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本帖最后由 rhapsody 于 2009-9-19 00:21 编辑
【声明】本帖三篇译文供Anti-CNN使用,未经AC或译者许可,谢绝转载。谢谢合作!
【前言】这是德国外交政策网于今年六七月间发表的三篇文章,这三新篇既有其内在联系,又与先前翻译过的那四篇存在关联。
【致谢】感谢音乐盒TX在翻译过程中给予了本人很多建设性的意见。{:10_400:}
【中文标题】变形记
【原文标题】Metamorphoses
【登载媒体】德国外交政策网(www.german-foreign-policy.com)
【来源地址】http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/56258
【译者】rhapsody
2009/06/19
BERLIN (Own report) - The German foreign intelligence service is predicting shifts in the global power constellation and is demanding "a geo-strategic debate in Germany." According to a classified Federal Intelligence Service (BND) study, the collapse of the western national economies, whose recuperation is unpredictable, could lead to a drastic acceleration of China's rise and the decline of West Germany's long-term primary ally, the United States. This intelligence service paper is being currently discussed in Berlin and excerpts have been leaked to the press to prepare public opinion for possible changes in global policy orientation. "A long-term global crisis" cannot, for the moment, be excluded, assesses the BND, who, if this happens, is anticipating "massive unemployment and movements of migration in unprecedented dimensions" as well as an escalation of nationalism and very serious international tensions. An essential question, for the future global conflict constellations, according to this paper, will be if Russia can be bound to the West or if Moscow will go over to the Chinese adversary.
德国情报机构预测全球大国版图将发生斗转星移,并引发了“德国境内的一场地缘策略辩论”。根据联邦情报局(德语Bundes Nachrichten Dienst,简称BND)的一项机密研究,西方国家经济的坍塌(复苏尚无法预期),可能大大加速中国的崛起,而导致西德的长期主要盟友——美国的衰落。这篇情报部门的文章现时正在柏林进行讨论,而一些摘录的段落已经泄露到了新闻界,以使民意做好对全球政策定位可能转变的准备。联邦情报局估计,“长期的全球危机”暂时还无法排除;而如果这危机真的发生了,联邦情报局预期将会有“史无前例的庞大规模的失业和移民潮”,以及民族主义情绪的高涨和相当严重的国际间紧张态势。文章中对于未来全球冲突版图的一个基本问题,是俄罗斯会追随西方,还是会转向中国这个对手。
The Asian Century
亚洲世纪
The "confidential" BND study on the effects of the world economic crisis on global power constellations has been discussed in Berlin's government circles since last spring. The gist of the paper is now being expounded upon in the specialized periodical "Internationale Politik" to "generate a geo-strategic debate in Germany."[1] The journal's preface explains that "the world economic crisis is accelerating the dawn of the 'Asian Century.' The global balance of power is being shifted to the East."[2] In its study, the BND developed various scenarios on how this shift could take place. "We are possibly experiencing a geopolitical metamorphosis"[3] summarized BND President, Ernst Uhrlau, the anticipated serious transformations in the international system of states - having recourse to terminology rich in German tradition. Both German attempts to conquer world power last century, were accompanied by "geopolitical" contemplations. For decades, following the Second World War, that term fell into desuetude, until it suffered a renaissance in the 1990s.
这项联邦情报局关于世界经济危机对全球大国版图影响的“机密”研究从今年春天就开始在柏林的政府界中进行讨论了。而现在文章的主旨被“国际政治”这份专门期刊所详细引述,“在德国激起了一场地缘策略的辩论”。期刊的前言阐述了“世界经济危机正加速‘亚洲世纪’黎明的到来;全球力量的平衡正转移到东方”。在这项研究里,联邦情报局对于这种转移刻画了几种不同的剧本。“我们可能正在经历一次地缘政治的变形”,联邦情报局局长恩斯特·乌尔劳概括道。他用这样一个有着浓厚德国传统的术语描述了所预见到的国际体系的重大转变。上世纪德国两次试图征服世界,都带有“地缘政治”的盘算。二次世界大战后的几十年来,这一词汇被废弃了,直到上世纪90年代又重新出现。
Shift Eastward
向东转移
The BND study's "Scenario No. 1", parts from the premise of "a recuperation of the market situation and a return of confidence in the world's economy".[4] Even though, in this scenario, the USA will be able to still maintain its predominance "for awhile," this will have "no influence" on "China's steady rise," according to the BND. "The weight between the major blocks: the USA, the EU and China" will inevitably "slowly shift eastward," predicts the German foreign intelligence service. This paper's "Scenario No. 1," which the authors doubt will materialize, includes an enhanced margin of maneuver for the most important exporters of raw materials, such as Russia, the Arab countries, Iran and Venezuela, due to their increase in prosperity as well as the rise in the price of raw materials, "with all the advantages and disadvantages that this would entail." This could lead particularly Venezuela and Russia to "act more self-confident on the political stage," warns the BND.
