【温哥华太阳报】Swine flu jeopardizes lucrative summer entertainment season

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Swine flu jeopardizes lucrative summer entertainment season
http://www.vancouversun.com/Swine+jeopardizes+lucrative+summer+entertainment+season/1554755/story.html

By Larissa Liepins and Jay Stone, Canwest News Service May 1, 2009 1:25 PM


A marble skeleton is seen in Santa Maria del Popolo church, which plays a part in the Da Vinci Code sequel, Angels & Demons. Photograph by: Chris Helgren , Reuters

With its potential to thwart the biggest money-making season for everything from concert tours and blockbuster movies, to theatre productions and festivals, the swine flu looms large over the entertainment industry’s summer prospects.

The World Health Organization has issued a level-five pandemic alert for the swine flu — one stage below a full-blown pandemic, when a disease is considered common among the general population. If that happens, it could spell trouble for the entertainment business.

“I think a pandemic would have an immediate and profound impact on these industries,” said Michael Mulvey, a marketing and social-trends expert at the Telfer School of Management at the University of Ottawa. “I think a considerable segment of people would avoid going to concerts and movie theatres, because most entertainment consumables are elective expenditures.

“You could watch a movie at home, for instance. You don’t even have to go to your local Blockbuster store anymore to rent; you can download movies,”Mulvey added. “Home is a sanctuary, a place people fall back to in times of crisis and unease. It happened during the SARS crisis and after 9/11, too, when people avoided public spaces.”

The major U.S. movie studios, gearing up for the lucrative summer box-office season, continue to monitor the swine-flu situation in Mexico and the rest of the world. In one week, Paramount's Star Trek is scheduled to open globally, and Warner Brother's Terminator Salvation is set to hit theatres May 20.

Twentieth Century Fox already postponed the Wednesday premiere of X-Men Origins: Wolverine in Mexico City, and delayed the theatrical opening scheduled for Friday, just as the Mexican government asked residents to stay at home, closing schools and the country's movie theatre chains. The Mexican release of Star Trek has also been delayed, while Sony has reportedly pushed back two of the country’s opening dates: the Da Vinci Code sequel Angels & Demons from May 15 to June 12, and Terminator Salvation from June 5 to July 31.

"We have been closely monitoring the situation in Mexico all week," Sony spokesperson Steve Elzer told E! News.
If the measures taken in Mexico City to curb public gatherings are expanded elsewhere, it could be problematic for film-release schedules.

“From the movie studios’ perspective, it would be a big deal to shift release dates, because the blockbusters are synchronized worldwide and run on a really tight schedule,”Mulvey said.

In the case of concert promoters, he said he hopes they’re well-insured, noting the large cost involved in tours. “But to some extent, they have to accept responsibility for their patrons; it’s a human right,” Mulvey added. “And they don’t want to put their customers at risk, because they want them to be there for the future.”

One movie box-office expert said it’s too early to predict the consequences of a swine-flu scare.

“Certainly, something like this isn’t positive for the industry in general — or any business in general that requires people to go outside the home,” said Paul Dergarabedian of Media by Numbers, the box-office tracking company.

Dergarabedian says people are being cautious and washing their hands more, but added, “I think when Star Trek or Wolverine opens, I’d be really surprised if the hard-core fans, or even just the audience that would flock to a movie like that, would suddenly not want to go because of that. I just don’t see that happening. Just try to keep Wolverine fans or Star Trek fans away from the movie theatre.”

The flu has already had an effect on at least one North American concert. According to DelawareOnline.com, a show by rappers Young Jeezy and Drake at the University of Delaware was called off after at least 10 students on the school's campus were suspected to be carrying the virus.

And what might happen to fans who’ve already bought tickets?

“For people who’ve already doled out money for upcoming events, such as the Bob Dylan and Fleetwood Mac concerts, you have to decide: Should you stay or should you go? Are you in the infection’s target group? How contagious is it?”Mulvey said.

“People learn to manage risk. There was a lot of hyper-sensationalism with West Nile Virus, but it didn’t stop people from camping and boating. They just get smarter and more proactive to protect themselves.”

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

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