的混合制改革(即国有股份减持)需要，银行坏账的证券化销售需要。