|
标题：China's ascendency causing global concern, Pew study finds
China's ascendency causing global concern, Pew study finds
PARIS: With the approach of the Beijing Olympics, the world is eyeing China with concern about its policies and their impact beyond Chinese borders, the Pew Global Attitudes Project has found.
People outside China worry about its growing military power, its influence on affairs in their countries and its role as an environmental offender, the survey shows. Beijing is widely viewed as ignoring the interests of other countries and lacking respect for human rights. But its growing economic power is viewed positively in certain swaths of the world.
On one thing, international opinion agrees: "China's emergence as a world power is clearly reflected in public opinion in all major regions of the world," Pew wrote of the poll, which surveyed more than 24,000 people in 24 countries in March and April.
"In Western Europe," it added, "majorities believe either that China has already replaced the United States as the world's leading superpower or that it will at some point replace the United States."
Analysts said, however, that that belief did not reflect reality, at least not in the foreseeable future.
The top superpower?
"Most people don't have accurate information," said Jerome Cohen, a China expert at New York University and the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations. "My impression is that while China has made remarkable progress and is having an increasing economic impact on the world, it is a long way from replacing the United States."
That impression is echoed by Josef Joffe, editor of the German newspaper Die Zeit, in a recent review of a book examining the rise of China, "The Post-American World" by Fareed Zakaria.
Writing in The New York Times, Joffe calculated that even assuming indefinite Chinese growth of 7 percent and U.S. growth "at its historical rate of 3.5 percent," China's gross domestic product would total $12 trillion by 2028, far below the projected U.S. gross domestic product of $28 trillion.
Favorable views of China have slipped since last year in 9 of the 21 countries for which comparative data are available - although that result could be influenced by the timing of the poll, which was conducted beginning on March 17, a week after civil unrest broke out in Tibet.
In France, for example, only 28 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of China this year, down from 47 percent in 2007. Favorable opinions were held by fewer than one-third of respondents in Spain, Germany, Poland, Turkey and Japan.
In contrast, more than 70 percent of Pakistanis, Nigerians and Tanzanians held favorable views of China, as did 50 percent or more of Russians, Egyptians, Lebanese, Indonesians and Australians, Pew found.
The view that China will eventually supplant the United States as the chief superpower is held by more than 50 percent in Germany, Spain, France, Australia and China itself. In the United States, 31 percent expect China to move into the top superpower position at some point, and, as in China, 5 percent believe it already has.
The opinion that China has already overtaken the United States as the world's leading superpower is shared by more than 10 percent in a host of survey countries: France, Poland, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan, India, Brazil, Mexico and Nigeria.
Respondents in many places see China as having a direct impact on their countries. That is true of 86 percent of Japanese and South Koreans and what Pew describes as "a remarkably high 76 percent of Americans."，
Indians, Indonesians, Pakistanis, Brazilians and the African countries in the survey - Nigeria, South Africa and Tanzania - are more likely than not to view Chinese influence in a positive light, while it is seen as negative in the other survey countries.
Apprehension is particularly high about China's increasing military might. In Japan, Beijing's growing military power is seen as a bad thing by 90 percent of respondents, and in South Korea by 87 percent. That view is shared by more than 80 percent of Americans, French and Germans, and more than 70 percent in Britain, Spain, Russia, Poland and Australia.
"Generally, publics across the world find China's growing economic power less troubling than its increasing military strength," Pew wrote of the results.
But Beijing's economic clout is still seen as a bad thing by more than 50 percent of respondents in France, Germany, Turkey, South Korea and the United States. In Japan, however, 55 percent see Chinese economic development as good for their country, and that view is shared in the African nations polled.
皮尤抽查发现:中国的优势引起世界关注
巴黎:皮尤全球态度项目（以下简称皮尤）发现,随着北京奥运会的临近,世界都在关注着中国的政策以及对国外的影响。
调查显示：国外的人担心的事情包括中国军事力量的增强，中国对这些国家在国际事物上的影响力，中国作为一个环境破坏者的角色等。北京政府被广泛的认为不重视别国利益和不尊重人权。但是它的经济增长力被肯定地认为是世界上的亮点。
皮尤3月份和4月份在24个国家调查了2万4000多人，根据投票结果皮尤写到，有件事国际观点达成一致：“中国作为世界大国的出现已经明显地影响到了世界上绝大多数国家的公众观点”。
皮尤补充说：“在西欧，大多数人相信中国已经取代或即将取代美国成为世界领先的超级大国”。
但是分析家指出，这些观点并不能影响到现实，最起码在一段时间内不会。纽约大学和美国外交关系理事会中国问题专家Jerome Cohen说：“大多数的人没有得到正确的信息，我的印象是尽管中国已经取得了令人瞩目的进步而且正在经济上影响着世界，但超过美国还有很长的一段路要走。”
最近在为Fareed Zakaria的“后美国世界”这本有关研究中国崛起的书做评论的时候，德国《时代周刊》杂志的编辑Josef Joffe也持有这样的观点。
Joffe在纽约时代周刊上写到，假定中国的GDP增长率为7%而美国的增长率维持在“它的历史水平3.5%”,到2028年，中国的GDP为12万亿美元，远低于美国的28万亿美元。
与去年的已有的数据来比较，21个国家中有9个对中国赞许的观点出现了下滑，尽管这样的结果由于投票时间的关系会受到影响，投票的时间开始于3月17号，也就是中国西藏出现动荡局面一周之后。
比如说在法国，今年只有28%的受访者对中国表示认可的观点，低于2007年的47%。受访者表示认可的观点少于三分之一的国家还有：西班牙、德国、波兰、土耳其和日本。
皮尤发现，与些相反，超过70%的巴基斯坦人，尼日利亚人和坦桑尼亚人对中国持认可的观点，50%认可的还有俄罗斯、埃及、黎巴嫩、印度尼西亚和澳大利亚。
在中国将最终取代美国成为主要超级大国的观点上，超过50%的有德国、西班牙、法国、澳大利亚和中国自己。在美国，31%认为中国将在某时成为头号超级大国，而在中国，5%的人认为中国已经是这样。
在受调查的国家中，超过10%的人持有认为中国已经取代美国成为世界超级大国的领导者的观点的国家有：法国、波兰、约旦、埃及、黎巴嫩、巴基斯坦、印度、巴西、墨西哥和尼日利亚。
许多地区的受访者认为中国正在对他们的国家产生了直接的影响。在日本和韩国都有86%的人这样认为，皮尤还描述了“在美国人中的惊人之高的76%。”
调查中印度、印度尼西亚、巴基斯坦、巴西和象尼日利亚、南非和坦桑尼亚这样的非洲国家对中国的影响持肯定的观点，而在受调查的其它国家则持否定的观点。
对中国军事力量增长表示担忧的比率特别的高。在日本，90%的受访者认为北京政府的军事力量增长是一件坏事情。在韩国，这一比率是87%。持此观点超过80%的还有美国、法国、德国，超过70%的国家有英国、西班牙、俄罗斯、波兰和澳大利亚。
皮尤在结论中这样说：“一般来说，全世界的民众发现中国的经济增长要比军事增长带来的麻烦要小”。
但是北京政府的经济上巨大影响仍然被法国、德国、土耳其、韩国和美国超过50%的受访者认为是坏事情。可在日本55%的人认为中国经济的增长对他们来说是好事情，这样的观点同样被非洲国家所认可。
[ 本帖最后由 extremey 于 2008-6-13 14:13 编辑 ] | 
狗仔卡
发表于 2008-6-13 13:54
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
