原文地址
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13145087
China's rural consumers
Pretend you're a Westerner
Feb 19th 2009 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
Buy something you can’t afford
THOSE living in the countryside have been hit hardest by China’s economic slowdown. Yet the media show pictures of gleeful farmers buying televisions and fridges. Since February 1st all China’s more than 200m rural households have been eligible for a government-financed discount on such purchases. From next month they will be entitled to subsidised cars as well. Unfortunately, glee is very confined.
The government has expressed great hopes for rural spenders as a new engine of economic growth. Hence the subsidy scheme: get peasants to spend, goes the official thinking, and the country’s ailing export industries will find a vast new market. The idea was to reduce the household-appliance industry’s bloated capacity and reliance on exports for half its sales. It was also a way to help manufacturers as the yuan appreciated. In 2007 an experiment was launched in three provinces. Rural households could enjoy a 13% discount on a number of items from each category of goods on a list of designated models.
The experiment was due to end last year. But as China’s exports plunged, officials decided to extend it, first to another nine provinces in December and then, this month, nationwide (with added product categories, including motorcycles and computers in some places). It is to run for four years. Its impact so far is hard to assess from patchy official figures. In the first three provinces, the volume of rural sales of household appliances of all kinds in the 11 months ending October 2008 was 40% higher than in the same period a year earlier. But the Economic Observer, a Beijing newspaper, said the sales value of designated products was only 40% of the government’s target. Yan Shengqin of Beihe village, in Shandong province, says the distance to the sole officially approved retail outlet and the limited product range deter him and his neighbours.
The scheme has many sceptics. Officials now estimate that some 20m migrant workers from the countryside have recently lost their jobs. Their remittances to relatives in the countryside had been a big driver of rural spending. So Hu Biliang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences says it would be “good news” if rural incomes, which include earnings by migrant workers, were to grow at all this year. Better, he says, to put more government money into infrastructure and health care, where recent spending increases are still far from enough.
Even some official newspapers have published complaints about the fairness of the scheme (why should poor urban residents not enjoy the same discounts?) and its impact on free competition in the market. The products of many more companies, including a handful of foreign ones, have been added to the lists. But some have suggested it might be fairer and less bureaucratic to give coupons to rural residents to spend as they want, as has been tried in Taiwan. At present, to get their discounts, claimants need to take proof of purchase and residency to a government office. The money may then take 15 working days to reach their accounts.
The government still has high hopes. Fu Ziying, a deputy minister of commerce, claimed in the press that the policy could boost rural sales of consumer goods by 2.5%. “Active consumption is patriotic and being patriotic involves loving oneself,” argued an essay in Liaowang, an official journal. But China’s out-of-work peasants may not be ready to pamper themselves.
中国农村的消费者
自称是西方人
中国农村的消费者们购买着自己消费不起的商品
居住在农村的人们受到了来自中国经济放缓带来的最大的打击。然而，媒体给我们呈现的确实一副农民满心欢喜地购买彩电冰箱的情景。自今年2月1日起，2000多万户农村家庭都能在购买这类商品的时候享受政府财政支持的折扣优惠。而且从下个月开始，他们还将在购买汽车方面享受补贴。然而，不幸的是，这样的欢喜是有限的。
中国政府极其希望农村消费可以作为一股新的力量推动中国经济的增长。因此，正如中国官方所称，这次农民消费的补贴方案将让境况不佳的中国出口业找到一个新的、广阔的市场。这一方案将能够降低中国家用电器过剩的生产力。同时，也能减少一半的出口依赖。而且，这也在人民币增值时期助了制造商一臂之力。早在2007年，该试验就在中国的三个省份进行了。当时，农村家庭能够享受到清单上指定型号的商品的13%的折扣。
该试验原本定于去年（2008年）结束。但中国出口出现大幅缩水，中国政府便决定扩大这一试验的范围。首先是去年12月份，在另外九个省份进行，接着，本月，在全国范围内进行（并且增加了一些商品的种类，比如，有些地区增加了摩托车及电脑）。这次试行将持续四年。然而，到目前为止，这一方案带来的效果还不能从官方那些不让人信服的数据中看出来。在最先进行的三个省份中，截至2008年10月，十一个月里的农村地区所有类别的加油电器的销售量要比去年同期增加了40%。但是，北京的《经济观察报》（The Economic Observer）称这一消费产生的价值只达到了政府预期的40%。来自山东省北贺村（Beihe）的严胜勤（音译）说到，由于政府唯一指定的零售商店太远以及产品又有限制，他和他的邻居们就放弃了购买的想法。
这一方案有许多值得疑问的地方。官方统计现在大约有200万的农民工失业，而他们汇向农村亲戚的钱就是农村消费的主要来源。因此，来自中国社会科学院的胡必量（音译）认为，如果农村收入（其中包括了农民工的收入）今年确实能够增加的话，这或许还是个“好消息”。他还提到，如果政府能把更过的钱投到基础设施建设及卫生保障上就更好了，因为最近在这两个方面的投入远远不够。
甚至一些官方报纸也对这一方案的公平性（为何城市中的贫困居民不能享受同样的折扣优惠？）及对市场自由竞争表示不满。越来越多企业（其中包括了许多外企）的商品登上了优惠清单。但也有人建议可以像台湾尝试的那样，给农民工发放优惠券，这样他们就能够在需要之时购买这些产品，而且，这会更加公平，也更不具官僚作风。现在，申请者们需要到政府相关部门领取购买及户口凭证，而钱在十五个工作日才达到他们的账户上。
政府对此依然期望很高。商务部副部长傅自应在新闻发布会上称，通过该政策，农村地区的商品销售量将增加2.5%。“积极地消费是爱国的体现，而爱国也就是和爱自己”，中国官方期刊《瞭望》这样写到。然而，中国失业的农民们或许还未准备好用这样的方式来纵容自己。
翻译：Rok-Viv AKA.Ｃho克latＥ
（哪里没翻译好，望大家多多指教Q53) ）
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