设为首页收藏本站

四月青年社区

 找回密码
 注册会员

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

查看: 351|回复: 1

[外媒编译] 美国教授谈2017:会出现新气象,还是会更动荡

[复制链接]
发表于 2016-12-24 22:20 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
美国教授谈2017|《全球脑库》:新的一年,会出现新气象,还是会更动荡?2016-12-22 从余启 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。
我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。
欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。

本期导读:2017年的脚步,越来越近了。2017年的世界,将会是一个怎么样的世界呢?或许,回望一下历史,对于解决人们脑中的困惑、慰藉人们心底的不安,会有些许裨益。毕竟,人类的发展过程中,迷失方向之时,都总会反观以往走过的轨迹,并从中搜寻未来方向的线索,让历史来照亮未来

不管是历史中成功的经验,抑或失败的教训,若能撷取适当的角度来对待,运用得当的方法来处理,便可成为健康养分,为还未到来的未来提供滋养,对于整个人类是这样,对于单个民族、国家、个人抑或社会组织,这个道理都是相通的,只不过会因情况不同,可能涉及直接经验或间接经验的区分罢了。

对于当下这个时代,让人想起狄更斯《双城记》中那段著名的话:这是一个最好的时代,也是一个最坏的时代;这是明智的时代,这是愚昧的时代;这是信任的纪元,这是怀疑的纪元;我们面前应有尽有,我们面前一无所有;我们都将直上天堂,我们都将直下地狱。

本期,将要与大家共享的,是篇由一位美国教授就1977年与2017年世界所具有的不确定性进行对比的小文。下面,就让我们来看看,在这位美国教授的眼中,横跨40年之久的两个时代之间,会有什么相同之处,又会有什么不同。


The Age of Hyper-Uncertainty
超级不确定的年代

The year 2017 will mark the 40th anniversary of the publication of John Kenneth Galbraith’s The Age of Uncertainty. Forty years is a long time, but it is worth looking back and reminding ourselves of how much Galbraith and his readers had to be uncertain about.
2017年,将迎来美国经济学家加尔布雷斯的著作《不确定的年代》出版40周年。四十年的时间,不算短,也因此,值得回望一下,并回味加尔布雷斯以及当时的人们,都在为什么样的不确定性而操心操肺。

1.hyper ['haɪpə] adj. 亢奋的;高度紧张的;n. 宣传人员
2.John Kenneth Galbraith(1908~2006 )美国著名经济学家,哈佛大学教授,新制度学派主要代表人物

In 1977, as Galbraith was writing, the world was still reeling from the effects of the first OPEC oil-price shock and wondering whether another one was in the pipeline (as it were). The United States was confronting slowing growth and accelerating inflation, or stagflation, a novel problem that raised questions about policymakers’ competence and the adequacy of their economic models. Meanwhile, efforts to rebuild the Bretton Woods international monetary system had collapsed, casting a shadow over prospects for international trade and global economic growth.
1977年,加尔布雷斯正在写那本书的时候,世界依然还没完全摆脱第一次石油危机冲击的影响,人们怀疑,石油危机会否再次发生(后来还真的发生了)。当时,美国面临增速下行、通胀飙升、经济滞胀等问题,这也让人们对决策者的能力以及经济模式的有效性提出了质疑。与此同时,重建布雷顿森林货币体系的努力最终也不了了之,这都给国际贸易的发展以及全球经济的增长蒙上了厚厚的阴影。

1.reel [riːl] vi. 卷;眩晕;蹒跚地走;退缩;vt. 卷;使旋转;n. 蹒跚;眩晕;旋转
2.stagflation [stæg'fleɪʃ(ə)n] n. [经] 滞胀,不景气状况下之物价上涨

For all these reasons, the golden age of stability and predictability that was the third quarter of the twentieth century seemed to have abruptly drawn to a close, to be succeeded by a period of greatly heightened uncertainty.
鉴于这所有的一切,二十世纪后半叶前期那种具有稳定性、可预测性的黄金年代,瞬间一去不返,随之而来的是,一个充满急剧不确定性的时期

That’s how things looked in 1977, anyway. Viewed from the perspective of 2017, however, the uncertainty of 1977 seems almost enviable. In 1977, there was no President Donald Trump. Jimmy Carter may not go down in history as one of the best US presidents, but he did not threaten actions that placed the entire global system at risk. He did not turn his back on America’s international commitments such as NATO and the World Trade Organization.
不管怎样,1977年的时候,整个世界就是那个样子。不过,若要站在2017年回望1977年,与当下这个年代相比,那时的不确定性就完全是小巫见大巫了。首先,1977年那时,没有像特朗普那样的美国总统。尽管当时的美国总统卡特可能不会以美国最佳总统被载入史册,但卡特却也没像特朗普那样,威胁要采取种种行动,置整个全球经济体系于不顾,卡特也没像特朗普那样,把美国对诸如北约、世贸组织等所承担的国际责任说扔就扔。

