【商业周刊】China Looms Large in India's Election

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China Looms Large in India's Election
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/may2009/gb20090512_710052.htm

India May 12, 2009, 10:43AM EST By Mehul Srivastava

India's larger, richer neighbor figures prominently in the Congress Party's and the BJP's rhetoric about security and the economy

linkedin connections Call it the Giant-Next-Door complex. While the world worries about India and China eating its lunch, India, for its part, keeps a wary eye on China. For India it's a decades-old habit, this anxious concern about its larger, more prosperous neighbor. India came out on the losing side of a border war in the 1960s between the two Asian giants, and many Indians have questioned Chinese motives ever since. Just in the past year, New Delhi has clashed with Beijing over trade issues, banning Chinese toy imports amid allegations of tainted chemicals, and fretted publicly over China's overt support of India's archrival, Pakistan. The Chinese, for their part, have continued to challenge Indian ownership of the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which the Chinese refer to as South Tibet. In another border dispute, China claims the Siachen glacier, which makes up almost one-third of the disputed state of Kashmir, which Pakistan also claims. Beijing has also repeated protests about India's providing sanctuary to the Dalai Lama.

With India's monthlong national elections wrapping up on May 16, China is again figuring prominently in the national conversation. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has repeatedly said (most recently during the release of the Congress Party's election manifesto last month) that "with the right set of reforms and the right political party, India can do even better than China." After the Chinese Foreign Ministry in April referred to Nepal and Sri Lanka as "friendly neighbors of China" that Beijing wants to help "maintain their sovereignty," India's Home Minister, P. Chidambaram, issued a furious response, telling the Hindustan Times that "China is fishing in troubled waters." This wasn't the first time Chidambaram had targeted China. Last year, while lobbying members of Parliament to support a controversial nuclear-power deal with the U.S., he raised the Chinese bogeyman. "I don't want to be envious of China," he told his colleagues, arguing the deal would allow India to erase its electricity shortfalls and catch up with China's economy.

Info Tech Rivalry

The opposition also sees the advantages of playing the China card. L.K. Advani, leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party, regularly blames Congress for holding back India's growth, pointing to how much better the Chinese have done. Advani promises to do more for the one sector in which India has an undeniable lead over China—the IT industry. "If China can beat the world in the physical infrastructure, India can beat the world in IT infrastructure," he wrote in a manifesto that detailed plans to enhance rural access to IT services. Advani, 81, told an election rally on May 3 that his party had advocated back in the 1960s the need for India to develop nuclear weapons to match China's. India lost a short war with China in 1965 but defeated Pakistan in three separate wars. "The same [victory] could have happened in case of China, had India had an atom bomb," he said, according to the Press Trust of India.

India's China fixation is part insecurity, part blindness, says Razeen Sally, a professor at the London School of Economics who has written extensively about India. While the world lumps India and China together, he argues, the countries are worlds apart. "If you look at the hard numbers, China is not only ahead of India, but it has also been widening" the gap, Sally says. "On every big measure you look at—living standards, international trade, foreign investments, infrastructure, the business climate, trading procedures, all the way to carbon emissions—you see not just that China is further ahead from India, but the gap has grown."

China entered the 1980s with many of the same problems that plagued India. Both had a large, impoverished rural population, few exports, and a weak currency. But in the years since then, China has expanded its economy to approximately three times that of India's, to $3.42 trillion, in 2008. Only the U.S., Japan, and Germany are larger. China exports about 10 times as many goods as India, spends six times as much on infrastructure, and has a lower percentage of its population living in poverty. "The challenges are very similar: basically the ability to move hundreds of millions out of subsistence agriculture to non-agriculture jobs, and to sustain that for a long time," says Subir Gokarn, Asia Pacific chief economist for Standard & Poor's, which, like BusinessWeek, is a unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies (MHP). "India has not had the same success in translating growth into non-agricultural employment."

Towering Chinese Economic Clout

The two countries' response to the global recession shows how India's slower rate of growth puts it at a disadvantage to China. Both countries announced big fiscal stimulus packages last year, but China's was more than 10 times larger than India's—$568 billion compared with India's $50 billion. Even that relatively small amount put India's budget deficit at more than 10% of gross domestic product and prompted a scolding from ratings agencies that downgraded the outlook on Indian government debt. Beijing received no such reprimand. China's stimulus package was infrastructure-focused, but India's was more along the lines of tax breaks.

Politicians from Singh's government argue that, despite the less ambitious focus of India's plan, the stimulus nonetheless has proved effective. India's banks are lending again, some economic activity is picking up, and India's benchmark Sensex stock index is up 26% for the year, after falling 52% in 2008. Members of the opposition still call for India to take a page from Beijing's playbook and start spending a lot more on infrastructure projects. India's infrastructure needs for the next five years are estimated at more than $500 billion, which includes roads, airports, railroads, and power projects. The BJP says it plans to build 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) of road every day. "How do we handle this economic crisis? What you require in India is for the government to come out at the forefront," says Arun Jaitley, the BJP general secretary. "Whether through a public-private partnership model or just through public spending, you have to prime up the economy through infrastructure spending."