联邦情报局研究成果的“一号剧本”,是以“市场状况的复苏和对世界经济信心的回升”为前提。尽管在这个剧本里,美国依然可以“暂时”保住自己的统治地位,但这“丝毫不会影响”到“中国的稳步崛起”,根据联邦情报局的说法。“主要区域间的比重:美国、欧盟以及中国”将无可避免地“缓慢向东倾斜”,德国对外情报机关预测道。文中的“一号剧本”(作者质疑能否实现),其内容还包括:最重要的原材料出口国,如俄罗斯、阿拉伯诸国、伊朗和委内瑞拉,由于其财富的增长和原材料价格的上升,会加强其机动能力,而“这会引致一系列有利和不利影响”。这尤其可能使得委内瑞拉和俄罗斯“在政治舞台上表现得更自信”,联邦情报局警告道。
The China Scenario
中国剧本
According to the BND, "Scenario No. 2" would be "much less pleasant." The unprecedented billions of US dollars in bailouts could be a complete flop, the infamous excessive indebtedness of the US credit card could burst new finance bubbles, pulling the economy further into the abyss. If, in spite of the West's collapse, China succeeds in continuing its technological race to catch up, it "will very rapidly rise to become the predominating power in Asia." Whereas the USA has been forced to limit "its radius of action sooner than planned, out of financial considerations" Beijing could play its winning hand throughout the international arena. "The stronger China, and the weaker the USA appear" the more unambiguously many states could begin "to politically orient themselves" on the East, warns the BND. Decisive in this question is in which direction Russia will turn. The foreign intelligence service hopes that Moscow will stick with the West "to avoid having to take on the role of the ascending China's junior partner." But it is also imaginable that Russia will "rely offensively on Peking."[5] Berlin's "Strategic Community" has been contemplating this possibility for some time. Last year the Federal College for Security Studies openly speculated about a "threat of military conflict" between the West (EU, USA) and the East (China, Russia). (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[6])
根据联邦情报局的说法,“二号剧本”会“让人不愉快得多”。史无前例的数十亿美元计的救市计划可能彻底失败,声名狼藉、过度负债的美国信用卡可能爆发新的金融泡沫,将经济进一步拉进万丈深渊。如果,中国能不受西方垮台的影响,而能成功推进自己在技术上的追赶脚步的话,它“将迅速上升为亚洲的支配力量”。美国会被迫限制“其行动的范围,比其预计的更快,出于财政上的考虑”,而北京却能在国际舞台上施展胜手。联邦情报局警告道,“中国越强,而美国看起来越弱”的话,就会有更多国家毫不含糊地开始“调整其政治方向”而转向东方。在这一问题上起决定性作用的是俄罗斯选择转向哪一方。对外情报机关希望莫斯科当局会继续支持西方,“以免成为崛起的中国的小伙伴”。但同样可以想像得到的是,俄罗斯会“强烈地依赖中国”。柏林的“战略团体”思索这种可能性也已经有些时日了。去年联邦安全研究学院就公开猜测西方(欧盟、美国)和东方(中国、俄罗斯)之间“军事冲突的威胁”(德国外交政策网曾报道过)。
World War Potential
潜在世界大战
Whereas the intelligence service officially anticipates a development between Scenarios No. 1 and 2, they have also discovered tendencies that could make a "Scenario No. 3." This scenario predicts "a long-term global crisis" that would lead to an extensive re-nationalization of the world's economies. As a matter of fact, over the past few months, imports and exports in Germany, China, and Japan have dramatically collapsed. If this crisis endures, it could lead to the spread of "political instability" in countries furnishing raw materials due to a lack of exports. In such a case, China would also be threatened with an "unprecedented massive unemployment and movements of migration." The BND anticipates that China - as well as Russia - could pass through this period "by fomenting nationalism" to "redirect [domestic] aggressions toward overseas," eventually even against the West. "One needs little imagination, to picture the conflict that could evolve, for example with the USA" the paper explains in reference to "Scenario No. 3's" potential for a world war.[7]
尽管情报机构表示预见到了介于一号剧本和二号剧本之间的一类发展,他们也同样发现了可以构成“三号剧本”的趋势。这个剧本预测“一场长期全球危机”的到来,将导致全世界众多经济体的大幅重新国有化。事实上,在过去几个月以来,德国、中国和日本的进出口都出现了剧烈暴跌。如果这一危机持续下去,将可能导致一些盛产原材料的国家由于缺乏出口而出现“政治不稳”的蔓延之势。在这种情况下,中国同样会受到“史无前例的大规模失业和移民潮”的威胁。联邦情报机关预计中国——以及俄罗斯——可能“通过扶植民族主义”来度过这一时期,从而“将(国内的)敌对情绪转向海外”,最终甚至会反对西方。“人们无需想象,就能设想出,比如,冲突可能会对美国展开。”文章关于“三号剧本”中世界大战的潜在可能性就是这么论述的。
Prompter
提词员
The BND's three scenarios point out the basic lines of Berlin's debate on the global political development for the next few years and decades. The few elements of this study that have been divulged to the public, pass in silence over German tendencies in the domestic crisis - here too nationalism is on the rise [8] - along with the aggressive potential in Berlin's foreign policy. Nonetheless the initiator of the study provides elements of what can be expected in German domestic developments. It was not one of Berlin's political establishment think tanks or one of the large foundations of private corporations that provided the German government with this study on the expected shifts in global power constellations. It was the foreign intelligence service, whose influence over the past decade has already significantly grown. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[9]) Once again, the main prompter proves to be the repressive and espionage apparatus, rather than the civilian establishment in Berlin.
联邦情报局提出的上述三个剧本勾勒出了柏林当局对未来数年以至数十年的全球政治发展的辩论的三条主轴。这项研究已经有一些要素泄露到公开场合,但在德国国内危机趋势方面则是陷于缄默——这里的民族主义同样在增长——伴随着柏林当局外交政策的攻击性潜质。但无论如何,这项研究的发起者还是提供了德国国内发展一些可以期望的要素。提供给德国政府这项关于全球大国版图变动研究的机构既不是柏林的政治机构智库;也不是是私人公司的大型基金会;而是对外情报机关,其影响力在过去十年里已有了显著提升(德国外交政策网曾报道过)。这再一次证明了主要的提词员是镇压和谍报机关,而非柏林的民间机构。 |
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