1.enviable ['envɪəb(ə)l] adj. 值得羡慕的;引起忌妒的

Nor did Carter go to war with the Federal Reserve or pack its board with sympathetic appointees willing to sacrifice sound money to his reelection prospects. On the contrary, he appointed Paul Volcker, a towering pillar of monetary stability, as chairman of the Board of Governors. And although Carter did not succeed in balancing the federal budget, he didn’t blow it up, either.
卡特也没与美联储龃龉不断,也没安插亲信滥用货币权力以期为再次当选总统铺路。反而,卡特把堪称货币稳定之柱的沃尔克任命为美联储主席,而且,尽管卡特没能让联邦预算实现平衡,但也没让联邦预算赤字达到崩溃的程度。

1.sympathetic [sɪmpə'θetɪk] adj. 同情的;交感神经的;共鸣的;赞同的;和谐的;合意的;n. 交感神经;容易感受的人
2.towering ['taʊərɪŋ] adj. 高耸的;卓越的;激烈的

Whether Trump slaps a tariff on Chinese goods, repudiates the North American Free Trade Agreement, packs the Federal Reserve Board, or undermines fiscal sustainability remains to be seen. Conceivable outcomes range from mildly reassuring to utterly catastrophic. Who knows what will happen? By today’s standards, Carter was the embodiment of predictability.
特朗普上台后,会否对中国商品加征关税,会否解散北美自贸协议,会否在美联储安插亲信,会否侵蚀美国财政的可持续性,这一切都有待观察。不过,特朗普所将起到的角色,从适度的积极作用到彻底的破坏作用,都需纳入考虑范围,因为,没谁有把握知道,特朗普任期内将会发生什么。以今天的标准来衡量,卡特时期,堪称具有可预测性的典范时期

1.slap[slæp] vt. 拍击;侮辱;掌击;掴…的耳光;n. 掴;侮辱;掌击;拍打声;vi. 掴;拍击;adv. 直接地;猛然地;恰好
2.repudiate[rɪ'pjuːdɪeɪt] vt. 拒绝;否定;批判;与…断绝关系;拒付
3.conceivable [kən'siːvəb(ə)l] adj. 可能的;想得到的,可想像的
4.embodiment [ɪm'bɒdɪmənt] n. 体现;化身;具体化

In 1977, moreover, the prospects for European integration were rosy. Denmark, Ireland, and, most notably, the United Kingdom had recently joined a rapidly growing European Community. The EC was attracting members, not losing them. It was a club that countries sought to join precisely in order to achieve faster economic growth.
还有,1977年那时,欧洲一体化前景正红红火火。丹麦、爱尔兰以及最具重要意义的英国,都加入了快速发展的欧共体。当时的欧共体,成员数量在增长,而非在下降。欧共体成为各个国家都想加入以实现经济快速发展的一个俱乐部。

Moreover, to buttress its common market, the EC had just established a regional monetary system, the suggestively named “snake in the tunnel.” While this was far from a perfect monetary system, it had one very positive attribute: countries could leave in hard economic times, and rejoin if and when the outlook brightened.
还有,为巩固共同市场,欧共体也成立了区域货币体系,被誉为“蛇形浮动汇率体系”。尽管这还远不能称得上是一个完美的货币体系,但它已有了一项具有积极意义的特征:经济不好时大家可以退出,经济前景向好时大家可再加入。

1.buttress ['bʌtrɪs] n. 扶壁;拱壁;支撑物;vt. 支持;以扶壁支撑
2.attribute [ə'trɪbjuːt] n. 属性;特质;vt. 归属;把…归于

In 2017, in contrast, negotiations over Brexit will continue to cast a dark cloud of uncertainty over the European Union. How those negotiations will proceed and how long they will take are anyone’s guess. Moreover, the main questions raised by Britain’s decision to leave – whether other countries will follow and, indeed, whether the EU itself has a future – remain far from resolved.
比较来看,2017年,英国脱欧谈判,将继续为欧盟的不确定性,蒙上厚厚的一层阴影。脱欧谈判进展将会如何,将会延宕多久,都是未知数。而且,英国决定脱欧引发的系列问题,包括其他国家会不会效仿也脱欧,更为重要的是,欧盟它自己本身未来会如何,都还远未找到答案。

