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本帖最后由 rhapsody 于 2009-9-27 20:27 编辑
【中文标题】全球系统性危机：追寻不可能的复苏
【原文标题】Global systemic crisis: In pursuit of the impossible recovery
【发布机构】LEAP/E2020（欧洲政治研究实验室）
【登载媒体】第37期《欧洲综合预测报告》（2009年9月）
【来源地址】http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-37 ... recovery_a3797.html
【原文库链接】
【译者】rhapsody
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，谢绝转载。谢谢合作！
【前言】这是LEAP最新一期的文章（2009.9.16发布），依旧是一贯的悲观论调（可以比较之前发布的两篇），但也一如既往地提供了一些新论据
【译文】
Before this summer, LEAP/E2020's team announced that there would be no recovery in sight in September 2009, and not until summer 2010 in any event. Well indeed, contrary to the claims of the media, and financial and political circles, we confirm our anticipation.
今夏之前，LEAP/E2020团队说过2009年9月将看不到复苏的迹象，而且2010年夏天之前也看不到，不管是在什么情况下。的确，与媒体、金融界和政界所声称的相反，我们确认了自己的预测。
The slowdown in the speed of collapse of the global economy, at the origin of all the « good news » (1), is only due to the world's enormous public financial effort of the last twelve months (2). But the « time saved » using taxpayers' money around the world should have been dedicated to redesigning the international monetary system at the heart of the current systemic crisis (3). Yet, besides a few cosmetic considerations (4) and huge gifts to US and European banks, nothing serious has been undertaken, and, when it comes to the future, the « every man for himself » rule prevails (5).
全球经济崩溃的速度减缓，亦即所有“好消息”的来源，只是过去十二个月全世界庞大的公共财政努力的结果。但用世界范围内纳税人资金“挽救下来的时间”本应用于重新规划处于当前系统性危机中心的国际货币体系。但是，除了给美国和欧洲的银行一些摆摆样子的提议，还有巨额款项的大礼以外，并未采取任何重大的措施。而到了未来的时候，“人人只顾自己”这一准则会大行其道。
Now, as summer 2009 comes to a close, and as the three rogue waves start impacting the global economy hard (unemployment (6), bankruptcies (7) and monetary shocks (8)), the time to mend the system, or to prepare for a soft transition towards a new global system, is over (9). The first signs of a major decoupling (10) are beginning to appear: the rest of the world is rapidly moving away from the Dollar zone. As shown by the chart below, there is a 95 percent chance that 1,000 billion new USDs will be printed in a very near future... not very attractive for the Dollar zone.
现在，当2009年夏季已近尾声，三股巨浪开始对世界经济产生严重影响（失业、破产与货币冲击）之时，修整体系或准备好朝新的全球体系进行软着陆的时机，已经过去了。大分离的第一个信号开始显现出来：世界其余地区正迅速远离美元区。正如下边图表所显示的那样，近期新发行一万亿美元的可能性有95%……对于美元区来说不是个好消息。
Inconsistent statistics reflect a chaotic world economy
不一致的统计数字彰显混乱的世界经济
We are heading straight to the phase of geopolitical dislocation expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2009 (11). In this issue of the GEAB, our team analyses the trends at work (real estate market, srategic issues…) within the current chaos resulting from a flood of unchecked public expenditure and a persistently uncontrolled financial system in a context of growingly inconsistent statistics. Paradoxically, dislocation has become, according to our researchers, the only way to economic recovery (a recovery that will take place around a global architecture and interaction between economic, social and financial spheres profoundly different from anything we knew in past decades. Our team believes that the first features of the “post-crisis world” should begin to appear by summer 2010 and, in the coming months, they will dedicate themselves to their identification.
我们将径直驶向地缘政治解体的（历史）阶段，预计将于2009年第四季度开始。在本期的《欧洲综合预测通告》中，我们团队分析了在统计数字日渐不一致的背景下现时混乱局面之中的一些趋势（房地产市场、战略议题……），而这种混乱局面是不加约束的公共支出和一直未受拘束的金融体系所造成的。反常地，根据我们研究员的观点，解体已成为经济复苏的唯一途径。我们团队认为“后危机时代的世界”的第一套系列特征会在2010年夏季开始显现，而在接下来几个月，这些特征将会为人所识别。
Meanwhile, as anticipated in the previous editions of the GEAB, no one can now construct a true picture of today’s global economic situation as macroeconomic figures are more and more contradictory or simply absurd (12). Measurement data and instruments have been so manipulated (13) and limited to a volatile US Dollar as sole benchmark (14), that no government, international organisation or bank (15) can now tell in which direction the global system is heading. The media reflect this chaos and contribute to their readers’/auditors’/viewers’ bewilderment: depending on the day, or even the hour, that they give contradictory news on finance, economy or currency. Policy makers, entrepreneurs, employees,… economists or analysts… are reduced to Pascal’s wager (16) to assess what will happen in future months.
