【美联社】China model for regime of liberalism

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China model for regime of liberalism
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25547659-25837,00.html

May 28, 2009

SEOUL:Impoverished North Korea can liberalise its economy while maintainingits political system if it follows the path taken by China and Vietnam,prominent economist Nouriel Roubini said yesterday.

"Ithink the lesson is that progressive economic opening andliberalisation, even in a formerly centrally controlled economy, canlead to beneficial changes," Professor Roubini said on the sidelines ofa technology forum.

Professor Roubini, from New York University, is one of the few experts to have predicted the global financial crisis.

China and Vietnam have aggressively opened their economies toforeign investment in recent decades, resulting in rapid growth andrising living standards, even as their ruling communist regimes remainin place.

North Korea's economy, meanwhile, has lagged far behind. Thecollapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s deprived it of a keysource of aid and trade. Subsequent economic mismanagement, severeflooding, a famine and a standoff with the international community overits nuclear development have also contributed to its decline.

Professor Roubini said the Chinese model shows how a formerlycentrally planned economy can liberalise without major politicalchanges, and economic openness does not "have to be a threat".

If a government provides jobs and income growth, "your regime canstay stable in power for a long time" and "economic liberalisation canbe beneficial for a country", he said.

Professor Roubini called the success of China, Vietnam and othercountries in the region a testimony to that view. "But I'm not sure(North Korea) would listen to such a message or not," he said,describing as "perverse" the relationship between its economy and "moreaggressive external behaviour".

Bejing might want Pyongyang to take note of Professor Roubini'stutorial as the North Korean nuclear problem that flared this week isChina's to solve. No other country has anything like its influence.

From China's point of view, more sanctions or other pressure thatcould cause the collapse of the North Korean regime are to be feared,as that would send a flood of refugees over the border.

South Korea might feel itself more directly affected by the threatof a nuclear weapon from the North, but China's interests throughoutthe region depend on a resolution.

AP

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