Meanwhile Europe’s monetary house remains half built. The eurozone is neither appealing enough to attract additional members nor flexible enough to grant troubled incumbents a temporary holiday, in the manner of the currency snake. The euro will likely survive the year, inertia being what it is. Beyond that, it is difficult to say.
与此同时,欧洲的货币体系,依然处于半拉子状态。欧元区既没足够的魅力吸引更多的新成员加入,也没充分的弹性以蛇形浮动汇率体系的方式,为遭受磨难的现有成员提供一个喘息期。欧元扛过今年应该不会有问题,因为,惯性使然。而过了今年,欧元的情况将会如何,那可就难说了。

1.incumbent[ɪn'kʌmb(ə)nt] adj. 现任的;依靠的;负有职责的;n. 在职者;现任者;领圣俸者
2.inertia [ɪ'nɜːʃə] n. [力] 惯性;惰性,迟钝;不活动

In 1977, uncertainties emanating from emerging markets were not on commentators’ radar screens. Developing countries in Latin America and East Asia were growing, although they depended increasingly on a drip feed of foreign loans from money-center banks. China, still largely cut off from the world, did not figure in this discussion. And even if something went wrong in the Third World, developing countries were simply too small to drag down the global economy.
1977年那时,源自新兴市场国家的不确定性,不会进入人们的考虑范围。那时,拉美以及东亚的发展中国家的经济也都在增长,尽管大都主要靠国外贷款的拉动。当时,中国与世界市场体系之间基本还没什么联系,完全不会进入人们的视野。而且,即使第三世界发生点什么问题,发展中国家的经济总量是如此之小,因此也不足以给全球经济带来什么影响。

1.emanate ['eməneɪt] vt. 放射;发散;vi. 发出;散发;发源

The situation today couldn’t be more different. What happens in China, Brazil, or Turkey doesn’t stay in China, Brazil, or Turkey. On the contrary, developments in these countries have first-order implications for the world economy, given how emerging markets have accounted for the majority of global growth in recent years. China has an unmanageable corporate-debt problem and a government whose commitment to restructuring the economy is uncertain. Turkey has a massive current-account deficit, an erratic president, and an unstable geopolitical neighborhood. And if political scandals were export goods, Brazil would have a clear comparative advantage.
当下的这个世界,情况与那时候有着天壤之别。中国、巴西或土耳其发生的事情,其影响所能波及的范围,绝不会仅限于中国、巴西或土耳其。现实是,在这些国家发生的一切,都会对整个世界经济带来直接影响,因为,近年来,新兴市场国家已成为全球经济增长的主要力量。目前,在中国,公司债务杠杆太高难以把控,政府对经济结构转型的努力,也不见得会持续下去并进而产生实效。在土耳其,经常项目贸易赤字庞大无比,总统先生个性阴晴不定,地缘政治状况动荡不安。而在巴西,其最具比较优势的领域,非政界丑闻莫属了。

1.erratic [ɪ'rætɪk] adj. 不稳定的;古怪的;n. 漂泊无定的人;古怪的人

Although The Age of Uncertainty was about much more than the year 1977, it captured the tenor of the times. But if Galbraith were writing the same book in 2017, he probably would call the 1970s The Age of Assurance.
尽管《不确定的年代》所讲的,不仅限于1977那一年,但它却抓住了那个时代的主旋律。不过,若加尔布雷斯要在2017年写一本同类型的书,他很可能会把1970年代出的那本更名为《确定的年代》

1.tenor ['tenə] n. 男高音;要旨,大意;票据的限期;稳定的进程;adj. 男高音的


Contributor: Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley; Pitt Professor of American History and Institutions at the University of Cambridge; and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses – and Misuses – of History.
作者简介:巴里·艾肯格林,加州大学伯克利分校经济学教授,剑桥大学美国历史与制度学庇特荣誉讲座教授,国际货币基金组织前高级政策顾问,其最近出版的新书为《以史为镜:大萧条、大衰退及历史的经验与教训》

往期精彩:

货币战争|《经济学人》:美元走势节节高,美国是否又要开始剪羊毛
财富世界|《2016年全球财富报告》:财富往哪里流,有它自己的规律
诗图一家|《浓妆淡抹总相宜》:人生舞台是宽广的,角色种类是多样的
寿命那点儿事儿|《天下人》:长命百岁难,难于上青天

注:
1:本文为原创,若发现不错,可转发共享,转载请注明出处。
2:也欢迎点击“赞赏”,为原创打赏,感谢支持。
3:英文转自 Project Syndicate,该网站主要发布全球各领域大咖文章,故称之“全球脑库”,非商业用途,仅限个人学习之目的。
4:译文不代表译者观点,若有任何问题,欢迎联系沟通。
5:可设置为“置顶公众号”,第一时间收到最新消息。
6:关注可搜索 我与我们的世界 或 meandourworld 也可扫描下方二维码:  


来自群组: 编译们
 楼主| 发表于 2016-12-26 07:50 | 显示全部楼层
2017,动荡的一年。。。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册会员

本版积分规则