【2009.09.25 外交政策网】Winners and losers: special global back-to-school edition

rhapsody

Winners and losers: special global back-to-school edition
Fri, 09/25/2009 - 5:45pm
http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/09/25/winners_and_losers_special_global_back_to_school_edition

The United Nations General Assembly meeting is like back-to-school week for the international community. Heads of state gather in New York, disrupt traffic and battle for air time. The feeling has only been enhanced by the satellite meetings that have cropped up in the vicinity of the U.N. (and I don't just mean the festive "Death to the Dictator" brunch that is held daily across First Avenue from the United Nations campus.) The Clinton Global Initiative comes to mind. And then this year, the all that was given an added dollop of bilateral and multilateral schlag thanks to the addition of the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh.

And just like any first week back at school, some people emerged as obvious winners and others were clearly losers who would probably all have to sit together in the geopolitical cafeteria, ostracized and abused by all "the mean girls" of the international community. In order to help you know who was helped by the past week and who was not, I've prepared a little list. Here goes:

Winners:

Barack Obama: The U.N. speech was great but better still was the sense that he is coming into his own as a statesman. He has gone from being a celebrity curiosity to being the legitimate leader of the pack. His bilateral meetings showed deftness. His Security Council resolution sent an important message. He revealed a U.S. more committed to multilateralism than seemingly any time since 1946. He even proved that it was he rather than Jay Leno who could handle being on tv every night of the week without turning off the viewing public.  

Bibi Netanyahu: Betcha didn't expect to see him on this list. And the haters will continue to hate on him. But you have to admit... go on just try to be objective for a second... it was a good week for an Israeli leader who hasn't had a good week in while. The meetings with the U.S. and the Palestinians went pretty well. At least for a while it looked like Obama was relenting on the settlements. His speech was great and pulling out the Auschwitz plans as he demolished Ahmadinejad was powerful stuff. But the coup de grace came when after being seen as an often isolated voice of alarm on Iran's nuclear program, the truth came to light and his view could be dismissed no longer.  

Hu Jintao: In April, China balked at assertions they were part of a G-2. But behind the scenes they have prepared for a more polished and assertive international role. This week was a kind of coming out party for those efforts. Hu claimed the spotlight and plenty of support for his speech on climate. The U.S. team was super-impressed by what they viewed as the best Chinese team fielded at an any international meeting in memory even though the Chinese pulled no punches in the sessions. And all this hubbub about the G20 was more than anything about the ascendancy of the Chinese.

G-20: That said, it's no small deal that the G-8 got formally bumped aside by the G-20 as the lead forum for coordinating international economic policy. Admittedly, it's not really news ... it's just the governments catching up with the changing reality of the international system. And also you have to admit that we've got the G20 because no one wanted to make hard choices about who not to include (the Italians, Mexicans, and Argentines for example are inclined to get really emotional about these things). And it is likely to be pretty unwieldly and will undoubtedly generate a host of sub-committees and informal structures (look for the U.S., China, the EU and Japan to drive the process). But it is actually common-sensical and welcomed by virtually all.  

Hillary Clinton: On the one hand, she actually got Rahm to be polite and give up his seat to her behind the president at the Security Council. On the other, her appearances as the other most public face of U.S. foreign policy and her appearance at the test ban talks went very well. And the president seems to have ever-increasing confidence in her. (While we know she can't say it publicly, on some level she also have to feel pretty good that much of what she said on the campaign trail about the nature and conduct of U.S. foreign policy seems to be ringing true. I'll leave it at that. I'm just saying...)

Susan Rice: The U.S. U.N. Ambassador has had a pretty low-profile so far but this was a good week for her boss on her home turf and that reflects very well on her.  Her public statements were excellent and she displayed an admirable and unmistakable toughness. In fact, my only critique is that given her very good sense of humor, she could lighten it up a bit during interviews. Only downside: the vibe between her and the Secretary of State as they sat together at events seemed, shall we say, a bit chilly.

Losers:

Barack Obama: How can you be the big winner and the big loser in a week? Easy, try being President of the United States. Everything lands at your doorstep ... both credit and blame. On the downside, a growing chorus of discontent that he's known the Afghanistan decision was coming for months and that yet the White House seems to be dithering (they call it taking their time but critics fulminate that "lives are stake"). The statement on Iran was crisp (see below) but also toothless. Engagement is hanging in the balance.  We can reiterate our openness all we want but sooner or later it has to work or we have to move to plan B.

Muammar Qaddafi: After a few years when Libya seemed to be wanting to go mainstream, in a few weeks all the progress has been undone.  First, the disgusting welcome home for the country's hired killer who blew up Pan Am Flight 103. Then, Muammar can't find a tent to call his own in the NYC area. And finally, he makes his big appearance at the U.N. and after rambling on for 90 minutes he convinces the world yet again that he is nuttier than a Snickers bar. (And seriously, dude, dying the goatee is not working for you. Your hair was never that color. No one's ever was.)

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: In the lunatic sweepstakes, Ahmadinejad actually probably wins because while he may not be quite as clinically deranged as Qaddafi he is much more dangerous. This week we saw more Holocaust denial followed by a U.N. performance that seemed to have been conceived just to make his enemies look good. Across from the U.N. he was bitterly denounced.  And then there was the little matter of having to admit to the world... again...t hat they had been lying about their nuclear program. Watch out, Kim Jong-Il, Mahmoud is making a move on the title of world's most despised threat to humanity. In fact, he may already be there.

Gordon Brown: Getting rebuffed by the White House five times while requesting a meeting with the Big Man can't feel good. It especially can't feel good while your career is circling the drain back home. In fact, for a while there it looked like Gordon might never get to see Barack were it not for Iran's nuclear misdeeds bringing them together on stage Friday morning. But Gordon was strong on stage (in fact he and Sarkozy were both stronger than Obama) and then a bilateral was set up for later in the day. So, the P.M.'s week ended happier than it started.

G-8: Rest in peace, G8. You'll still play a role on security issues ... but seriously, how much longer can that last. Security discussions without China? Hah. Or security discussions on a top problem like Pakistan without India? Nah. The G8 is simply an idea that has been overtaken by events. In high school parlance, it's so five minute's ago. (Sadly, of course, so is that expression. Or maybe that's not so sad.)

Greg Craig: White House Counsel Craig is taking the fall for not keeping President Obama's Gitmo plans on track. According to the Washington Post, he wants a diplomatic post. But try working that out with a State Department run by a woman whose memory extends back to the campaign and your not very well received decision not to back her. Craig's a talented guy and an asset the administration should not want to lose ... but right now, he's in a pretty uncomfortable place.