Economists say India needs to make further reforms, though, if the country hopes to close the gap with China. "The aspiration to do things the way the Chinese do is a realistic one, not a fantasy" says Gokarn. "But there are certain kinds of investments that you have to make in your infrastructure, in your labor markets, and in other areas. Only that will allow this transition to happen."

Srivastava reports for BusinessWeek from New Delhi.

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tony1984

The aspiration to do things the way the Chinese do is a realistic one, not a fantasy
引用这句，“中国人希望去做的事情是现实的 ，而不是一种幻想！”反观印度，以为有了民主就有了一切，如文中所说，计划一天建设20公里公路，我想这个也有点难吧！

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环球时报翻了这篇

印度大选两党打中国牌 “超越中国”成最热口号

http://news.sohu.com/20090513/n263944367.shtml

　　环球时报特约记者李雪报道 历时一个月的印度大选投票当地时间13日刚刚结束，16日，印度选举委员会将宣布计票结果。据美国媒体报道称，为了在激烈的竞争中取得更多的选 票，印度各政党纷纷使出浑身解数。作为在印度政坛具有非常巨大影响力的两大党派，印度国 大党和印度人民党同时打出“中国牌”来获取高投票率。

　　印度本次长达30天的马拉松议会选举中，中国成为整个印度政坛讨论的热门话题。印度总理辛格在上月代表国大党发表宣言时反复强调：如果印度实行正确的改革方案以及选择合适的政党来实行，印度最终可以超过中国。在得知中国宣布将尼泊尔和斯里兰卡作为友好伙伴以后，印度财政部长奇丹巴拉姆也发表了自己的看法，称“中国在浑水里钓鱼”。这不是奇丹巴拉姆第一次发表有关中国的言论 。去年，印度曾与美国商讨建立核电站的事，这在印度社会引起了众多的争议。他解释说这项举措不含有任何政治意义。我们只是希望利用 核能发电解决印度的电力短缺危机，同时帮助发展印度经济以赶超中国。

　　作为印度国大党的竞争对手，印度人民党也在一直打着中国牌。该党的主席阿德瓦尼一直批评印度现任政府所采取的种种政策。他认为 印度政府的错误施政严重拖累印度经济的发展。他借用中国改革开放所取得的辉煌成就显示中印双方之间的巨大差距。阿德瓦尼说一旦他所 率领的政党取得执政权，他将在印度的IT产业投入重金。因为这是印度目前最有优势的领域。与中国相比，印度的IT产业在世界占据重要的 地位。在他起草的发展计划中，他准备加大农村的信息技术投入，让更多的农民可以使用信息服务。他声称：“如果中国是以强大的公共基 础设施而闻名于世，我们印度就要以庞大的IT服务网络而称霸世界。”

　　今年81岁的阿德瓦尼近日接受记者采访。他说自己的党派希望印度能恢复在上世纪60年代军备竞赛中所表现的积极态度，勇于进取。印 度虽然在1965年的边界争端中输给中国，但它在随后的印巴战争中获取了胜利。“我们要树立信心，在新的领域上夺取胜利。虽然中国目前 发展很快，但我们用于IT业这个在未来非常具有发展前景的秘密武器。”他在采访中说到。

　　英国经济学院的贸易专家拉兹恩·萨利言论称，“如果从各种数字上来比较，中国目前不仅领先于印度，而且正在拉开差距。不管是从居民生活水平，外商投资金额，公共基础建设上来看，还是从经济发展面貌， 贸易法规来比较，中国都远远将印度甩在后面。而且双方的差距越来越大。”

　　标准普尔的亚太首席经济顾问戈卡恩认为，印度想赶超中国的计划很难实现。中印两国应对世界金融危机的举措来看，印度的经济刺激计划要远逊于中国。中国计划投入5680亿美元恢复经济增长。而印度到目前 宣布要投入的金额只有500亿。从实施效果来看，中国的经济刺激方案要有效地多。虽然在这方面存在差距，但印度总理辛格对此计划起到的 效果还是十分满意。印度的银行系统已经逐步恢复运转，股市也在不断上涨。但经济学家估计，如果印度想赶超中国必须在未来5年投资5000 亿美元。这些资金将用于公共基础设施建设。据此分析，印度每天需要修建20公里的公路。印度人民党成员对此充满质疑。

　　经济学家认为，如果要追上中国，印度需要实行进一步的经济改革。不管那个党派在这次选举中获胜都将面临着艰巨的任务。