与此同时，正如前一期《欧洲综合预测通告》所预见的，无人能够构建一张反映现时全球经济状况的真实画面，由于宏观经济数据变得越来越自相矛盾，或简直是荒诞不经。测量数据和方法过度受到人为操纵，又过于局限在用波动剧烈的美元作为唯一的标尺，以致于没有任何一国政府、一个国际组织或银行现在可以阐明全球体系将朝什么样的方向发展。媒体反映了这样一种混乱局面，也让其读者、审核者、观察者晕头转向：每天，甚至每小时，它们都在给出着相互矛盾的金融、经济和货币方面的新闻。政策制定者、企业家、雇员……经济学家或分析师……在预测未来几个月会发生什么的时候都陷入了帕斯卡尔式打赌[打赌上帝存在，付出的总是有限，而可能获得报酬却是无限的（天堂）；反过来，打赌上帝不存在，付出的代价却可能是无限的（地狱）]的窘境。
Global output, trade and consumer prices (2000 – 2009) – Source: BRI, 2009
2000 – 2009年全球产出（实线）、贸易额（点线）和消费物价（虚线），资料来源：BRI，2009
According to LEAP/E2020, the chart above tells about facts that cannot be ignored: the global economic, financial and monetary system is drifting at an increasing rate, its weakness is reaching unequalled lows in modern history, and the slightest shock (financial, geopolitical or even natural) can now break it apart (17). The States’ breathtaking plunge into bottomless public debt (18) (governments feel that, without the support of public money, world economies would soon resume their collapse) is creating a literally explosive situation, conveying massive tax increase in Japan, Europe, the US… If there is any recovery in sight, it is that of tax. As a matter of fact, confronted to historic unemployment rates and a free-falling economy, Japanese voters decided to dismiss their decade-old leaders: they have probably inaugurated the great political upheaval of the next phase of the crisis (19). This summer, the Obama administration was also surprised to discover the importance of the popular anger which focused on his health system reform programme (though a much needed one).
LEAP/E2020认为，上面的图表反映了一个无法忽略的事实：全球经济、金融和货币体系正在加速漂移，其虚弱程度正触及现代史上无出其右的低点，现在非常微小的（金融的、地缘政治的，甚至自然的）冲击都可能使其分崩离析。各国背负的令人窒息的无底洞般的公共债务（政府觉得没有公共资金支援的话，世界经济很快会回到崩溃的轨道上），正制造出真实的一触即发的形势，并导致日本、欧洲、美国大幅加税……如果真要说能看到任何复苏迹象的话，那也是税收的复苏。事实上，面对历史新高的失业率以及自由落体般的经济，日本选民已决定摒弃其数十年来的执政党：他们可能引发下一阶段危机的政治大动荡。这个夏天，奥巴马政府同样惊讶地发现了民怨的重要性，这些民怨主要集中在其医疗改革计划（尽管是相当必要的）上。
Charter rates for container ships (in USD/day) – Showing the decline between the two first quarters of 2008 and 2009 - Source: Spiegel / ISL Port Monitor
集装箱船舶的租船费率（单位：美元/日）——展示了2008年一季度到2009年一季度之间费率的下降，资料来源：Spiegel / ISL Port Monitor
Here is a very illustrative analogy of the crisis today that imposed itself on our researchers: a rubber ball in a staircase. It seems to rebound on every step (then giving the impression that the fall has stopped) but it falls even lower on the next step, “resuming” its collapse.
我们的研究人员对于现时的危机有个非常形象的比喻：就像楼梯里的橡皮球。这个球似乎在每一级台阶上都能蹦一下（让人感觉下跌已经停止），但总会掉到更低的下一级台阶，“继续”其下跌态势。
“Disoriented” economic players and policy-makers
“迷失方向的”经济博弈者和政策制定者
Of course, all this doesn’t create a favourable investment climate for business. Production capacity is under-used everywhere in historic proportions. Stocks are only renewed at a drip-feed rate (eliminating any hope of a recovery based on their replacement). Consumers have become realistic economically: no money, no purchase. Their salaries fall when they haven’t simply been lost through job losses, the banks don’t lend any more because they know that they themselves are still insolvent (despite the “golden” powder thrown in the eyes of public opinion these last months) (20). The state itself, on its own, cannot substitute itself for the frenetic consumerism of the past. In the US, a return to the previous state would require about USD 2,500 billion pumped into the economy each year. Barak Obama’s stimulus package, less than USD 400 billion a year over two years is far from the amount needed if he has to replace the non-spending of households and businesses. The problem is that this is exactly the present situation of the US economy.
