本帖最后由 酸枣树310 于 2009-3-20 11:40 编辑
【原文标题】China Acting Tough
【登载媒体】wsj.com
【来源地址】http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123723634342746573.html
【译者】荡漾
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，转载请注明译者及出处，谢谢！
【译文】
最近两件与中美两国有关的事件让许多人得出中国正在展示其军事与经济实力的结论。本月初包括两艘巡逻艇、一艘海军侦察船在内的五艘中国船只在国际公海包围了一艘未配备武力的美国监察船，此举违反了国际法。数日后中国总理温家宝呼吁美国“要保证中国资产的安全”。该言论被视为一种威胁，中国可能停止购买或持有美国国债，而美国持续增长的财政赤字所需的资金来源就是国债。
然而这些事件其实是中国外强中干的虚张声势，明显折射出中国脆弱的防御能力及中国明显成为了瞩目的焦点。这与世界各国息息相关，就此而言一个实力薄弱而自信的中国比起一个强大而自信的中国可能要更糟糕。
全球经济危机在中国有着很深的影响。国防开支优先与满足多年投资不足的社会开支的需要发生冲突。中国的海上行动掩盖了中国不可能投入超过其支撑能力水平过多这一事实。中国仍未成为令其烦心的美国显山露水的军事对手。
温总理的经济威胁也需要做更进一步的分析，可能正是隐藏其后的心虚使然。大多数中国外部对其2009年GDP增长的预测在5％左右，仅比2008年官方公布的9％一半稍多。有些经济学家作出评估称中国2008年第四季度的增长率约为1％。
这正引起社会局势的紧张。根据中国社科院2008年底的一份报告称已有超过80000次的抗议、暴力冲突及其它“群体性事件”。中国的经济依赖于出口及外国直接投资，而二者均在下降。中国缺乏完善的社会安全网，而不断增长的老龄人口的负担压在因计划生育国策而人丁不足的这一代身上。
失业也居高不下并不断增加。官方表示8％的经济增长率是保证社会稳定的底线。据《中国经济时报》12月报道称之后每降低一个经济增长点意味着新增800万岗位的失业。
美国占有中国出口份额的20％，创造的美元盈余相当于中国GDP的一半。因此中国投资美国赤字部分原因在于中国需要美元计价的控股。这使得美国和中国形成相互支撑的局面：只要美元还是世界的外汇储备货币，人民币仍旧保持不予兑换但又与美元牢牢挂钩，除了美国国库券或其它美元计价的资产，中国还能有什么选择？既然中国的资产没有其它可靠的选择，中国只能对美国的经济管理发表响亮但冠冕堂皇的言论。
温总理在今年人大会议上有关“中国资产安全”的发言和两年前同一场合他说过的话一致。2007年的3月，当时繁荣的美国经济尚未察觉到即将到来的信用危机，而中国经济的年增长率超过10％，温总理就发出警告称中国的经济是“不稳定、不平衡、不协调且不持续”的。那个时候人们并未当回事，但现在世界开始倾听。
注：作者Shaheen女士系华盛顿美国台湾研究所前主席，现任经营亚洲市场的咨询公司美国亚洲国际股份公司的主席。
【原文】 (by Therese Shaneen)
Two recent events involving China and the United States have led many to conclude that Beijing is flexing its military and economic muscles. Earlier this month, five Chinese ships, including two patrol boats and one navy intelligence ship, surrounded an unarmed U.S. surveillance ship in international waters, a violation of international law. Days later, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called on the U.S. "to . . . ensure the safety of Chinese assets." The comment was seen as a threat that China may stop buying or holding the Treasury debt that is financing growing U.S. deficits.
These incidents, however, are weaknesses masquerading as strength. Each highlights Chinese vulnerability and deep-seated concern in Beijing. This has implications in foreign capitals everywhere, for the one thing worse than a strong, assertive China may be a weak, assertive China.
The global economic crisis is having a profound impact in China. Defense spending priorities will come into conflict with the need to address years of underinvestment in social spending. The Chinese naval action obscures the fact that China can't project much power beyond its own shores. The U.S., for all its distractions, has no peer military competitor.
Mr. Wen's economic saber rattling also begs closer scrutiny of the underlying weakness that likely prompted it. Most external estimates for China's 2009 GDP growth hover around 5%, just over half the official 9% rate in 2008. Several economists assessed growth at about 1% in the fourth quarter of 2008.
This is creating social tension. According to a report by the Chinese Academy of Sciences in late 2008, there were more than 80,000 protests, riots, and other "mass incidents." China's economy depends upon exports and foreign direct investment, both of which are in decline. There is no serious social safety net, and an aging population is being supported by too few people in a generation ravaged by the official one-child policy.
Unemployment is high and growing. The official view is that 8% growth is the minimum needed to ensure social stability. As reported in December in the official China Economic Times, every one percentage-point drop in economic growth below that level means eight million lost jobs.
The U.S. absorbs some 20% of Chinese exports, creating dollar surpluses in China of as much as half of Chinese GDP. Thus, Chinese investment in U.S. deficits is partly the result of China's need for U.S. denominated holdings. In effect, the U.S. and China are propping each other up: As long as the dollar is the world's reserve currency, and the Chinese yuan remains essentially non-convertible but roughly pegged to the U.S. dollar, what choice but U.S. Treasuries or other dollar-denominated assets does China have? Since taking its money elsewhere isn't a viable option, Beijing can only stand by issuing strong-sounding pronouncements about Washington's economic stewardship.
Mr. Wen's comments about "the safety of Chinese assets" at the National People's Congress this year is consistent with what he said in the same venue two years ago. In March 2007, with the U.S. economic juggernaut generally unaware of the credit iceberg ahead, and with China growing by more than 10% a year -- Mr. Wen warned that China's economy is "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable." Not much attention was paid then, but the world is listening now.
Ms. Shaheen is the former chairman of the American Institute of Taiwan in Washington D.C. and is chairman of U.S. Asia International, Inc., a consulting firm that does business in Asia.
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发表于 2009-3-19 18:30
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