【澳大利亚人报】China's exports in record 26 per cent fall

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China's exports in record 26 per cent fall
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25622777-5018066,00.html

Michael Sainsbury, China correspondent  June 12, 2009

CHINA's exports slumped by a record margin in May, recording the worst performance in more than six years as the financial crisis slashed demand for Chinese products.

The export figures were worse than market expectations for the second month running, slumping 26.4 per cent from a year earlier -- and exceeding last month's fall of 22.6 per cent.

Imports also fell sharply, plummeting 25.2 per cent, surpassing April's 23 per cent decline.

The latest figures have cast fresh doubts on China's economy and increased pressure on the government to boost domestic consumption.

"This was the worst (export) performance in at least six years, and well below the consensus for 23 per cent," ANZ Bank analyst Chang Wie Liang said.

"Price developments should have lifted the value of exports, suggesting a much larger impact in volume terms."
The data underscored an unhealthy shift in the composition of demand towards public investment and away from private business investment and exports, Royal Bank of Scotland economist Ben Simpfendorfer said.

"Exports remain weak, but a high base of comparison exaggerates the year on year rate of deterioration," he said.
"Fixed investment was strong, but mainly on fiscal deficit spending, while anecdote indicates that private business investment is likely to be contracting as factory utilisation and profits fall."

However, figures released yesterday also showed that China's spending on factories, property and roads surged by the most in five years, as the government's 4 trillion yuan ($722 billion) stimulus package countered a record slump in exports. China's urban fixed-asset investment in the first five months rose 32.9 per cent year on year to 5.352 trillion yuan.

Earlier this week the policy thinktank for China's cabinet warned that the country's economic recovery would be mild and unstable.

JPMorgan China equities chief Jing Ulrich said the health of the consumer economy in the US, China's largest export destination, accounting for 18 per cent of total volume, remained uncertain.

US retail sales shrank by 0.4 per cent in April, but the US Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose from 40.8 in April to 54.9 in May -- the biggest monthly jump since April 2003.

"Unsurprisingly, infrastructure investment has shown the greatest momentum," Ms Ulrich said.

"The full economic impact of China's stimulus-driven infrastructure expansion is likely to become more apparent in the second half of 2009, but there is little that the government can do about weak external demand, except to offer exporters support through tax benefits and VAT rebates.

"For China's nascent economic recovery to be sustainable beyond the short term, policymakers must take steps to ensure that consumption remains on a firm growth trajectory, and that the investment boom does not exACerbate the economy's structural imbalances."

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