当然，这一切都无法为商业创造有利的投资氛围。从历史规模来看各地的产能都没有得到充分利用。存货更新的速度如同打点滴一般（使得所有建立在其替换之上的复苏希望破灭了）。消费者在经济上已经变得现实了：没有钱，就不买东西。他们的收入减少了，不单是由于失业所致，也是由于银行不愿借钱，因为银行自知负债过度无力偿还（尽管过去几个月里在公众面前以“金色”粉饰）。国家单凭自身力量是无法与过去的疯狂消费相提并论的。美国想要恢复到之前状态的话，每年需为其经济注入约两万五千亿美元。如果想要代替不花钱的家庭和企业的话，巴拉克·奥巴马的刺激计划，两年里每年少于四千亿美元的规模远不能达到所需的数额。问题在于美国经济现时的状况确实如此。
US retail sales during recent recessions (Rebased to 100 at recession inception, duration in months) - Source: Financial Sense, 2009
美国近几次（经济）衰退期间零售的销售额（以衰退开端折算为100的基数，时间按月计），资料来源：Financial Sense，2009
But the US are not alone in this regard. Asia and Europe are also confronted with a drastic unemployment surge that statistical manipulation (21) cannot hide beyond this summer: jobless no longer entitled to unemployment benefits, youngsters placed in waiting internships or jobless recruited for short-term public construction projects, lay-offs postponed by means of short-time allowance measures, plants artificially maintained in activity thanks to public funds,… from Beijing to Paris, in Washington, Berlin, London or Tokyo, every trick is being used to hide the situation as long as possible… until the recovery arrives. Unfortunately, the recovery will not arrive in time. It’s Blücher instead of Grouchy (22). Instead of a recovery in September, the world is suffering the impact of this summer’s three rogue waves:
但从这个角度来看，美国并不是唯一（有问题）的。亚洲和欧洲同样面临着失业急剧上升的严重问题，即便操纵统计数字也无法掩盖到今夏之后：失业者不再享有失业救济；年轻人被置于等待实习或失业境地，或是被招募去参与短期公共建设项目；临时解雇被以短期津贴的形式推迟；工厂幸亏有公帑资助才维持运作……从北京到巴黎，再到华盛顿、柏林、伦敦或东京，都用尽了各种伎俩以尽可能久地掩盖形势……等来的是布吕歇尔，而非格鲁希[滑铁卢战役典故：拿破仑坚信格鲁希会率领援军来帮助自己取得胜利，但结果到来的确是布吕歇尔率领的敌方援军，之后结局怎样想必大家都知道了……]。在九月，世界（经济）并未复苏，而是受到今夏三股巨浪的严重影响：
- massive unemployment, for people soon to be excluded from further benefits in particular, and its disastrous consequences for nations’ political and social stability, are beginning to appear
- 大规模的失业，尤其是对于那些即将被排除在（失业）救济行列之外的人们而言，其对国家政治和社会稳定性造成的灾难性后果正开始浮现；
- the number of bankruptcies (companies, municipalities,…) and deficits of all sorts, are exploding
- 破产的数量（公司、市政……）以及各种各样的赤字，正在激增；
- and, of course, the impact of all this on the US Dollar, Treasuries (and the UK, suffering collateral damage) (23).
- 当然，所有这些对于美元、美国国债（还有英国，连带受到损失）亦会造成影响。
The first wave already reached the shore at the end of summer 2009. The second one is coming up. And the third is beginning to appear on the horizon.
第一股巨浪已于2009年夏末到来。第二股正在浮出水面。而第三股正开始露出端倪。
In any event, if the Eurozone and Asia are in a better situation to face up to the impact of these waves (as already analyzed in GEAB N°28 of last October), their situation is not so good that they can expect a recovery yet. It is however on the US, the Dollar and US Treasuries on the one hand, and on the UK and the Pound on the other , that the consequences of the three waves will be harder. Mid-summer night dreams also have an end!
任何情况下，即使欧元区和亚洲能以更好的状态来应对这几波巨浪的影响（正如去年十月时第28期《欧洲综合预测通告》已分析过的），它们的状况也还没好到可以期待复苏的时候。但是不管对于美国、美元和美国国债，还是对于英国和英镑，三股巨浪造成的后果要严重得多。仲夏夜之梦同样也有醒来的时候！
But for those who still have enough money to travel, the holidays can go on as hotels, airline companies, holiday resorts… are giving discounts at prices never seen before. Another sign that the recovery is here!
但对于那些仍有足够的钱去旅行的人来说，仍可以去度假，因为旅馆、航空公司、度假胜地……都在以前所未见的价格进行打折。又是一个复苏到来的信号！
P.S. 后边的注释暂时就不译了，除了两个与历史典故相关的已放在上文中。 |
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